1. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 1 Matthias Koller Ines Flügel Julia Dose Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) Section I 1.1 Fundamental Aspects and Environmental Strategies Quality assurance for forward looking assessment studies in the Federal Environment Agency- on the way to good practice guidelines

2. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 2 2) Forward looking studies at the the UBA 3) Problems and Challenges 4) Approaches for quality improvement and assurance 1) About the UBA Agenda

3. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 3 The Federal Environment Agency (UBA)...

4. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 4 1974: Established by law as an independent Federal authority 1986 assigned to Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Largest scientific Environmental Agency on Federal level 1.126 Employees in 1.000 positions 108 mio. Euro budget (incl. 20 mio. € research funds) 7 Locations and 22 air quality measuring stations Some facts about the UBA

5. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 5 Assessing the state of the environment Advising in environmental questions (esp. support of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety) Collecting Data and Providing environmental information Executing Statutory Provisions/Law Enforcement Educating the General Public Tasks of the UBA

6. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 6 strategic topics of the UBA climate protection sustainable development in Germany, EU, worldwide demand / consumption as a cause for pressure on human health and natural resources prevention of environment related health risks spatial and cross- media protection of natural livelihood transport as a cause for pressure on human health and natural resources production of and trade with goods and services as a cause for pressure on natural resources

7. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 7 Around 10 scenario studies ongoing and about 20 models in use –> lack of overview A wide range of topics is covered (but which ones exactly) Diverse methods of scenario studies (always the appropriate one?) Varying types of models (transparency, accuracy, …) Problem of divergent basic assumptions (lack of consistency) Data collection, storage and updating (and avoidance of redundant efforts) Using consistent data sources Challenges concerning the foward looking assessments at the UBA

8. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 8 (Inventory) analysis of forward looking assessment tools (scenario studies, prognostic models …) „SWOT“ - Analysis Workshop with external experts Guidelines for good practice Case study First steps towards a better practice

9. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 9 Inventory Analysis of the Scenarios and Modells at the UBA

10. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 10 Environmental Areas covered by UBA scenario studies

11. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 11 Links of models

12. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 12 Consistency of basic assumptions (1)

13. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 13 Consistency of basic assumptions (2)

14. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 14 1. Energy reference scenario 2. Policy scenarios III 3. Policy scenarios IV 4. Long term scenarios 5. Expansion of renewable energies scenario 6. NAWARO-AREAS 7. BASiS 8. Climate scenarios 9. Scenarios of emissions from agriculture Classification of UBA scenario studies

15. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 15 1. Meadows: Limits to Growth 2. GEO-3 Scenarios (RIVM/UNEP,2003) 3. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (SEI/GSG,) 4. Bending the curve: Toward Global Sustainability (SEI/GSG, 1998) 5. Scenarios Europe 2010: Five possible futures for Europe (European Commission Forward Studies Unit, 1999) 6. VISIONS (European Commission, 2001) 7. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000) 8. Global Scenarios 2000- 2050 (WBCSD, 1998) …and of international scenario studies

16. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 16 Scientificness requirements (reproducibility, transparency,…) difficulty of integrating existing scenario studies credibility of scenario studies, esp. qualitative storylines appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative scenarios: main drawbacks, combining information Workshop on quality assurance within scenario studies – discussion points

17. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 17 Participants agree on: –the necessity and usefulness of a continuous dialog about these topics –the needs for transparency in scenario assumptions (disclosure and open documentation) and underlying models –validation of / agreeing on underlying assumptions –the importance of an appropriate participation of all relevant stakeholders Workshop on quality assurance within scenario studies - results (1)

18. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 18 Participants disagree on: –The necessary minimum requirements for scenario studies concerning standards of scientificness (esp. reproducibility) –the optimum use of different types of scenarios approaches with respect to different types of problems –how to tackle the credibility problem (qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios?) Workshop on quality assurance within in scenario studies – results (2)

19. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 19 Objectives technical, organisational and communicative improvements of the scenario work within the UBA by good practice proposals with respect to the: … awareness and creativity in the initial stage used approaches and methods participation of stakeholders definition of design and scope of the scenario studies use of existing knowledge and avoidance of redundant work inclusion of surprises and unexpected developments dealing with uncertainties Guidelines for good practice

20. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 20 continued: integration of peer reviews sensitivity analyses consistency, plausibility, up-to-dateness and representativeness of data and assumptions establishing and maintaining a common database uniform terminology => glossary transparency ex-post evaluation continuation and update of scenario studies documentation and communication use for policy consultation ……. Guidelines for good practice (2)

21. EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments, 19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen 21 Matthias Koller matthias.koller@uba.de Ines Flügel ines.fluegel@uba.de Julia Dose julia.dose@uba.de www.umweltbundesamt.de Thank you for your attention!