Presentation on theme: "SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 Spring Grants/Planning Meeting."— Presentation transcript:
1SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead Spring Grants/Planning Meeting May 23, 2012 – Atlanta, GA
2SEMAP ProjectSouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) ProjectManaged through SESARMSame group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIPAL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV
3Outline Emission Inventory Development WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ Future Year Projections for O3, PM2.5, RHOzone Emission SensitivitiesRegional Haze Periodic Reporting
4Important NoteSEMAP states do not have any moderate or serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS.Regional Haze periodic reports do not require photochemical modeling.Most likely, none of this modeling will be used in any SIPs.
5Emission Inventory Emissions Inventory Contractors AMEC/Alpine Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions.TranSystems Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions.“Actual” Emission Inventory (2007)Used for model performance evaluations“Typical” Emission Inventory ( )EGUs and firesUsed for model projections and RRF calculationsFuture Year Inventory – 2020Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MARRerun NONROADInventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY)Inventory mode ratio method for MOVES (proxy FY): SMOKE ready emissions by each state (could be more than one county); can be different ratio for different areas in a state; for GA four PM2.5 maintenance areas done (ATL, Macon, Floyd, Chattanooga) and additional run for the rest of state
14Meteorological Modeling WRF Model Set-Up36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US35 Vertical LayersFour-Dimensional Data AssimilationMorrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2 (PBL)Modeling CentersNC DENR and IA DNRModel Performance EvaluationAtmospheric and Environmental Research (AER)NC DENR and GA EPD
17Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF)Air Quality (CMAQ)Emissions (SMOKE)EmissionsInventory(NIF)MOVESInputs
18Emissions Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format)Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVESCreated biogenic emissions (BEIS)Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO EmissionsPart 75 data replacement for CEMSDetails on next slideAll 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.
191. Detect and correct atypical data 2. Gap filling for partial reporters
202007 Air Quality Modeling GT/UNC - SESARM contractor 2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.036 and 12 km gridsModel Performance EvaluationDiagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor)New CMAQv5.0 Model OptionsAdditional new crustal species YESIn-line plume rise for point sources YESIn-line lightning NOx YESIn-line bi-directional NH3 flux NOIn-line biogenic emissions NOIn-line wind blown dust NO
232020 Air Quality Modeling 2020 Annual Emisisons Modeling SMOKE for most source sectorsMOVES: Ratio Approach using Inventory Mode2020 Annual CMAQ ModelingProjections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional hazeFollow EPA’s RRF approachOzone Emission Sensitivity ModelingStatewide 30% NOx and VOC emission reductionsOzone season (5 months) at 12 kmPerformed for 10 individual SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 model runs)For all sensitivities, CAMx with DDM could be better.
24Georgia NOx vs. VOCsSurface NOx reductions were made in Atlanta, therefore small impacts on Augusta since wind was blowing from SC on the two RRF dats. Larger NOx impacts from SC on Augusta during those two RRF days. VVOC=Vistas VOCRed numbers indicate number of days used in RRF calculations
27Regional Haze Obligations 5-year Periodic ReportsFirst reports due December 2012 (NC, SC)2018 Regional Haze SIP RevisionsDue July 31, 2018Work must begin by mid-2014For all sensitivities, CAMx with DDM could be better.
28SEMAP Regional Haze TSD Current Visibility ConditionsExamine IMPROVE MeasurementsEmission Inventory ChangesVISTAS 2002 (actual), 2007 SEMAP (actual), VISTAS 2009 (projected), and VISTAS 2018 (projected)Update 2007 SEMAP with 2009, 2010, 2011 CEMSStatus of Emission Controls in SIPFederal and State ControlsAssessment of Current SIPFor all sensitivities, CAMx with DDM could be better.
29Regional Haze at COHUSurface NOx reductions were made in Atlanta, therefore small impacts on Augusta since wind was blowing from SC on the two RRF dats. Larger NOx impacts from SC on Augusta during those two RRF days. VVOC=Vistas VOC
30Regional Haze SO2 Emissions Surface NOx reductions were made in Atlanta, therefore small impacts on Augusta since wind was blowing from SC on the two RRF dats. Larger NOx impacts from SC on Augusta during those two RRF days. VVOC=Vistas VOC
31Contact InformationJim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA