1. Digital Economy P1 - Hardware P. Bakowski bako@ieee.org

2. P. Bakowski 2 The driving factors Electronic technologies,.. Electronic technologies,.. Optical technologies,.. Optical technologies,.. Electro-magnetic technologies,.. Electro-magnetic technologies,..

3. P. Bakowski 3 The driving factors 1947: First electronic programmable computer (ENIAC) 17,468 vacuum tubes, 7,200 crystal diodes, 17,468 vacuum tubes, 7,200 crystal diodes, 1,500 relays, 70,000 resistors, 10,000 capacitors 1,500 relays, 70,000 resistors, 10,000 capacitors 27 tons 27 tons 8.5 feet (2.6 m) by 3 feet (0.9 m) by 80 feet (26 m) 8.5 feet (2.6 m) by 3 feet (0.9 m) by 80 feet (26 m) 680 square feet (67.6 m²) 680 square feet (67.6 m²) 150 kW of power 150 kW of power IBM card reader and card punch IBM card reader and card punch

4. P. Bakowski 4 The driving factors 1947: First electronic programmable computer (ENIAC) MTBF – 6 min MTBF – 6 min Mean Time Between Failures - is the predicted elapsed time between inherent failures of a system during operation. MTBF can be calculated as the arithmetic mean (average) time between failures of a system

5. P. Bakowski 5 The driving factors 1947: First electronic programmable computer (ENIAC) now 2mm*2mm 1 W, MTBF - years

6. P. Bakowski 6 The driving factors 1948: Invention of transistor by William Shockley awarded the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physics

7. P. Bakowski 7 The driving factors 1948: Invention of transistor an amplifier (analogue) an amplifier (analogue)

8. P. Bakowski 8 The driving factors 1948: Invention of transistor an amplifier (analogue) an amplifier (analogue) an electrically controlled switch (digital) an electrically controlled switch (digital)

9. P. Bakowski 9 The driving factors 1958 (pat 1961):Invention of integrated circuit Jack Kilby 1958 (pat 1961): : Invention of integrated circuit Jack Kilby Nobel Prize - 2000

10. P. Bakowski 10 The driving factors 1968:Microprocessor 1968: Idea of Microprocessor The idea of Ted Hoff who was employee number 12 at Intel 1971: Realization Intel 4004

11. P. Bakowski 11 The driving factors The original 4004 was a silicon- based chip measuring 1/8th of an inch long by 1/16th of an inch wide, containing either 2,108 transistors 1 inch = 25.4 mm What was it’s surface in mm 2 0.7 MHz clock

12. P. Bakowski 12 The driving factors 1969 (SRAM): static random access memory (SRAM) static random access memory (SRAM) 6 transistors/bit 6 transistors/bit 64 bit : 8 bytes decoder

13. P. Bakowski 13 The driving factors 1970 (DRAM): dynamic random access memory (DRAM) dynamic random access memory (DRAM) capacitors to store the bits (1 transistor/bit) capacitors to store the bits (1 transistor/bit) 1024 bit : 128 bytes decoder

14. P. Bakowski 14 The driving factors 1984 EEPROM :Flash Memories 1984 EEPROM : Flash Memories floating-gate transistor - "cell" electrically programmable/erasable

15. P. Bakowski 15 The driving factors Toshiba 1989: NAND flash are accessed like block devices such as hard disks or memory cards. Toshiba 1989: NAND flash are accessed like block devices such as hard disks or memory cards. Each block consists of a number of words and pages. The pages are typically or 2,048 or 4,096 bytes in size. Each block consists of a number of words and pages. The pages are typically or 2,048 or 4,096 bytes in size.

16. P. Bakowski 16 The driving factors 1987:FPGA, … 1987: FPGA, … configuration New way of prototyping and implementation

17. P. Bakowski 17 The driving factors 1952-1970:Fibre,.. 1952-1970: Optical Fibre,.. high data rates (Terabit/s) high data rates (Terabit/s) long distance (10-200 Km) long distance (10-200 Km)

18. P. Bakowski 18 The driving factors 1950-1970: laser Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation low-divergence beam well-defined wavelength (i.e., monochromatic) well-defined wavelength (i.e., monochromatic) First ruby laser

19. P. Bakowski 19 The driving factors 1970-1990:Laser diodes (semiconductor),.. 1970-1990: Laser diodes (semiconductor),.. injection laser diodes injection laser diodes pumped laser diodes pumped laser diodes

20. P. Bakowski 20 The driving factors 1987:Optical amplifiers,.. 1987: Optical amplifiers,.. a laser without an optical cavity (erbium doped) a laser without an optical cavity (erbium doped) stimulated emission - amplification of incoming light stimulated emission - amplification of incoming light

21. P. Bakowski 21 The driving factors 1970:Hard Disks,.. 1970: Hard Disks,.. non-volatile storage device non-volatile storage device fixed mediamagnetic surfaces fixed media magnetic surfaces

22. P. Bakowski 22 The Moore’s Law 1965Moore's Law 1965 : Moore's Law Number of transistors is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years Moore's Law derivatives (apply to many parameters): processing speed processing speed memory capacity memory capacity computing power/cost computing power/cost resolution of digital cameras resolution of digital cameras....

23. P. Bakowski 23 The Moore’s Law The observation was first made by Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper.

24. P. Bakowski 24 The Moore’s Law

25. P. Bakowski 25 Processing power Computing power per unit cost. "bang per buck" - doubles every 24 months GFLOP/s GPU CPU

26. P. Bakowski 26 Storage capacity Hard disk storage cost per unit of information (B) follows Kryder's Law disk capacity in GB 19802010 1000 0.001

27. P. Bakowski 27 Transmission capacity 25 Tb/s

28. P. Bakowski 28 Transmission capacity The dashed line is an exponential fit with a doubling time of 20 months and the solid line represents the nominal bandwidth limit of 25 Tb/s. This limit is based on a low cost window from 1450 to 1650 nm and a spectral efficiency of 1 b/s/Hz. Note that the doubling time is shorter than the doubling time for the transistor count (24 months)

29. P. Bakowski 29 Processing costs (50 years) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1000000$ – 1 MIPS 1 $ – 100 MIPS ratio : 1000000000 = 100*10 6

30. P. Bakowski 30 Magnetic storage costs (50 years) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1000$ – 1 MB 1 $ – 10 GB ratio : 10000000 = 10*10 6

31. P. Bakowski 31 Optical storage costs (30 years) 1980 1990 2000 2010 1$ – 1 MB 1 $ – 100 GB ratio : 100000 = 100*10 3

32. P. Bakowski 32 Telecommunication costs 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 10 $ - 60s*64Kb/s (480 KB) 1 $ – 4000 *60*64Kb/s (19.2 GB) ratio : 40000 (for a transatlantic line)

33. P. Bakowski 33 Pure silicon foundries integrated circuit : pure foundries TaiwanSingaporeChina South Korea Germany

34. P. Bakowski 34 Optical disk production

35. P. Bakowski 35 Fabless companies

36. P. Bakowski 36 ARM business model (2006) ARM's 2006 annual report: ARM's 2006 annual report: royalties $164.1 million royalties $164.1 million shipping 2.45 billion units shipping 2.45 billion units ARM's licensing revenues 119.5 million, ARM's licensing revenues 119.5 million, 65 processor licenses 65 processor licenses What is royalty per ARM chip ?

37. P. Bakowski 37 MIPS business model and China China's Institute of Computing Technology (ICT) July 2009 MIPS32 and MIPS64 architecture licensees China's Institute of Computing Technology (ICT) buys in July 2009 MIPS32 and MIPS64 architecture licensees China has independently designed Godson and Loongson MIPS-compatible processors China has independently designed Godson and Loongson MIPS-compatible processors Godson-3 has x86 compatibility mode ! Godson-3 has x86 compatibility mode ! 4 and 8 core versions by 2010 China plans to build a peta-flop computer based on Godson-3 by 2010 China plans to build a peta-flop computer based on Godson-3

38. P. Bakowski 38 Global IC sales

39. P. Bakowski 39 INTEL R&D India Intel's Xeon 7400 design took place in India (2008). Intel's Xeon 7400 design took place in India (2008). front-end design, front-end design, pre-silicon logic validation, pre-silicon logic validation, back-end design back-end design This is the first complete 45nm design outside the USA In 1995 Andrew Grove said « We do not need American engineers any more » Bangalore

40. P. Bakowski 40 INTEL R&D India Intel's India contributed to designs for the Intel's India contributed to designs for the Napa, Santa Rosa and Montevina mobile platforms, Napa, Santa Rosa and Montevina mobile platforms, quad-core Intel Xeon 5300, quad-core Intel Xeon 5300, design and validation of Core2 Extreme quad-core design and validation of Core2 Extreme quad-core Intel India employs about 2500 engineers (2008)

41. P. Bakowski 41 INTEL R&D China

42. P. Bakowski 42 INTEL R&D Poland

43. P. Bakowski 43 Summary Driving technologies and inventions The Moore' Law Processing, storage and communication costs Production and economy