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Office of Force Transformation Transforming Defense The Path Not Taken …yet The Role of Defense in National Security The Management of Defense The Force.

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Presentation on theme: "Office of Force Transformation Transforming Defense The Path Not Taken …yet The Role of Defense in National Security The Management of Defense The Force."— Presentation transcript:

1 Office of Force Transformation Transforming Defense The Path Not Taken …yet The Role of Defense in National Security The Management of Defense The Force Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 23 July 2003 Vision: Broad and Sustained Competitive Advantage

2 Office of Force Transformation Connecting the Present to Our Future Expanding Competition Power and Principle Strategic PostureShrinking the Dysfunctional, Disconnected Gap of Globalization Operational Maneuver Creating a one-two punch Mapping Future Challenges Risk Issues: How to make near-term actions robust across alternative futures? How to create on-ramps for capabilities?

3 Office of Force Transformation Trends in Security Competition Short Cycle Time New Competencies Adaptive Planning Integrated Joint Interdependent Information Age Developed Rules Mature Markets Narrowing Customer Base Security=Defense Globalization II Emerging Rules Market Opportunities New Customer Base Emerging Security=All Else+Defense Globalization III Long Cycle Time Well Developed Tools/Processes Deliberate Planning Deconflicted Joint Tortured Interoperability Industrial Age

4 Office of Force Transformation Expanding Competition Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests} U.S. power is unmatched Therefore, U.S. policy will be attacked through its moral principles (legitimacy, international law, etc.) If the frontiers of National Security can be everywhere and are not territorial borders but fault lines within societies, then … The nexus of foreign and domestic security policy is intelligence We must be able to look and operate deeply within societies Assured Access includes the domains of political victory Speed of modern warfare creates a continuum, not a succession of phases Decisively Defeat Duration Assure, Dissuade, Deter Intensity

5 Office of Force Transformation Security System Balance? … Major Movements Strategic Maneuver/Balance Forces forward Strategic deploy from home Allies Operational Maneuver From forward garrison From the sea From strategic distances Deter Forward 2d derivative force Sustaining force Constabulary/Nation-building force

6 Office of Force Transformation Strategic Posture … Exporting security The Red Zone …… Our Response

7 Office of Force Transformation Industrial Age Information Age Globalization IIIGlobalization II Iraq 1 Iraq 2 Global Trends … Military Response The Emerging American Military: More expeditionary (including lighter, more lethal) More networked (more interoperability at the JTF level) Designed to leverage the exterior positions (precision from distance as sensors move in) Leverages increasingly persistent ISR Tighter sensor-shooter timelines (sensing, C2, fly-out) Values Information Superiority (information operations) Expanded unmanned capabilities (UAV, UCAV, UUV, robotics)

8 Office of Force Transformation Industrial Age Information Age Globalization IIIGlobalization II Global Trends…Threats …Strategic Response Strategic Capabilities: More Preventative - Less Punitive Achieve unambiguous warning earlier More SOF-Like characteristics A Deter Forward Force An Intel/Surveillance-based force Coping with system perturbations -----[Great Power War?]----- Political Ideology Hated Dictator Hated Dictator w/Nukes Nuclear Nationalists Narco- terrorists Regional Terrorists International Terrorists SEI w/Bugs System State Individual

9 Office of Force Transformation Top Level Issues …Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests} Event FocusedContinuous PunitivePreventative Access to BattlespaceAccess to Political Victory Citizen Soldier Volunteer (Recruited) ForceProfessional Warrior + Enforcer + Systems Administrator Projecting PowerExporting Security

10 Office of Force Transformation Candidates for Action Now …Identify issues of regret Warfare Elements Fire - Non-lethals, Directed Energy, Redirected Energy Maneuver - Sea basing, vertical battlefield, lift for operational maneuver Protection - Urban Operations, Bug-to-Drug Cycle Time C2&C – Joint Interdependency vs. Interoperability ISR - Demand-centered Intel, Tactically Responsive Space Logistics - Joint demand-centered logistics Risk Management Areas (creating on-ramps) Joint S&T Joint Experimentation Modern Warfare Modeling Tools People: cost or resource Precision Deterrence Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests}

11 Office of Force Transformation Transforming Defense Surrogate Wars System Perturbations and Consequences GlobalHomeland InterestsSecurity MAD Containment => GlobalHomeland InterestsSecurity Precision Deterrence? =>

12 Office of Force Transformation Evolution of Precision Strike: … Effectiveness against fixed targets Then & Now: One-sixtieth the tonnage required to drop a bridge span 1940s B Tons 1960s F-4D 200 Tons 1970s F-4D LGB 12.5 Tons 1990s F-117 LGB 4 Tons 2000s All weather B-1 JDAM 4 Tons Tons Required Tons of bombs required to drop a bridge span (90% confidence)

13 Office of Force Transformation Unguided Unitary Bombs 1940s Sorties required 1960s Unguided Cluster Weapons 1970s Maverick 1990s SFW 2000s WCMD/SFW/P 3 I Evolution of Precision Strike: … Effectiveness against mobile targets Then & Now: Sorties required to neutralize 10 mobile armored battalions * * Damage 15 out of 30 armored vehicles per battalion

14 Office of Force Transformation 176 Bombs 88 F-4 Sorties 400' CEP 1970s Evolution of Precision Strike: … Quantity of bombs assigned for 90% Probability of Kill Then & Now: Over Three Orders of Magnitude reduction in weapons required to destroy a fixed target Advanced weapons systems armed with precision munitions are extremely accurate but are highly dependent on quality information 9,000 Bombs 1,500 B-17 Sorties 3,300' CEP 1940s 2 Bombs 1 F-16 Sortie 10' CEP 1990s 1 Bomb 1 B-2 Sortie < 10' CEP 2000s

15 Office of Force Transformation Paradigm Changes … To Enable Precision Deterrence Large Area Affected Makes up for Lack of Precise Weapon and Target Location Non-Linear Political Consequences Self Deterring Precise Weapon and Target Location Allows Focused Effects Militarily Relevant Operationally Useful Weapons of Mass Destruction (Nukes) Weapons of Precision Deterrence Precision Deterrence = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests} Ours &Ours &Ours & TheirsTheirsTheirs

16 Office of Force Transformation Deterrence is … Context Dependent –Highly reliant on intelligence –A state of mind brought about by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction relevant to those we wish to deter An Effects Based Operation –Precision Deterrence: creating a precise local effect in the cognitive domain –Ways can be military, financial, economic or diplomatic –The Duality of Means … Precision Deterrence must have a local effect – it can have a global impact Viewed asViewed as DisproportionateProportionate by the Targetby the World Precision Effect

17 Office of Force Transformation Military Options … for Precision Deterrence Directed Energy Weapons –Lasers Covert engagement at a safe distance All aspect engagement and re-targeting capability Ultra precise targeting and aimpoint Adjustable delivered energy –High Powered Microwaves Deter belligerents Ultra precise targeting and aimpoint Deny an area to personnel Control crowds Non-Lethal Weapons –Counter-Personnel –Counter-Material –Counter-Capability Need for decision space and time –Ability to act while discriminating intent –Increase engagement time and range Need to satisfy policy and operational constraints –Target –Non-combatants –Own force Operational Commonality ?

18 Office of Force Transformation Precision Deterrence … Issues and Choices How do we balance local (tactical) deterrence and global (strategic) deterrence? What kind of JWAC-like process is required to create cognitive effects? Can our intelligence community identify that which our adversaries hold most dear? What are the new tools of deterrence that support our moral principles and strategic interests and how do they interact? What are the new concepts for deterrence?


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