1. On Decision Making and Problem Solving By Hong-chang Chang Kai Nan University December 10, 2002

2. A. Introduction “ Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current patterns of thought. ” - Albert Einstein “ A person ’ s ability to manage his or his society ’ s affairs depends more on his understanding of, and attitude toward the world that contain him than on his problem-solving methods. Put another way, his success depends more on his view of the world and philosophy he lives by than it does on his science and technology. “ Successful problem solving requires finding the right problem. We fail more often because we solve the wrong problem than because we get the wrong solution to the right problem. The problems we select for solution and the way we formulate them depends more on our philosophy and world view than our science and

3. technology. How we go about solving them obviously depends on our science and technology, but our ability to use them effectively also depends on our philosophy and world view. These, in turn, depends on the concepts and ideas we use and how we use them to organize our perceptions of the world. ” - Russell L. Ackoff ‧ 資本主義 vs. 共產主義：解決同一個問題﹒ ‧ 希特勒 ‧ Alinsky (1960 年代美國社會工作運動者 ) ，帶四名大漢，不穿西 裝不打領帶，在 LA 街頭，見人都說：「這十塊錢拿去用吧﹗」。 「對不起我沒零錢」、「我不是那種女人」、「我沒那麼便宜」、 「警察﹗」 ﹒﹒﹒

4. B. Self-imposed Constraint ‧ Nine-dots-formed-a-square problem ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ ‧ Education

5. C. Components of A Problem 1. Objectives: desired outcomes 2. Controlled variables: courses of action 3. Uncontrolled variables: the environment 4. The relationships among these three

6. D. Objectives 1. Our own objectives 2. Those of the others involved 3. How their and our objectives are related 4. Examples (1) Grading system at a large American university. (2) Birth control in India in ‘ 50 ’ s (3) Illiteracy problem in a Black ghetto

7. E. Controllable variables 1. Criteria are often derived from our education and previous experience with similar situations. 2. Examples (1) A fishy story (2) An ups-and-downs story (3) Automatic dishwasher

8. F. Uncontrollable variables 1. Variables uncontrolled by one person may be controlled by another. 2. Variables that a decision maker considers to be out of his control may actually be within it. Self- imposed constraints may convert a controllable variable into one that appears to be uncontrollable. 3. Examples (1) The upside-down story of refrigerators (combining deficiencies may solve problems of physical design). (2) Milk delivery problem (combining several “ bad ” things to get one good one).

9. G. Relations: Causality or association 1. Assume a causal connection where it does not exit. 2. Characterize a causal connection incorrectly where it does exit. 3. Variables may tend to change together in the same or opposite directions. 4. Examples: (1) Soot fall and tuberculosis (2) Per capita sugar consumption in England (3) Gasoline service station problem