Presentation on theme: "Macroeconomics in Islamic Economy: A Theoretical Perspective"— Presentation transcript:
1 Macroeconomics in Islamic Economy: A Theoretical Perspective 12th Distance Learning Program by IRTI, Fall 2010Macroeconomics in Islamic Economy: A Theoretical PerspectiveProf. Dr. Sayyid TahirIIIE, International Islamic Univ.IslamabadLecture Date: 30 November 2010
2 Learning Outcomes*Understanding macroeconomic dimensions of an Islamic economyNational Accounts of an Islamic economy covering all its macroeconomic dimensionsGoals of Analysis: [Among the others:] Employment, Inflation, Poverty Alleviation Growth & Stability and Growth &EquityMonetary Policy;Fiscal Policy; Zakah and Fiscal Policy;Labor Policy;Exchange Rate Policy;Macroeconomic objectives of Shari'ah within the overall perspective of objectives of Shari'ah.*Set by the Sponsor of this lecture.
3 Outline Distinguishing characteristics of an Islamic economy Blueprint of an Islamic economyNature and role of government (remembering that all macroeconomic policies are conceived and implemented at the government level)Rationale for macroeconomic analysis of an Islamic economyPrincipal macroeconomic aggregates (target variables)Macroeconomic dataMacroeconomic dimensions of an Islamic economyMacroeconomic policy framework and goalsMacroeconomic policy goals in an Islamic economyMonetary PolicyFiscal Policy, while taking into account the institution of zakahLabor policyExchange rate policyMaqasid-e-Shari’ah and macroeconomic policy
4 Distinguishing Characteristics of An Islamic Economy Terms of Reference: The Qur’an and the SunnahSupremacy of the Shari’ahEquality of Man῾Adl (justice)Emphasis on economic efficiency as well as distributional equityIIIE, IIUI
5 Blueprint of An Islamic Economy Focus: “An” Islamic economyIndividualism ─ with socially responsible and Shari’ah-bound individualsMarket-based economy with a unique transactions matrix and associated institutional set-upFinancial transactions/Intermediation in Shari’ah-based ways whereby financial institutions act as economic agents, and financial and real sectors of the economy are closely integrated.Nature and role of governmentIIIE, IIUI
6 Government – Its Nature & Role in the light of the Shari’ah Principles Whatever one might say, in the end those in the seat of Government are individuals. Of course, there occupation in different: to do things associated with the persona of “government”.There is “Shari’ah” for the rulers in the same way as for an individual or the common man. Of course, due to unique occupation, the Ahkam would be somewhat different.Government has dual character:Wali al-Amr (Representative of the Shair’ah in matters of the individuals’ rights and obligations vis-à-vis the Shari’ah), andRepresentative of the people in their collective matters.All prohibitions of the Shari’ah (e.g., no riba) automatically apply to the government.Government has to protect the interests of the individuals, both this worldly and those in the hereafter.Government cannot favor one over another without the latter’s free willing consent.IIIE, IIUI
7 Government (contd.)Government may play the role of facilitator or adjudicator in economic activity.The government to stay away from direct participation in economic activity.─ There is question mark on public sector economic enterprises.The government may be responsible for provision of pure public goods.For all non-pure public goods, the government may come into the picture, albeit temporarily, to fill in the gap.Role of government may be limited to human resource development, of course, on behalf of the citizenry.Government should leave all welfare-oriented activity to the private sector, i.e. in the individuals’ hands.No interest-based borrowing or lending by the government.
8 Rationale for Macroeconomics of an Islamic Economy Basis: Different macroeconomic framework in which economic agents make their choicesConcern: Performance of an Islamic economy on both economic and the Shari’ah groundsMacroeconomic policy in an Islamic economyMacroeconomic policy for non-Islamic economiesComparison of macroeconomic performance of an Islamic economy with other economies with similar resource endowments but non-Islamic architectureIIIE, IIUI
9 Principal Macroeconomic Aggregates (Target Variables) Aggregate output and incomePrice levelEmployment level ─ Entrepreneurship/Self-employment might be subsumed here.Variables related to Islamic Financing modesIncome inequality and povertyInflation (Secondary concern for an Islamic economy)Exchange Rate“Growth with Stability” and “Growth with Equity” are built-in characteristics of the Islamic macroeconomic set- up. No separate focus might be necessary.IIIE, IIUI
10 Macroeconomic Data: National Income & Expenditure Accounts Measure of economic activity: GNP or GDPMeasurement through expenditure (value at market prices) or income (factor cost) methodOther Aggregates: NNP, Personal Income, Personal Disposable IncomeMeasures of Inequality (in distribution of personal income and personal disposable Income), Poverty and DisparityZakah ─ Both collection and disbursementIndebtedness at micro and macro levelsIIIE, IIUI
11 Other Macro Data Employment Entrepreneurship Indebtedness at micro and macro levelsRealized rate of profit overall as well as in various economic sectorsThe margin in murabahah financing, the rental in ijarah financingRelation between profits and profit-sharing ratio overall as well as in different sectorsIIIE, IIUI
12 Macroeconomic Dimensions of an Islamic Economy – 1 Goods Market─ The economy may be perceived as s mega goods market with producers on the supply side and the public (consumers), investors (another acronym for ‘producers’) and government on the demand side.Financial Side:(1) Source of Outside Money: Government/Central Bank(2) Financial Assets: Money, Mudarabah Deposits, Islamic Securities, Islamic StocksFinancing Modes: Murabahah, Salam, Ijarah and MusharakahLabor MarketInstitution of Zakah (the medium for welfare agenda)
13 Macroeconomic Dimensions – 2 The Institution of Zakah:Government as the sole body for assessment, collection and disbursement of zakahOne the collection side: Extensive setup needs to be in place in order to cover the economy across:population (rural, urban, mining and nomads),economic zones (agricultural, minerals, industrial and commercial), with due margin for the type of economic activity at the micro level in each zoneInstitutionalized economic activity (personally and publically owned businesses)Financial institutionsOn the disbursement side: Zoning of the economy according to poverty and other concerns where zakah can be utilized, according to a well-developed criteria.
14 Macroeconomic Policy Framework and Goals Framework for macroeconomic policyIslamic Economy── Analysis for non-Islamic economy also to be carried out against this backdropZakah (for distributional concerns)── Institutional framework for assessment, collection, preservation and disbursement of zakah──Economic topographyMonetary frameworkIIIE, IIUI
15 Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Islamic Economy Fulfillment of fundamental economic rights ─ minimums of food, clothing & shelter and inheritance rights ─ of the peoplePreservation of the Islamic character of an Islamic economy or Islamisation of the economy in other casesKeeping the economy afloat and facilitating its growth through non-fiscal measures except in extreme casesA credible deterrent is deemed to be a part of Islamic economy. Necessary action may sometimes be called for at the policy level.IIIE, IIUI
16 Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Islamic Economy – Further Considerations The goal of reduction in economic disparity and inequality to be addressed largely through the institution of zakah and regulatory measures at the government level. Activist fiscal policy may be pursued to reduce inter-regional economic disparities in the interest of unity of the state.Direct market intervention to promote unemployment, control inflation, etc., not on policy agenda. Activist fiscal policy that involves current or future taxation to promote not possible.Monetary policy action to influence murabahah-financing margins, etc., may work through manipulation of high- powered/outside money.IIIE, IIUI
17 Monetary PolicyMonetary policy to work in tandem with the fiscal policy with the Shari’ah considerations providing justification for fiscal action by the government. Technically speaking, central bank would be just an organ of the state like the government (finance ministry): no independent central bank.Difference to be maintained between (1) the process of generating claims, i.e. transactions at the micro level, and (2) facilitation of the said process in a highly efficient mannerFocus of monetary policy to be on quantity of outside money with efficient Islamic bank, inter-bank market and other financial markets streamlining the flow of money to accommodate the transaction needs in the economyThe last point also implies targeting of the velocity of outside money.IIIE, IIUI
18 Fiscal PolicyWelfare side to be left to state-managed zakah institution and private initiative The Islamic approach to poverty is basically grassroots approach with both the initiative and necessary action taken at the micro level.Scope for fiscal action (through budgetary measures) likely to be limited to:Fulfillment of fundamental economic rights (in case of systemic failures)Development of economic infrastructure at the micro level (safe-drinking water, streets, etc), local (roads and other means for transportation) and national levels (highways, bridges, dams, etc.)Maintenance of a credible deterrentA small space for public works programsFine tuning of the economy through review of existing action.
19 Labor PolicySignificance: Wage-based/salaried employment is the largest source of income in virtually all modern economies.With the integration of real and financial sectors, availability of opportunity for employment would be better.With the Shari’ah-constraints in place, government is not expected to directly participate in economic activity. This may limit the scope for direct employment generation at the government level.Focus on human resource development holds the key to solve labor market problems. Education and training may increase mobility of labor and, thereby, lessen structural employment problemsDue to the Shari’ah restrictions for wage contracts and the long-term nature of employer-employee relations, the regulatory role for government will become important.IIIE, IIUI
20 Exchange Rate PolicyNo foreign exchange controls exporters to be free to hold their export earning, importers to be on their own to meet their foreign exchange needs, investors operating freely in the foreign exchange market and government meeting its foreign exchange needs through taxation taxation of exports and imports in foreign currency, acquiring foreign exchange with local currency resources at the expense of the governmentGovernment needs to keep a distance from the fiscal action that may distort the working of foreign exchange markets.In principle, no direct intervention in the foreign exchange market at the government/central bank levelIIIE, IIUI
21 Maqasid-e-Shari’ah and Macroconomics of an Islamic Economy Maqasid-e-Shari’ah are originally conceived in terms of protection of five things:Religion (Deen), Life (Nafs), Progeny (Nasl)Intellect (‘Aql) and Property (Maal)Promotion of the above Maqasid is the ultimate goal of macroeconomic policy.The goals of various policies, spelled out earlier, work toward the fulfillment of the Maqasid.Focus on human source development, along with the enforcement of the Shari’ah, holds the key to the achievement of the Maqasid at the macro level.IIIE, IIUI