1. NRC FLIS Annual Meeting
Policy Uses of National Environment Outlook Information: Perspectives from the Caribbean
Laszlo Pinter, PhD
NRC FLIS Annual Meeting
Ljubljana, Slovenia
February 16-17, 2012
L. Pinter

2. Rationale Regarding MEA implementation…..
“Tendency not to take on a specific MEA and due to perception it belongs to a single Ministry and not relevant to others”
“What is the national development plan and how does the MEA fit into this. Need to show that the MEA fits into the plan and is not additional work.”
“They need to highlight what the national benefit is of the MEAs. The minister needs to see how and why it is good for the country”
L. Pinter

3. Rationale Regarding Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting…
“They are not useful because by the time the documents is compiled and published the information is old, no longer relevant”
“Knowledge is required to change culture…How will my livelihood be impacted by the change in the environment?
“The best type of information in these reports are best practices. This makes it real for the decision makers, otherwise the information is intangible”
L. Pinter

4. L. Pinter

5. MEA Outcome Planning IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING
#1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities
#6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief
#2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAs
MEA
Outcome Planning
#3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes
#5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary
#4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future Outcomes
L. Pinter

6. MEA Outcome Planning IMPLEMENTATION AND REPORTING
#1 Clarify Focal MEAs, Status and Linkages with Development Priorities
Tool #1: MEA Priorities Mapping using Ecosystem - Wellbeing Linkages
#6 Prepare MEA Policy Planning Brief
#2 Identify Synergies Among Focal MEAs
Tool #6: Policy Planning Brief
Tool #2: MEA Synergy Mapping using DPSIR Analysis
MEA
Outcome Planning
Tool #5: Policy Stress Testing using Existing Scenarios
#3 Articulate Desired Future Outcomes
#5 Assess Risks and Opportunities and Improve and Adapt as Necessary
Tool #3: Setting the Challenge Scenario
#4 Identify Portfolio of MEA Policies for Achieving Future Outcomes
Tool #4: Policy Mapping and Back-casting
L. Pinter

7. Demonstrating the Relevance of MEAs to National and Sector Priorities Using Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) Tools
Step 1

8. Tool #1 Priorities Mapping
Development Priority
MEA
Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments and national and sectoral priorities

9. Example Impact Pathway Diagram
Change in Coastal Water Quality
Cultural – a change in the ability of the reef to provide recreation and eco-tourism opportunities
Livelihoods – of local residents
Health – of local residents that snorkel or dive the reef for recreation

10. Analytic steps Step #1: Identifying Human Wellbeing Aspects
Step #2: Identifying Ecosystem Services
Step #3: Identifying Linkages Between Human Wellbeing and Ecosystem Services
Step #4: Compile data on current status, trends and scenarios for human wellbeing aspects and ecosystem services
Step #5: Develop compelling narrative demonstrating the importance of MEA commitments to national development priorities
L. Pinter

11. National or Sectoral Development Priority Human Wellbeing Aspects
(from MA list)
Flourishing Tourism Sector
Livelihoods
Opportunity to express and observe cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems
Relevant Ecosystem Services
(from MA List)
State of Environment Aspect of the LBS
Food (fish)
Quality of Coastal Environment (control, prevent and reduce pollution of marine coastal environment)
Genetic resources
Ornamental resources
Storm protection
Recreation and tourism
Education

12. Identifying Synergies Among MEAs Using IEA Tools
STEP 2

13. Tool #2 MEA Synergy Mapping
Using ecosystem services / human wellbeing linkages from the IEA toolkit to map the connections between MEA commitments, national and sectoral priorities

14. MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE
States, Pressures and Drivers
MEA Goals and Targets Corresponding to Environmental States, Pressures and Drivers
Key Synergies
MEA #1
United Nations Frame
work Convention on Climate Change
MEA #2
United Nations
Convention on Combating Desertification
States of the Environment
List the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific targets cited
Atmosphere
Climate Change
Soil
Desertification
Climate change intensifies drought intensifying desertification
Pressures
List the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific targets cited in the MEA and identify line departments having an influence.
Rising CO2 from energy use
CO2 emissions from land-use changes
Land-use intensification
Water shortages
Application of fertilizers
Land use changes increase atmospheric CO2

15. MEA Synergies Worksheet - EXAMPLE
Drivers
List the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific targets cited
Global resource consumption
Population growth
Rising affluence
International trade
Rising food demand
land use intensifies
increase CO2
Impacts
Articulate the primary impacts associated with changes in the environmental state(s). Use the ecosystem services and human wellbeing categories to assist with this analysis. For each wellbeing impact identify line departments who’s priorities may be affected by the impact.
Water shortages (impacts on agricultural production, reduced food security)
Soil degradation (reduction in crop cultivation, human health and nutrition)
Soil degradation (decreased food security, poverty intensifies)
1. Climate change = desertification. 2. Combating desertification may reduce vulnerabilities to climate change impacts on food production.

16. Envisioning Desired Future MEA Outcomes
STEP 3

17. Not thinking about the future is detrimental to strategy………….

18. Backcasting Where do we want to go? How do we get there?
Where do we want not to go? How do we avoid getting there?

19. Creating the desired future outcomes
Desired future goals based on the MEAS
How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?
Some of our current policies and actions could get us there
New policies could be needed to get us to the desired future
Need to account for long-term trends and surprises
Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators and targets (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/country
Present Future

20. Envisioning desired future MEA outcomes
How can we achieve the desired future outcomes?
Current economic diversification policy could be used to explore new types of products (from different species)
Revising species and planting guidelines to include native tree species
Setting quotas for species composition
Estimate how the revenues are sensitive to changes in wood prices and new construction demands (what if questions)
Desired future outcomes
Decrease monoculture forestry by 30%
Maintain high and stable timber supply (mil m3 of wood)
Achieve at least 80% of current economic returns from forest sector
Present Future

21. MEA Challenge Scenario Worksheet
States, Pressures and Drivers
MEA Commitments
Key Synergies
Indicators and Targets
MEA #1
MEA #2
States of the Environment
List the state(s) of the environment that the MEA is addressing, along with specific commitments cited
Pressures
List the direct pressures on the state(s) of the environment identified above. For each pressure list specific commitments in the MEA
Drivers
List the high-level drivers of change influencing the direct pressures identified above, along with any specific commitments cited

22. Analytic steps
Step #1: Highlight the specific MEA goals and specific commitments associated with the environmental states, pressures and drivers
Step #2: Identify the relevant indicators for each of the MEA goals/commitments
Step #3: List the specific targets articulated in the MEA? If none, review information sources for targets in the order discussed previously
L. Pinter

23. IDENTIFYING A PORTFOLIO OF MEA POLICIES FOR ACHIEVING DESIRED FUTURE OUTCOMES
Step 4

24. Backcasting... (i.e. ”what do we want?”)
Sustainable
future = ?
(What are
some basics?)
Strategies and actions = ?
current reality
time
University of Delft, 2008

25. Creating the desired future outcomes
Current focus
Completed
Desired future goals based on the MEAS
How can we achieve the desired future goals and outcomes?
Some of our current policies and actions could get us there
Need to account for long-term trends and surprises
New policies could be adopted to get us to the desired future
Desired future outcomes expressed as indicators (qualitative and quantitative) relevant for the area/country
Completed
Present Future

26. Tool #4 Policy Mapping STATE and TRENDS E.g. water IMPACTS
Using the Driving Forces- - Pressure – State – Impact – Response analysis framework to map existing policies from a systems perspective
STATE and TRENDS
E.g. water
IMPACTS
Aspects of human well-being
PRESSURES
Anthropogenic and natural
Sectors
Human influences
Natural processes
DRIVERS
Indirect influence through human development
MEA Policy Map
Policy 3
Policy 4
Policy 5
Policy 6
Policy 8
Policy 7
Policy 1
Policy 2

27. Creating a Policy Map – Example
DRIVERS
Urban Growth
PRESSURES
Sewage Discharge
Sectors
Human influences
Natural processes
Job creation incentives
IMPACTS
Nutrition and hydration
Livelihoods
Recreational and Cultural enjoyment
Spatial development regulations
Food imports
Infrastructure expenditures
MEA Policy Map
Water imports
Decreased fish catches
Less drinking water
Sewer charges
Water quality standards
In-situ treatment
STATE and TRENDS
River Water Quality

28. Policy Analysis Questions
Is the current portfolio of policies directed at the MEA sufficient to achieve the desired long-term outcome target?
What are the leverage points (D, P, S, I) and are effective policies being directed at these leverage points?
Is a mix of instruments being used (economic, regulatory, expenditure, institutional)?

29. Analytic steps
Step #1: Create a policy map for your MEA using the template provided
Step #2: Analyse the policy map by addressing the three policy analysis questions
Step 3: Make recommendations to address the policy gaps

30. ASSESSING RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES AND ADAPTATIONS
STEP 5

31. Policy Stress Testing
To identify key policy performance risks and uncertainties that could prevent achievement of MEA outcomes
To identify key opportunities
To improve and adapt the portfolio of policies as necessary to ensure maintain progress toward MEA outcomes

32. Policy Stress Testing
Idea of policy stress testing is to identify key factors that impact on policy performance
Then examine policy performance under plausible future conditions that consider the most important and uncertain factors
Can use existing scenario information to do this

33. GEO LAC 3 Scenarios:

34. GEO LAC 3 Scenarios Overview of the scenarios
Relegated Sustainability
Sustainability Reforms
Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts
Transition to Sustainability
Overview of the scenarios
A) Relegated Sustainability (RS) –economic growth takes the priority. There is a strong emphasis on market forces which permits rapid economic growth; however at the cost of placing greater pressure on the environment and less advancements in social areas. There is a strong emphasis on continued consumption of natural resources to maintain economic activity, and natural resources are all exposed to market forces.
B) Sustainability Reforms (SR)- strong emphasis on developing new policies and regulations to ease the adverse effects of the past preference placed on unregulated markets. While environmental and social problems are eased there is still a strong emphasis on pursuing the market approach to development which prevents significant advancements to be made. Science and technological capacities are strengthened and institutions however only in the identified prioritized areas. Similarly advancements are made in some environmental areas (controlling air pollution) while others persist (land management). More investments in health, education, environment and development assistance provided and new approaches to credit policies there is more rapid progress in achieving social goals without sacrificing economic development.
C) Unsustainability and Increased Conflicts (UIC)- this scenario is characterized by a marked socioeconomic and political fragmentation with growing disparities between the rich and poor. Growing inequality and social fragmentation due to low investments in environmental issues and social services is prominent. The control of natural resources remains in the hands of the powerful elite and large corporations and only those that are of their interests are well-preserved. Violence and socio-political conflicts are considerable with strong migratory pressures.
D) Transition to Sustainability- this scenario places sustainability first, that is emphasizing the integration of the combination of economic, social and environmental factors, and a greater emphasis on human development. Regional economic integration increases and there is less consumption in materials and natural resources. Migratory pressures are reduced and basic needs are met without growing threats to natural resources. Decision making processes are more transparent and balanced. Economic growth and equal distribution of the wealth is greatest in this scenario and is due to increased investments in health, education, and environmentally sustainable technologies. 34

37. Policy Stress Test
Considering each of the GEO LAC 3 scenarios, address the following questions:
Risks: Is achievement of desired MEA target(s) at risk given the plausible future conditions outlined in the scenario? If so, what factors are likely to have the most impact, and how? What adaptations for the portfolio of MEA policies are necessary to mitigate against the potential risks?
Opportunities: What opportunities does the scenario present for achieving desired MEA target(s) that have not yet been considered? What actions are necessary for the portfolio of MEA policies to be able to leverage the opportunities that may present themselves in the future?

38. PREPARING THE MEA POLICY PLANNING BRIEF
Session 6

39. MEA Policy Brief Template
1. Key MEA commitments and their relevance to national development priorities:
...[summarize results from Tool #1 MEA Priorities Mapping]…
2. MEA Synergies and Important Stakeholders within and outside of government:
… [summarize the results of Tool #2 MEA Synergies Mapping]…
3. Possible future MEA outcome targets:
…[summarize the results of Tool #3 MEA Policy Mapping]…
4. Existing MEA Policy Inventory and Recommendations:
…[summarize the results of Tool #4
5. Risks and Opportunities for Achieving MEA Outcomes:
….[summarize the results of Tool #5 Policy Stress Testing]…

40. Further information: