Presentation on theme: "Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean Laszlo Pinter, PhD NRC FLIS Annual Meeting Ljubljana, Slovenia."— Presentation transcript:
Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean Laszlo Pinter, PhD NRC FLIS Annual Meeting Ljubljana, Slovenia February 16-17, L. Pinter
Rationale Regarding MEA implementation….. “Tendency not to take on a specific MEA and due to perception it belongs to a single Ministry and not relevant to others” “What is the national development plan and how does the MEA fit into this. Need to show that the MEA fits into the plan and is not additional work.” “They need to highlight what the national benefit is of the MEAs. The minister needs to see how and why it is good for the country” 2L. Pinter
Rationale Regarding Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting… “They are not useful because by the time the documents is compiled and published the information is old, no longer relevant” “Knowledge is required to change culture…How will my livelihood be impacted by the change in the environment? “The best type of information in these reports are best practices. This makes it real for the decision makers, otherwise the information is intangible” 3L. Pinter
#1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities #2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAs #3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes #4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future Outcomes MEA Outcome Planning #6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING #5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary 5L. Pinter
#1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities #2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAs #3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes #4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future Outcomes MEA Outcome Planning #6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief Tool #1: MEA Priorities Mapping using Ecosystem - Wellbeing Linkages Tool #2: MEA Synergy Mapping using DPSIR Analysis Tool #3: Setting the Challenge Scenario Tool #5: Policy Stress Testing using Existing Scenarios Tool #4: Policy Mapping and Back-casting Tool #6: Policy Planning Brief IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING #5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary 6L. Pinter
STEP 1 Demonstrating the Relevance of MEAs to National and Sector Priorities Using Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) Tools
MEA Development Priority Tool #1 Priorities Mapping Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments and national and sectoral priorities
9 Example Impact Pathway Diagram Change in Coastal Water Quality Cultural – a change in the ability of the reef to provide recreation and eco-tourism opportunities Livelihoods – of local residents Health – of local residents that snorkel or dive the reef for recreation
Analytic steps Step #1: Identifying Human Wellbeing Aspects Step #2: Identifying Ecosystem Services Step #3: Identifying Linkages Between Human Wellbeing and Ecosystem Services Step #4: Compile data on current status, trends and scenarios for human wellbeing aspects and ecosystem services Step #5: Develop compelling narrative demonstrating the importance of MEA commitments to national development priorities L. Pinter10
National or Sectoral Development Priority Human Wellbeing Aspects (from MA list) Flourishing Tourism Sector Livelihoods Opportunity to express and observe cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems Relevant Ecosystem Services (from MA List) State of Environment Aspect of the LBS Food (fish)Quality of Coastal Environment (control, prevent and reduce pollution of marine coastal environment) Genetic resources Ornamental resources Storm protection Recreation and tourism Education
STEP 2 Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools
Tool #2 MEA Synergy Mapping Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments, national and sectoral priorities
MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE States, Pressures and Drivers MEA Goals and Targets Corresponding to Environmental States, Pressures and Drivers Key Synergies MEA #1 United Nations Frame work Convention on Climate Change MEA #2 United Nations Convention on Combating Desertification States of the Environment List the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific targets cited Atmosphere Climate Change Soil Desertification Climate change intensifies drought intensifying desertification Pressures List the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific targets cited in the MEA and identify line departments having an influence. Rising CO 2 from energy use CO 2 emissions from land-use changes Land-use intensification Water shortages Application of fertilizers Land use changes increase atmospheric CO 2
MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE Drivers List the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific targets cited Global resource consumption Population growth Rising affluence International trade Global resource consumption Population growth Rising affluence International trade 1.Rising food demand 2.land use intensifies 3.increase CO 2 Impacts Articulate the primary impacts associated with changes in the environmental state(s). Use the ecosystem services and human wellbeing categories to assist with this analysis. For each wellbeing impact identify line departments who’s priorities may be affected by the impact. Water shortages (impacts on agricultural production, reduced food security) Soil degradation (reduction in crop cultivation, human health and nutrition) Soil degradation (decreased food security, poverty intensifies) 1. Climate change = desertification. 2. Combating desertification may reduce vulnerabilities to climate change impacts on food production.
STEP 3 Envisioning Desired Future MEA Outcomes
Not thinking about the future is detrimental to strategy………….
Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?
Creating the desired future outcomes Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators and targets (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/country Present Future How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes? -Some of our current policies and actions could get us there -New policies could be needed to get us to the desired future -Need to account for long- term trends and surprises Desired future goals based on the MEAS
Envisioning desired future MEA outcomes Desired future outcomes Decrease monoculture forestry by 30% Maintain high and stable timber supply (mil m 3 of wood) Achieve at least 80% of current economic returns from forest sector Present Future How can we achieve the desired future outcomes? -Current economic diversification policy could be used to explore new types of products (from different species) -Revising species and planting guidelines to include native tree species -Setting quotas for species composition -Estimate how the revenues are sensitive to changes in wood prices and new construction demands (what if questions )
MEA Challenge Scenario Worksheet States, Pressures and Drivers MEA Commitments Key SynergiesIndicators and Targets MEA #1MEA #2 States of the Environment List the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited Pressures List the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA Drivers List the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited
Analytic steps Step #1: Highlight the specific MEA goals and specific commitments associated with the environmental states, pressures and drivers Step #2: Identify the relevant indicators for each of the MEA goals/commitments Step #3: List the specific targets articulated in the MEA? If none, review information sources for targets in the order discussed previously L. Pinter22
STEP 4 IDENTIFYING A PORTFOLIO OF MEA POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING DESIRED FUTURE OUTCOMES
Sustainable future = ? current reality time Backcasting... (i.e. ” what do we want? ” ) Strategies and actions = ? (What are some basics?) University of Delft, 2008
Creating the desired future outcomes Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/country Present Future How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes? -Some of our current policies and actions could get us there -Need to account for long- term trends and surprises -New policies could be adopted to get us to the desired future Desired future goals based on the MEAS Completed Current focus
STATE and TRENDS E.g. water IMPACTS Aspects of human well- being PRESSURES Anthropogenic and natural Sectors Human influences Natural processes DRIVERS Indirect influence through human development MEA Policy Map Policy 3 Policy 4 Policy 5 Policy 6 Policy 8 Policy 7 Policy 1 Policy 2 Tool #4 Policy Mapping Using the Driving Forces- - Pressure – State – Impact – Response analysis framework to map existing policies from a systems perspective
STATE and TRENDS River Water Quality IMPACTS Nutrition and hydration Livelihoods Recreational and Cultural enjoyment PRESSURES Sewage Discharge Sectors Human influences Natural processes DRIVERS Urban Growth Decreased fish catches Less drinking water MEA Policy Map Infrastructure expenditures Sewer charges Water quality standards In-situ treatment Food imports Water imports Job creation incentives Spatial development regulations Creating a Policy Map – Example
Policy Analysis Questions Is the current portfolio of policies directed at the MEA sufficient to achieve the desired long-term outcome target? What are the leverage points (D, P, S, I) and are effective policies being directed at these leverage points? Is a mix of instruments being used (economic, regulatory, expenditure, institutional)?
Analytic steps Step #1: Create a policy map for your MEA using the template provided Step #2: Analyse the policy map by addressing the three policy analysis questions Step 3: Make recommendations to address the policy gaps
STEP 5 ASSESSING RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND ADAPTATIONS
Policy Stress Testing To identify key policy performance risks and uncertainties that could prevent achievement of MEA outcomes To identify key opportunities To improve and adapt the portfolio of policies as necessary to ensure maintain progress toward MEA outcomes
Policy Stress Testing Idea of policy stress testing is to identify key factors that impact on policy performance Then examine policy performance under plausible future conditions that consider the most important and uncertain factors Can use existing scenario information to do this
GEO LAC 3 Scenarios:
GEO LAC 3 Scenarios 34 Relegated SustainabilitySustainability Reforms Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts Transition to Sustainability GEO 4 Scenarios
Policy Stress Test Considering each of the GEO LAC 3 scenarios, address the following questions: – Risks: Is achievement of desired MEA target(s) at risk given the plausible future conditions outlined in the scenario? If so, what factors are likely to have the most impact, and how? What adaptations for the portfolio of MEA policies are necessary to mitigate against the potential risks? – Opportunities: What opportunities does the scenario present for achieving desired MEA target(s) that have not yet been considered? What actions are necessary for the portfolio of MEA policies to be able to leverage the opportunities that may present themselves in the future?
SESSION 6 PREPARING THE MEA POLICY PLANNING BRIEF
MEA Policy Brief Template 1. Key MEA commitments and their relevance to national development priorities:...[summarize results from Tool #1 MEA Priorities Mapping]… 2. MEA Synergies and Important Stakeholders within and outside of government: … [summarize the results of Tool #2 MEA Synergies Mapping]… 3. Possible future MEA outcome targets: …[summarize the results of Tool #3 MEA Policy Mapping]… 4. Existing MEA Policy Inventory and Recommendations: …[summarize the results of Tool #4 5. Risks and Opportunities for Achieving MEA Outcomes: ….[summarize the results of Tool #5 Policy Stress Testing]…