2. high climate change impacts in the region, and on-going un-sustainable economic development - state in 2060

3. Description of axes: to unsustainable economy and low cc impacts Key characteristics of scenarios in WB Global and EU context Driving forces (STEEP) Environmental impacts Me - individual in this scenario Newspaper articles

5. poverty negative development deteriorated environment high water scarcity extreme events not managed leading to further deteriorating of economy

6. 2060. S4 scenario description- by driving forces STEEP Social characteristics bipolarization of society to rich and poor, migrations, possible conflicts, poverty, poor education, pandemics, apathy. Technological characteristics further declining of industry, unsustainable technological development, and technologic decline. Economic characteristics decline of GDP, growth of inflation, barter. Environmental characteristics depletion of natural resources, high level of pollution, un-possible adaptation of the ecosystem, land use change, impact of invasive species. Political Characteristics (including security) political insecurities, no perspective, anarchy, corruption, end of rule of law.

7. Risk Threats to risk (according to STEEP categories) Goals 1. Water deficit particularly drinking water (high) -weak governance structures (political) - irrational resource use (social) -ecosystem changes to climate changes (environmental) - temperature rise - water deficit due to pollution -Strengthen governance -Technology advancement 2. Possible riots due to resource lack (medium) -redirecting water resources between upstream and downstream (political, social) -economic impact downstream (economical) -Strengthen regional and international corporation 3. Increase of poverty (high) -rising cost of commodities, energy, due to greater resource demand (environmental, technological, economical) -Strengthen governance -Enforce economic activity 4. Decreasing add blocked capital flow (medium) -slowing down of economic development (economical) - Enforce economic activity

8. Migration from rural to urban areas -poor infrastructure -decrease economic activity -Infrastructure and technology enforcement Monopoly (PPP) (high) -weak government structure (political) -Strengthen governance -Strengthen regional and international corporation Risk of extreme events (high) -droughts and floods (environmental) -Infrastructure and technology enforcement

9. Restriction of development by high env. standards

10. Nature protection first – development later Impossible possibility

11. 10 Impact on environment GDP Turningg point A B

12. Privatisation of natural resources, including water

13. Viktor Simončč, Sisak 12

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16. SOCIETY CAPACITIES UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Let us contribute a little bit to sustainable approach! 15 Viktor Simončič, Sisak

17. S4 scenario is: NEWSPAPER HEADLINES –if business as usual on WB!? Endless horror! A horrible end or horror without end?

18. 17 TEHNIČKI / TECHNICAL EKONOMSKI / ECONOMY TRŽIŠNI / MARKET DRUŠTVENI / SOCIETAL POTENCIJALI POTENTIALS BARIJERE BARRIERS