1. CENRAP Modeling Workgroup Mational RPO Modeling Meeting May 25-26, Denver CO Calvin Ku Missouri DNR May 25, 2004

2. CENRAP Modeling Timeline Jul-Dec 2003 Jan & Jul 02 (99) MM5 & SMOKE Oct 2004 AQ Model selected & Dev. Model Protocol Aug-Dec 2004 Annual MM5/SMOKE 2002 NEI v. 2 basecase Emission Improvements Jan-Apr 2004 Model Evaluation/Select CMAQ & CAMx Jun-Aug 2005 2018 Project. basecase Control Strategy Inv. Jul-Sep 2005 2018 basevase & Emission Sensitivity Oct-Dec 2005 Regional Control Strategy Runs Jan-Jun 2006 Final Strategy & Recommendations Jan-Aug 2005 Model Performance. Evaluation PreliminaryBasecase Control Strategy Apr-Sep 2004 MM5 (v.3.6.3)/basB Emissions Sensitivity Diagnostic Analysis Air Quality Modeling July-Aug 2005 Emissions Sensitivity Diagnostic Analysis Meteorology & Emissions

3. Preliminary Modeling Goals Evaluate the performance of PM models for the CENRAP region –CMAQ vs CAMx Assess uncertainties, sensitivity simulations, and prioritize model improvement activities Integrate AER evaluations with UCR analysis Recommend a best model system for use in CENRAP’s Regional Haze plan

4. Preliminary Modeling Domain CMAQ and CAMx Jan & July 2002 episodes National RPO grid Lamber Conformal Conic @ center (-97, 40), Lat (33, 45) MM5 165x129x34 SMOKE 147x111x18 CAMx 101x95x18 CMAQ 101x95x16

5. Configuration of Models CMB-IV gas phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx RADM aqueous phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx Horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion Convective transport treated in CMAQ Dry deposition Wet deposition of gases and particles Particle size distribution Aerosol thermodynamics Aerosol dynamics

6. Problems found in phase 1 negative deposition velocity (mcip) @ 0 gmt due to VEGFRAC (mm5) newly released (2/16/04) MM5 v3.6.3 (mcip patch provided by Donna did not work) temp difference ranges -20 to +20 C difference in biogenic & mobile emissions

7. Ammonium Spatial Distribution MM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5 v3.5

8. PM 2.5 Sulfate Spatial Distribution MM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5 v3.5

9. Performance Evaluation Data Available for PM Model Routine Monitors IMPROVE: 24 hour PM 2.5 and component data, one in three days CASTNet: 7-day sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SO 2, and HNO 3 (may be problematic) AQS: hourly to daily PM 10, PM 2.5, PM 2.5 speciation, O 3, NO, NO 2, NO y, VOC, SO 2 Special Studies PM Supersites BRAVO

10. Some Observations from Preliminary Modeling Due to large geo, topo, and meterology variations in CENRAP region different approaches for improving model performance at different Class I areas may be required. Emissions sensitivity improves performance but maybe the wrong reason. Also, it may improve the performance at one region but not the other region. Zero BC for sulfate significantly improves the normalized bias by eliminating systematic overpredictions at low concentrations. The “other” PM25 component is consistently overpredicted –basB applies fugitive dust transport factors and significantly reduce the “other” PM25 Accurate predictions of sulfate and nitrate, and the associated ammonium is still key for CENRAP regional haze modeling –Sulfate: chemistry –Nitrate: chemistry, ammonia emissions, and thermodynamics

11. Next Steps Continue sensitivity runs for SOx, VOC (just finish NOx/NH3 sensitivities) and analyze CMAQ/CAMx results due to emissions reductions. Start diagnostic analysis as per proposal. Integrate UCR/Environ modeling analysis. Model selection based on model runs & diagnostic. Develop annual MM5 36km/12km for CENRAP Incorporate emission improvements in 2002 NEI Develop a RFP for basecase modeling

12. 2002 Basecase Development Domain & Met Modeling CMAQ or CAMx? Domain 1 (36km) - MM5 165x129x34 - AQM 147x111x18? Domain 2 (12km) - MM5 180x240x34? - AQM 162x222x18? MM5 Configuration - Moisture - Reisner II - Cumulus - Kain-Fritsch II - PBL - Pleim-Xiu - Radiation - RRTM - Soil Temp - Pleim-Xiu LSM

13. 2002 Basecase Development Emission Inventory A RFP for Compiling Emission Modeling Inventory 2002 NEI version 2 - mid July 04 work products from STI inc. ammonia, fire, prescribed burning, nonroad, mobile, etc. work products from other RPOs 2002 CEM data SMOKE format improved temporal, spatial, & speciation profiles. additional QA & missing data SMOKE (IDA) converter