Presentation on theme: "NRC FLIS Annual Meeting"— Presentation transcript:
1 NRC FLIS Annual Meeting Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the CaribbeanLaszlo Pinter, PhDNRC FLIS Annual MeetingLjubljana, SloveniaFebruary 16-17, 2012L. Pinter
2 Rationale Regarding MEA implementation….. “Tendency not to take on a specific MEA and due to perception it belongs to a single Ministry and not relevant to others”“What is the national development plan and how does the MEA fit into this. Need to show that the MEA fits into the plan and is not additional work.”“They need to highlight what the national benefit is of the MEAs. The minister needs to see how and why it is good for the country”L. Pinter
3 Rationale Regarding Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting… “They are not useful because by the time the documents is compiled and published the information is old, no longer relevant”“Knowledge is required to change culture…How will my livelihood be impacted by the change in the environment?“The best type of information in these reports are best practices. This makes it real for the decision makers, otherwise the information is intangible”L. Pinter
5 MEA Outcome Planning IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING #1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities#6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief#2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAsMEAOutcome Planning#3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes#5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary#4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future OutcomesL. Pinter
6 MEA Outcome Planning IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING #1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development PrioritiesTool #1: MEA Priorities Mapping using Ecosystem - Wellbeing Linkages#6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief#2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAsTool #6: Policy Planning BriefTool #2: MEA Synergy Mapping using DPSIR AnalysisMEAOutcome PlanningTool #5: Policy Stress Testing using Existing Scenarios#3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes#5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as NecessaryTool #3: Setting the Challenge Scenario#4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future OutcomesTool #4: Policy Mapping and Back-castingL. Pinter
7 Demonstrating the Relevance of MEAs to National and Sector Priorities Using Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) ToolsStep 1
8 Tool #1 Priorities Mapping Development PriorityMEAUsing ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments and national and sectoral priorities
9 Example Impact Pathway Diagram Change in Coastal Water QualityCultural – a change in the ability of the reef to provide recreation and eco-tourism opportunitiesLivelihoods – of local residentsHealth – of local residents that snorkel or dive the reef for recreation
10 Analytic steps Step #1: Identifying Human Wellbeing Aspects Step #2: Identifying Ecosystem ServicesStep #3: Identifying Linkages Between Human Wellbeing and Ecosystem ServicesStep #4: Compile data on current status, trends and scenarios for human wellbeing aspects and ecosystem servicesStep #5: Develop compelling narrative demonstrating the importance of MEA commitments to national development prioritiesL. Pinter
11 National or Sectoral Development Priority Human Wellbeing Aspects (from MA list)Flourishing Tourism SectorLivelihoodsOpportunity to express and observe cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystemsRelevant Ecosystem Services(from MA List)State of Environment Aspect of the LBSFood (fish)Quality of Coastal Environment (control, prevent and reduce pollution of marine coastal environment)Genetic resourcesOrnamental resourcesStorm protectionRecreation and tourismEducation
12 Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools STEP 2
13 Tool #2 MEA Synergy Mapping Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments, national and sectoral priorities
14 MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE States, Pressures and DriversMEA Goals and Targets Corresponding to Environmental States, Pressures and DriversKey SynergiesMEA #1United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeMEA #2United NationsConvention on Combating DesertificationStates of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific targets citedAtmosphereClimate ChangeSoilDesertificationClimate change intensifies drought intensifying desertificationPressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific targets cited in the MEA and identify line departments having an influence.Rising CO2 from energy useCO2 emissions from land-use changesLand-use intensificationWater shortagesApplication of fertilizersLand use changes increase atmospheric CO2
15 MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE DriversList the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific targets citedGlobal resource consumptionPopulation growthRising affluenceInternational tradeRising food demandland use intensifiesincrease CO2ImpactsArticulate the primary impacts associated with changes in the environmental state(s). Use the ecosystem services and human wellbeing categories to assist with this analysis. For each wellbeing impact identify line departments who’s priorities may be affected by the impact.Water shortages (impacts on agricultural production, reduced food security)Soil degradation (reduction in crop cultivation, human health and nutrition)Soil degradation (decreased food security, poverty intensifies)1. Climate change = desertification. 2. Combating desertification may reduce vulnerabilities to climate change impacts on food production.
17 Not thinking about the future is detrimental to strategy………….
18 Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?
19 Creating the desired future outcomes Desired future goals based on the MEASHow can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?Some of our current policies and actions could get us thereNew policies could be needed to get us to the desired futureNeed to account for long-term trends and surprisesDesired future outcomes expressed as indicators and targets (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/countryPresent Future
20 Envisioning desired future MEA outcomes How can we achieve the desired future outcomes?Current economic diversification policy could be used to explore new types of products (from different species)Revising species and planting guidelines to include native tree speciesSetting quotas for species compositionEstimate how the revenues are sensitive to changes in wood prices and new construction demands (what if questions)Desired future outcomesDecrease monoculture forestry by 30%Maintain high and stable timber supply (mil m3 of wood)Achieve at least 80% of current economic returns from forest sectorPresent Future
21 MEA Challenge Scenario Worksheet States, Pressures and DriversMEA CommitmentsKey SynergiesIndicators and TargetsMEA #1MEA #2States of the EnvironmentList the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments citedPressuresList the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEADriversList the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited
22 Analytic stepsStep #1: Highlight the specific MEA goals and specific commitments associated with the environmental states, pressures and driversStep #2: Identify the relevant indicators for each of the MEA goals/commitmentsStep #3: List the specific targets articulated in the MEA? If none, review information sources for targets in the order discussed previouslyL. Pinter
23 IDENTIFYING A PORTFOLIO OF MEA POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING DESIRED FUTURE OUTCOMES Step 4
24 Backcasting... (i.e. ”what do we want?”) Sustainablefuture = ?(What aresome basics?)Strategies and actions = ?current realitytimeUniversity of Delft, 2008
25 Creating the desired future outcomes Current focusCompletedDesired future goals based on the MEASHow can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?Some of our current policies and actions could get us thereNeed to account for long-term trends and surprisesNew policies could be adopted to get us to the desired futureDesired future outcomes expressed as indicators (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/countryCompletedPresent Future
26 Tool #4 Policy Mapping STATE and TRENDS E.g. water IMPACTS Using the Driving Forces- - Pressure – State – Impact – Response analysis framework to map existing policies from a systems perspectiveSTATE and TRENDSE.g. waterIMPACTSAspects of human well-beingPRESSURESAnthropogenic and naturalSectorsHuman influencesNatural processesDRIVERSIndirect influence through human developmentMEA Policy MapPolicy 3Policy 4Policy 5Policy 6Policy 8Policy 7Policy 1Policy 2
27 Creating a Policy Map – Example DRIVERSUrban GrowthPRESSURESSewage DischargeSectorsHuman influencesNatural processesJob creation incentivesIMPACTSNutrition and hydrationLivelihoodsRecreational and Cultural enjoymentSpatial development regulationsFood importsInfrastructure expendituresMEA Policy MapWater importsDecreased fish catchesLess drinking waterSewer chargesWater quality standardsIn-situ treatmentSTATE and TRENDSRiver Water Quality
28 Policy Analysis Questions Is the current portfolio of policies directed at the MEA sufficient to achieve the desired long-term outcome target?What are the leverage points (D, P, S, I) and are effective policies being directed at these leverage points?Is a mix of instruments being used (economic, regulatory, expenditure, institutional)?
29 Analytic stepsStep #1: Create a policy map for your MEA using the template providedStep #2: Analyse the policy map by addressing the three policy analysis questionsStep 3: Make recommendations to address the policy gaps
30 ASSESSING RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND ADAPTATIONS STEP 5
31 Policy Stress TestingTo identify key policy performance risks and uncertainties that could prevent achievement of MEA outcomesTo identify key opportunitiesTo improve and adapt the portfolio of policies as necessary to ensure maintain progress toward MEA outcomes
32 Policy Stress TestingIdea of policy stress testing is to identify key factors that impact on policy performanceThen examine policy performance under plausible future conditions that consider the most important and uncertain factorsCan use existing scenario information to do this
34 GEO LAC 3 Scenarios Overview of the scenarios Relegated SustainabilitySustainability ReformsUnsustainability and Increased ConflictsTransition to SustainabilityOverview of the scenariosA) Relegated Sustainability (RS) –economic growth takes the priority. There is a strong emphasis on market forces which permits rapid economic growth; however at the cost of placing greater pressure on the environment and less advancements in social areas. There is a strong emphasis on continued consumption of natural resources to maintain economic activity, and natural resources are all exposed to market forces.B) Sustainability Reforms (SR)- strong emphasis on developing new policies and regulations to ease the adverse effects of the past preference placed on unregulated markets. While environmental and social problems are eased there is still a strong emphasis on pursuing the market approach to development which prevents significant advancements to be made. Science and technological capacities are strengthened and institutions however only in the identified prioritized areas. Similarly advancements are made in some environmental areas (controlling air pollution) while others persist (land management). More investments in health, education, environment and development assistance provided and new approaches to credit policies there is more rapid progress in achieving social goals without sacrificing economic development.C) Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts (UIC)- this scenario is characterized by a marked socioeconomic and political fragmentation with growing disparities between the rich and poor. Growing inequality and social fragmentation due to low investments in environmental issues and social services is prominent. The control of natural resources remains in the hands of the powerful elite and large corporations and only those that are of their interests are well-preserved. Violence and socio-political conflicts are considerable with strong migratory pressures.D) Transition to Sustainability- this scenario places sustainability first, that is emphasizing the integration of the combination of economic, social and environmental factors, and a greater emphasis on human development. Regional economic integration increases and there is less consumption in materials and natural resources. Migratory pressures are reduced and basic needs are met without growing threats to natural resources. Decision making processes are more transparent and balanced. Economic growth and equal distribution of the wealth is greatest in this scenario and is due to increased investments in health, education, and environmentally sustainable technologies.34
37 Policy Stress TestConsidering each of the GEO LAC 3 scenarios, address the following questions:Risks: Is achievement of desired MEA target(s) at risk given the plausible future conditions outlined in the scenario? If so, what factors are likely to have the most impact, and how? What adaptations for the portfolio of MEA policies are necessary to mitigate against the potential risks?Opportunities: What opportunities does the scenario present for achieving desired MEA target(s) that have not yet been considered? What actions are necessary for the portfolio of MEA policies to be able to leverage the opportunities that may present themselves in the future?
38 PREPARING THE MEA POLICY PLANNING BRIEF Session 6
39 MEA Policy Brief Template 1. Key MEA commitments and their relevance to national development priorities:...[summarize results from Tool #1 MEA Priorities Mapping]…2. MEA Synergies and Important Stakeholders within and outside of government:… [summarize the results of Tool #2 MEA Synergies Mapping]…3. Possible future MEA outcome targets:…[summarize the results of Tool #3 MEA Policy Mapping]…4. Existing MEA Policy Inventory and Recommendations:…[summarize the results of Tool #45. Risks and Opportunities for Achieving MEA Outcomes:….[summarize the results of Tool #5 Policy Stress Testing]…