Presentation on theme: "SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May."— Presentation transcript:
SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May 23, 2012 – Atlanta, GA
2 SEMAP Project SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project Managed through SESARM Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV
3 Outline Emission Inventory Development WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ Future Year Projections for O 3, PM 2.5, RH Ozone Emission Sensitivities Regional Haze Periodic Reporting
4 Important Note SEMAP states do not have any moderate or serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS. Regional Haze periodic reports do not require photochemical modeling. Most likely, none of this modeling will be used in any SIPs.
5 Emission Inventory Emissions Inventory Contractors –AMEC/Alpine Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions. –TranSystems Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions. “Actual” Emission Inventory (2007) –Used for model performance evaluations “Typical” Emission Inventory (2006-2008) –EGUs and fires –Used for model projections and RRF calculations Future Year Inventory – 2020 –Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MAR –Rerun NONROAD –Inventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY)
14 Meteorological Modeling WRF Model Set-Up –36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US –35 Vertical Layers –Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation –Morrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2 (PBL) Modeling Centers –NC DENR and IA DNR Model Performance Evaluation –Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) –NC DENR and GA EPD
Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions (SMOKE) Emissions Inventory (NIF) MOVES Inputs
18 Emissions Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor –Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format) –Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVES –Created biogenic emissions (BEIS) –Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO Emissions Part 75 data replacement for CEMS –Details on next slide All 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.
20 2007 Air Quality Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor 2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.0 –36 and 12 km grids –Model Performance Evaluation –Diagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor) New CMAQv5.0 Model Options –Additional new crustal species YES –In-line plume rise for point sources YES –In-line lightning NOx YES –In-line bi-directional NH3 flux NO –In-line biogenic emissions NO –In-line wind blown dust NO
23 2020 Air Quality Modeling 2020 Annual Emisisons Modeling –SMOKE for most source sectors –MOVES: Ratio Approach using Inventory Mode 2020 Annual CMAQ Modeling –Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze –Follow EPA’s RRF approach Ozone Emission Sensitivity Modeling –Statewide 30% NOx and VOC emission reductions –Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km –Performed for 10 individual SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 model runs)
Georgia NOx vs. VOCs 4 11 23 2 3 6 6 Red numbers indicate number of days used in RRF calculations