1. WHAT IS EXPECTED OF A POVERTY MONITORING PLAN (PMP) ? Chris Scott PARIS21 Consultant/LSE July 2002

2. TWO GUIDING PRINCIPLES Should be drafted after a widespread process of consultation to ensure ownership of the plan by all stakeholders Should demonstrate a commitment to making all monitoring processes both transparent & accountable.

3. OBJECTIVES OF A PMP Summarise the information needs for poverty monitoring in the short (  1 year) & medium term (  3 years) Identify the information sources to meet these needs, & indicate how these sources can be accessed & by whom Describe how the multiple & disparate flows of poverty information will be managed, ‘processed’ & disseminated to users. Indicate how these flows are embodied in an institutional framework at national, regional & local level so as to ensure transparency & accountability of monitoring Specify the outputs of the poverty monitoring system (PMS)

4. Design & cost a training programme to build capacity in the analysis & use of poverty information. [Training in the collection of data more properly part of the National Statistical Plan (NSP)] Prepare a 3 year budget for poverty monitoring activities Ensure consistency of this PM programme with the NSP Specify when & how the PMP may be revised & amended in the light of experience

5. SUMMARISE INFORMATION NEEDS The precise demands for poverty information are set out in the list of indicators shown in Annex 4 of the MPRS This list resulted from a widespread consultative process Possible amendments to list of indicators after Blantyre workshop ?

6. IDENTIFY INFORMATION SOURCES A key feature of a PMS is that the value of any one piece of information or data source depends on the quantity and quality of all the other pieces of information and data sources in the system. Examples: –Population Census & HBS for poverty mapping –Population Census & line Ministry records for enrolment rates, vaccination coverage,etc. –Household surveys to check school attendance against official enrolment rates

7. Types of relevant information: Management information systems (MIS): public expenditure tracking by Ministry of Finance (IFMIS which supports FIMTAB) public expenditure tracking by CSOs MIS of line Ministries (Education, Health, Agriculture) Surveys and Censuses: Household Budget Surveys, DHS, Labour Force Surveys, Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire (CWIQ). Surveys generally every 3-5 years, but CWIQ can be done annually. HBS/LSMS tends to be the only source for consumption expenditure among low income groups. Surveys provide other data, eg. school attendance, which may be compared with MIS on school enrolment.

8. Population Censuses every 10 years. Provides update on the denominator of key indicators, eg. net primary school enrolment. In combination with HBS, allows for disaggregated spatial poverty mapping, as in South Africa. Participatory monitoring exercises Can include regional/zonal workshops, focus group discussions, rapid rural appraisals. Results may not always be consistent with quantitative data gathered through surveys, eg. Uganda. Useful to draw up a Poverty Monitoring Matrix which identifies the data source for each indicator, the frequency of measurement and the organization responsible for collecting the information.

9. Given the wide variety of information required by a PMS, it is important to plan ahead so that information is collected in a sequence which does not overburden the NSO or any other information collection agency, and maximises the complementarities between different types of data. Such a plan is sometimes called a ‘sequenced information strategy’. A template for such a strategy is shown on the next slide.

10. Implement. agency12341234123412341234 Household budget surveyNSO Service delivery of CWIQNSO Monthly price collectionNSO PPANGO/Govt. Panel StudyUniversity Population CensusNSO MIS (inc.expend.tracking)Ministries PMU= Poverty Monitoring Unit Year 5Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 A five year work program for poverty monitoring

11. MANAGING & PROCESSING INFORMATION FLOWS In order to convert raw information into knowledge about changes in poverty over time, which is useful for policy makers, it is necessary to –Assemble/collate data from multiple sources –Check methodological consistency for single indicator from one source over time, & between different data sources for a single indicator at one point in time –‘light analysis’, ie. what conclusions can be drawn from changes in the values of the indicators over a given period ? –Prepare & draft reports (for various groups of users) –Commission ‘heavy analysis’, eg. poverty mapping, econometric analysis of determinants of poverty –Maintain dialogue with data producers to improve relevance of information collected, eg. Labour Force Survey

12. Some questions posed by the management of poverty information: –How are the M&E systems in the Ministries to be linked to the PMS ? –Could these systems be made more poverty- focussed ? –How is poverty monitoring to be conducted at district level, & how will this link to PM at national level ?

13. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR POVERTY MONITORING No standard blue-print which must be followed. Countries vary in the frameworks they adopt, & for good reason. What is important is that the PMP should make clear which of the various functions listed in the previous slide will be carried out by whom, when, where & how.

14. OUTPUTS OF THE POVERTY MONITORING SYSTEM Several types of outputs: –For Cabinet Committee on the Economy Short frequent progress reports (quarterly, half yearly ?) Longer less frequent reports, eg. annual poverty reduction progress report required for PRSP process by WB/IMF Specially commissioned studies –For general public Annual poverty status report produced as an input into budget cycle, Public Expenditure Review, MTEF consultations & report for WB/IMF 3 yearly review of MPRS Development of poverty data base Disaggregated spatial poverty map Ad hoc studies Workshops, media events

15. IDENTIFY CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS Build management skills to coordinate overall poverty monitoring system Improve data quality & data management in MIS of Ministries [Increase knowledge of household survey design and implementation covered by NSP] Training in poverty measurement and diagnostics Learn facilitation skills for PPAs & participatory monitoring Training in poverty impact evaluation

16. SUPPORT FOR CAPACITY BUILDING From the World Bank: –Poverty Analysis Initiative of World Bank Institute is a program which provides training in poverty measurement & diagnostics, poverty monitoring & poverty impact evaluation through regional & country workshops and other activities. Has website & link to entry level course in poverty analysis (syllabus, readings, exercises). Recently created the Poverty Analysis Community which brings together (virtually) practitioners in this field from across the world –Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building finances proposals to strengthen information systems in developing countries. The TFSCB is closely linked to..

17. The Partnership in Statistics for the 21 st Century (PARIS21) Micro impact of macroeconomic policies (MIMAP): policy oriented global research & training network financed by IDRC (Canada) which has three programmes (macro-micro modelling, poverty analysis & community- based monitoring). Historically has been active in francophone West Africa, now widening coverage to anglophone Africa (representative in Nairobi)

18. ESTIMATING THE COSTS OF POVERTY MONITORING Important question,but difficult to answer because poverty monitoring system (PMS) uses data which are also used for other purposes, eg. MIS, Population Census, IHS. Inappropriate to assign the entire cost of a Census or a IHS to the PMS. Refer to relevant section of Tanzania’s Poverty Monitoring Master Plan Need also to ask what are the benefits of a PMS ? These are the costs of NOT monitoring poverty.

19. HOW IS THE PMP TO BE ELABORATED ? Need to define the process which culminates in the drafting of the PMP Role for a smaller number of the Thematic Working Groups involved in preparation of the MPRS ? Build on experience with participatory/ consultative exercises used for MPRS