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Tomorrow’s food shopper Verdict Consulting
Agenda What we’ll talk about 123 what we’ve got how we shop what it means
But first A short story…
1 what we’ve got
What we’ve got A squeeze incomingsoutgoings prices
What we’ve got The impact Before recession (2007) During recession (2009) After recession (2011) Disposable £29,982 Disposable £29,625 Disposable £29,005 Discretionary £9,301 Discretionary £12,903 Discretionary £8,788
lack money I can’t spend lack will I won’t spend lack spontaneity I think, then spend What we’ve got Changing mindsets
1.6% 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% % 2015 What we’ve got Total retail spending growth Total retail consumer spending growth
1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 1.9%2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% Inflation growth Volume growth 0.4% 2.6% 2.8% What we’ve got Volume and inflation Total retail consumer spending growth
2.4% +3.9% +4.0% ClothingTotalBeauty +3.4% Food +0.7% Furniture +0.6 ElectricalsHomewares +0.4 DIY What we’ve got Sector growth Average annual growth ( )
What we’ve got Food and grocery growth Food and grocery growth (inflation and volume) Inflation growth Volume growth
2 how we shop
How we shop Price sensitivity Percentage of food consumers mentioning price as a driver of store choice
How we shop Price sensitivity links Annual change in inflation and in price as a driver of store choice Food inflation Price mentions as driver Real household disposable income
How we shop Price more important Forecast of price sensitivity for this year %48.2%47.3%48.0%50.5% Food inflationReal household disposable income
How we shop Dynamics of sensitivity Differences in those concerned about price (2003 v 2010) % 9.8% 32.2% 22.5%
How we shop It’s not all bad news Factors driving demand Cinema attendance Pub going Dining out Foreign holidays UK holidays
How we shop The premium honeypot Growth segments in food retail (2011 to 2012) PremiumMainstreamValue 6.7% 2.2% 5.1%
How we shop The premium honeypot Competitors will put effort behind ‘best’ (5%)(20%)(16%)
How we shop It’s easier to go down, than to go up What do attributes mean? PriceQuality
How we shop The great balancing act The parable of Neil’s shopping trip (based on a true story) What Neil wantedWhat Neil also purchased £21.94£42.69
How we shop In a nutshell ConstrainedFrugalSave moneyTrade up Market share Volume
3 what it means
What it means Everyday value
What it means Innovation
What it means Clarity Layouts Ranges Promotions Stores
What it means Segmentation
What it means Stimulation Customer shares over Christmas 2010 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 LevelPlayers operating at this levelUsual shopXmas shop 3.6%6.9% 16.9%15.5% 37.1%34.7% 35.7%33.4% 1.5%1.6% 4.1%3.2%
What it means The recipe for success EmpathyEditingEmotionExcitement
Verdict – 27 years of retail research Think Retail, Think Verdict.
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