1. Climate Change, Migration and Political Insurgency The „other“ Arab Spring? The Hamburg Conference, July 16-18 2013, Hamburg University Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de 17.7.2013

2. Changing weather, changing power? First & foremost, Arab Awakening = reaction to out of touch, brutal regimes. No proven direct causality between effects of climate change and „Arab Spring“. However: MENA is already experiencing effects of anthropogenic climate change, like extended droughts, increased water scarcity and decreasing precipitation. Hypothesis 1: Such stressors combined with deficiencies in resource management, political inclusion mechanisms and conflict mitigation strategies could potentially ignite already volatile environments.  Potential accelerant, threat multiplier Variables: management practices, institutional set-up, infrastructure, economic and political context, climate change effects, precipitation etc. Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 2 Climate Change and the Arab Awakening

3. Migration – Coping Strategy gone wild? Migration can function as effective adaptive strategy in times of environmental change and stress, like land degradation, water scarcity, drought etc. Leaving after loss of livelihood can be a means to mitigate hardship. However, mass migration due to loss of livelihood could also contribute to social and political unrest and turn out to be a threat multiplier in certain circumstances. Hypothesis 2: Mass migration movements fuelled the different political insurgencies in the MENA. Method: Interviews, Critical Discourse Analysis Case Studies: Egypt, Syria, Jordan Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 3

4. Climate in the MENA Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 4

5. Case Study Syria Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 5

6. Case Study Syria Interlaced regime political, socio-economic and climatic conditions prior to outbreak Authoritarian rule under Bashar al-Assad from 2000 onwards  decline of Ba‘th party, focus on security apparatus and „crony capitalists“, repression of liberal-secular as well as Kurdish opposition forced economic liberalisation  subvention and expense cuts at the expense of middle and working class; considerable growth of rural-urban divide (Damascus and Aleppo vs. Rest) Islamisation of society  regime legitimation; effects of Iraq war drought 2006-10  rural exodus, new tent and satellite towns (around Damascus and in the South) Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 6

7. Case Study Syria Conflict dynamics Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 7

8. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de Seite 8