Presentation on theme: "Social Support for Welfare Reforms by Nicola Rossi The Future of the European Social Models Venice, 3-4 March 2006."— Presentation transcript:
Social Support for Welfare Reforms by Nicola Rossi The Future of the European Social Models Venice, 3-4 March 2006
Background It has been repeatedly suggested that a lack of support for the social reforms program was among the factors behind the electoral defeat of the Italian centre-left in the 2001 general elections. And that the Italian centre-left coalition should keep this firmly in mind when designing its future (hopefully, in Government) after the 2006 general election.
(Soft) facts / 1 Recent polls, tough, suggest that quite a sizeable majority of Italians stand for a new term of social and market reforms. A vast majority of Italian, whatever the sector they belong to, believe that Italian problems are “made in Italy” (between 85 and 95%) and so should solutions (between 70 and 90%). Data source: Ipsos-Cise. Courtesy of Il Sole – 24 Ore
(Soft) facts / 2 Moreover, a significant fractions of the Italians are in favour of those reforms which more directly may influence their own sector and status (flexibility for private sector workers, mobility for public sector workers, liberalization for professional services). Data source: Ipsos-Cise. Courtesy of Il Sole – 24 Ore
(Hard) perspectives / 1 However, unpublished results from the same polls (courtesy Ipsos-Cise) suggest that this apparently non true for the younger generations: that is for those generations politically educated in the last decade and mostly centre-left oriented. That is for those generations which, in the years to come, will in all likelihood increasingly constitute the backbone of the centre-left electorate.
(Hard) perspectives / 2 Younger generations are quite less keen to believe that Italian problems are “made in Italy” (and not due, as in the graph, to China’s aggressive competition) than the average and, not surprisingly, more often than the average look for “external” solutions to the Italian problems (such as, as in the graph, leaving the Euro area) … Data source: Ipsos- Cise. Courtesy of Il Sole – 24 Ore
(Hard) perspectives / 3 … and, needless to say younger dependent workers tend to consider flexibility much more critically than their even slightly older colleagues. In some sense, younger generation have not been “introduced” to reforms as they should have been. An “introduction” which is only possible if reforms are the end result of a cultural battle. And here is the really hard perspective: by not endorsing fully in the past decade the cause for social and market reforms, by only timidly marking the relevant cultural battleground, the Italian centre-left has made its own future more complex and demanding than it would have been otherwise.