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SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May.

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Presentation on theme: "SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May."— Presentation transcript:

1 SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May 23, 2012 – Atlanta, GA

2 2 SEMAP Project SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project Managed through SESARM Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV

3 3 Outline Emission Inventory Development WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ Future Year Projections for O 3, PM 2.5, RH Ozone Emission Sensitivities Regional Haze Periodic Reporting

4 4 Important Note SEMAP states do not have any moderate or serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS. Regional Haze periodic reports do not require photochemical modeling. Most likely, none of this modeling will be used in any SIPs.

5 5 Emission Inventory Emissions Inventory Contractors –AMEC/Alpine  Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions. –TranSystems  Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions. “Actual” Emission Inventory (2007) –Used for model performance evaluations “Typical” Emission Inventory ( ) –EGUs and fires –Used for model projections and RRF calculations Future Year Inventory – 2020 –Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MAR –Rerun NONROAD –Inventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY)

6 Point Source NOx

7 Point Source SO2

8 MOVES Emissions New tools had to be developed for QA Rate Per Distance Rate Per Profile Rate Per Vehicle

9 NOx from Wildfires

10 NOx from Ag, Open, Rx Burning

11 Non-Road and Area NOx

12 Non-Road and Area SO2

13 EGU Point SO2

14 14 Meteorological Modeling WRF Model Set-Up –36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US –35 Vertical Layers –Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation –Morrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2 (PBL) Modeling Centers –NC DENR and IA DNR Model Performance Evaluation –Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) –NC DENR and GA EPD

15 15 WRF Modeling Domain

16 Surface Layer

17 Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions (SMOKE) Emissions Inventory (NIF) MOVES Inputs

18 18 Emissions Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor –Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format) –Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVES –Created biogenic emissions (BEIS) –Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO Emissions Part 75 data replacement for CEMS –Details on next slide All 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.

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20 Air Quality Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor 2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.0 –36 and 12 km grids –Model Performance Evaluation –Diagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor) New CMAQv5.0 Model Options –Additional new crustal species  YES –In-line plume rise for point sources  YES –In-line lightning NOx  YES –In-line bi-directional NH3 flux  NO –In-line biogenic emissions  NO –In-line wind blown dust  NO

21 21 CMAQ Modeling Domain

22 SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain

23 Air Quality Modeling 2020 Annual Emisisons Modeling –SMOKE for most source sectors –MOVES: Ratio Approach using Inventory Mode 2020 Annual CMAQ Modeling –Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze –Follow EPA’s RRF approach Ozone Emission Sensitivity Modeling –Statewide 30% NOx and VOC emission reductions –Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km –Performed for 10 individual SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 model runs)

24 Georgia NOx vs. VOCs Red numbers indicate number of days used in RRF calculations

25 25 VOC/NOx Sensitivity Updates Previous Sensitivity ModelingPlanned Sensitivity Modeling CMAQv4.4CMAQv5.0 1-Month Summer Episode5-Month Ozone Season VISTAS 2009 OTW BaseDSEMAP 2020 SEMAP-wide VOC ReductionsState-wide VOC Reductions County/State NOx ReductionsState-wide NOx Reductions MOBILE6MOVES Absolute DifferenceRRF Approach >70 ppb Cutoff>60 ppb Cutoff

26 26 SEMAP Modeling Schedule

27 27 Regional Haze Obligations 5-year Periodic Reports –First reports due December 2012 (NC, SC) 2018 Regional Haze SIP Revisions –Due July 31, 2018 –Work must begin by mid-2014

28 28 SEMAP Regional Haze TSD Current Visibility Conditions –Examine IMPROVE Measurements Emission Inventory Changes –VISTAS 2002 (actual), 2007 SEMAP (actual), VISTAS 2009 (projected), and VISTAS 2018 (projected) –Update 2007 SEMAP with 2009, 2010, 2011 CEMS Status of Emission Controls in SIP –Federal and State Controls Assessment of Current SIP

29 Regional Haze at COHU

30 Regional Haze SO2 Emissions

31 Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA Contact Information


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