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Energy EU ENERGY POLICY Context and Challenges Objectives, 2020 Targets, RM 2050, GP 2030, Growth and Jobs… MARC DEFFRENNES DG ENERGY.

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Presentation on theme: "Energy EU ENERGY POLICY Context and Challenges Objectives, 2020 Targets, RM 2050, GP 2030, Growth and Jobs… MARC DEFFRENNES DG ENERGY."— Presentation transcript:

1 Energy EU ENERGY POLICY Context and Challenges Objectives, 2020 Targets, RM 2050, GP 2030, Growth and Jobs… MARC DEFFRENNES DG ENERGY

2 Energy EU energy challenges 1. Sustainability (= Env Protection: GHG, +…) 2. Security of energy supply (ia stability and reliability of electricity supply…) 3. Competitiveness (incl "affordability for final consumer") In which order ??? To tackle these challenges, EU needs: an ambitious set of energy efficiency measures a proper mix of a wide range of low carbon energy sources (+ large investments!!!)

3 Energy Energy policy for Europe Integrated energy and climate policy Objective: 80 to 95 % GHG reduction in 2050 Year 2020 targets (2007): 3x20% AND SET Plan – needs 80 Billion Euros over 10 y 2 nd Strategic Energy Review (2008) CO2 free electricity in 2050 Energy Strategy 2020 (2010): 5 priorities (EE, Market Operation and Infrastructures, Innovation SET Plan, Safety and Security, International Cooperation)

4 Energy Energy Strategy 2020 and MFF(ia!): - PM: EERP and NER300: 1.5 BEuros for CCS and Wind BEuros for 43 RES Projects - Critical Infrastructures – ia energy networks EC proposed 10 Beuros – reduced in Council proposal - SET Plan: H2020 EC proposed 6.5 BEuros for Energy + Euratom - Regional/Structural Funds Energy and Innovation are priorities NEEDS ARE MUCH BIGGER - global endeavour: need MS and Industry on board… INVESTMENTS !!! Will the "Market" deliver ???

5 Energy Energy Roadmap 2050 Adopted by the Commission in December 2011; Presidency conclusions in June 2012 An exploration of possible futures for the EU energy system: 7 scenarios Diverse Long-term Perspectives and Mixes Discussion with Member States and stakeholders A basis for policy action = regulatory framework and financing/investment policy

6 Energy 6 Basis of scenarios 80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050 Efficient pathway: -25% in % in % in 2040 Context: Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap (Mar 2011)

7 Energy Energy Roadmap scenarios 1 Business as usual (Common Reference Scenario) 1bis Current Policy Initiatives scenario 2 High Energy Efficiency 3 Diversified supply technologies 4 High Renewables 5 Delayed CCS 6 Low Nuclear

8 Energy EU-27 results Reference scenario: GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions 40 years back and ahead (1990 = 100)

9 Energy Results Current Policy initiatives scenario: Primary energy demand, savings from REF and carbon intensity MtoeCarbon intensity

10 Energy Results Gross energy consumption: range in current trends and decarbonisation scenarios (in Mtoe) REF/CPI: effects of additional policies and updated assumptions Decarbonisation cases: effects from different policy focus / technology availability

11 Energy Results Share of electricity in final energy demand under current trends and with decarbonisation (in %) Range for current trends scenarios: Range regarding decarbonisation scenarios FROM 3100 to 4800 TWh PA

12 Energy Results Import dependency under current trends and decarbonisation in (%)

13 Energy Results Ratio of energy system costs to GDP under current trends and decarbonisation (average over ) * EU GDP = 15 Trillion Euros per year – 0.5% is 75 Billion Euros !!! per year

14 Energy Results: Shares in the energy mix

15 Energy Decarbonisation of the energy system: Some conclusions Decarbonisation under global climate action is feasible; several pathways are possible and costs do not differ substantially from current trends Reduction of energy consumption through energy efficiency improvements All decarbonisation options can contribute: EE, RES, nuclear, CCS But Renewables increases a lot in all cases Electricity will play a greater role in energy supplies (20% of final energy demand today, almost 40% by 2050) also in areas such as transport and heating = 4800 TWh per year in 2050 Power generation almost carbon free by 2050 Electricity prices increase up to 2030 and slightly decline afterwards (besides the High RES scenario where electricity is 25% more expensive) Transition from high fuel / operational expenditure to high capital expenditure Reduced import dependency and external fuel bill Massive investments in generation capacity and grids to ensure stable and reliable energy supply

16 Energy 0% 25% 50% 75% RESGasNuclearOilSolid fuels 0% 25% 50% 75% RESGasNuclearOilSolid fuels Renewables move centre stage – but all fuels can contribute in the long-run Decarbonisation scenarios - fuel ranges (primary energy consumption in %) Energy Roadmap 2050 – scenarios (2/2)

17 Energy A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies Marten Westrup European Commission, DG ENER Unit A1

18 Energy EMPLOYMENT ??? - Not properly taken into account in the RM2050 scenarios - Study ongoing (DG ENR A1): " Understanding of the labour market implications of the energy system transformation. The study should provide an analysis of employment effects for selected scenarios of En RM Tasks: 1. Collection of statistical data (base Eurostat disagregation) 2. Literature review about recent analysis of the labour market challenges associated with the transition of the energy system 3. Develop of employment scenarios assessing employment effects of the scenarios RM Sensitivity Analysis (5 parameters) 5. Provision of "Employment Coefficients" for future En Scenarios (ia jobs created by 1 GW, of per Euro invested…) - Contractor: COWI – Warwick+Cambridge+ErnstYoung+Exergia - Planning: 7 months – input for Impact Assessment Communication 2030

19 Energy Energy Roadmap 2050 – scenarios (1/2) 19 GHG reduction target in 2050 Energy RM 2050 ScenariiNuclear in electricity generation in %in 2050 [eq. capacity operating in GWe vs 125 GWe today] 40%Reference Scenario26,4% [161 GWe] 40%Current Policy Initiatives20,6% [117 GWe] 80%High Energy Efficiency14,2% [79 GWe] 80%Diversified supply technologies 16,1%[102 GWe] 80%High Renewables3,6%[41 GWe] 80%Delayed CCS19,2%[127 GWe] 80%Low Nuclear2,5%[16 GWe]

20 Energy For info - EURELECTRIC Study « PowerChoices » Scenario Target: EU 75% GHG reduction in 2050 vs 1990 to respect IPPC 4th Assessment: 440 ppm CO2 eq and 2 deg C 50% GHG reduction worldwide and 60 to 80% OECD Means carbon-free electricity in 2050 in EU = 2 nd SER Lot of energy efficiency and savings – primary energy needs decrease from 1800 Mtoe (2005) to 1400 Mtoe (2050) Electricity demand increases from 3100 to 4800 TWh Mainly RES – from 15% to 40 % – mainly wind 2x15 % by Coal and Gas Nuclear from 950 TWh to 1300 TWh (31 to 28%) Overall cost of PowerChoices: Investment needed: 2 trillion Euros for 2050 (of 2005)… EC estimation Power Infrastructures trillion Euros= 600B plants + 400B grid – of which 200B priority interconnections (10B from MFF Infrastructures Interconnecting Europe

21 Energy Nuclear in Energy Roadmap 2050 (2/2) Share of nuclear in decarbonisation scenarios vary depending on assumptions taken from 3 to 19 % in electricity – of 4800 TWh … 3 scenarios on 5 between 15 and 20%... BUT what does it mean: 20% of 4800 TWh electrical capacity needed in 2050 in terms of  Investments ?  Growth and Jobs ? 21

22 Energy 20% Nuclear Scenario 2050 (1/2) 22

23 Energy 20% Nuclear Scenario 2050 (2/2) 23

24 Energy 24 20% Nuclear Scenario Impact on Investments, Growth and Jobs Long Term Operation (100 Units) New Built (100 Units) Several units in construct in parallel Long term operation ( ) New Built ( ) Investments900 M€ per Unit5 B€ per Unit Jobs (base) In addition jobs (LTO + ST upgrades) In addition jobs (New Built) Value added 70 B€/y (base) In addition 5 B€/yIn addition 25 B€/y

25 Energy (Perspectives for nuclear in EU…???) Further development is contingent on: high level of nuclear safety & security - at large (technology, waste mgnt, emerg mgnt, liability,…) public acceptance + MS position on nuclear climate targets maintained + how well are "others" doing positive investment climate international cooperation and opportunities research and innovation critical – leadership/knowledge

26 Energy THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Energy Employment


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