1. P REDICTING EFFECTS ON W ATER P RODUCTIVITY AND THE W ATER B ALANCE DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR:

2. PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY WLI Achievements Good experiences using crop- water-productivity models Good progress on use of GIS for mapping alternative cropping patterns and scenarios Identification of a simple reporting method Socio-economists on board and ready Strong support network at USAID and USDA ARS

3. 6 DATA POINTS FOR USAID FTF201020152020 a Total Production by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (TP) Ton/yr b Total Value of Sales (USD) by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (VS) US$/yr c Total Quantity (volume) of Sales by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (QS) Ton/yr d Total Recurrent Cash Input Costs of direct beneficiaries during reporting period (IC) Weight/yr e Total Units of Production (UP) ha=/<Site area? 1Average price (VS/QS) 2Gross revenue (TPxVS/QS) 3Net revenue (TPxVS/QS) - IC Gross margin/ha (3/UP) 4Water use m3/ha Water m3/yr Water productivity (GM/m3) Gross margin per ha, per animal, per cage = [(TP x VS/QS) – IC ] / UP

4. PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY: Remaining Challenges Scale challenge Diversity of land and water conditions and qualities Diversity of cropping patterns Integrating crops and livestock Other uses of water Definition and measurement of water consumption (Economic aspects, prices, future uncertainties)

5. Water Productivity Gross margin Water consumed m 3

6. A SSESSMENTS OF W ATER B ALANCE WLI Achievements Characterization of benchmark sites Identification of relevant policies Sub-national assessments scarce and valuable Clear role for WLI teams in improvement of relevant policies Widely recognized need Use of relevant models incl. WEAP and SWAT Strong support network in US Universities

7. A SSESSMENTS OF W ATER B ALANCE Remaining Challenges Identification of system boundaries Scale challenges Temporal challenges for prediction of future water availability Uncertainty, variability Data access (real and perceived) Some water sources less well understood –i.e. groundwater, reusable wastewater Inter-sectoral cooperation Integration of WLI data elements

8. with impr. mgt Cropping Pattern Ha cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock: Annual Water Use m 3 / yr Gross Margin/m 3 $/ m 3 /yr Cropping Pattern Ha cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock: Annual Water Use m 3 /yr Gross Margin/m 3 $/ m3/yr Cropping Pattern Ha cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock: Annual Water Use m 3 /yr Gross Margin/m 3 $/ m3/yr Present w.out impr. mgt Water Balance reuse groundwater Surface inflows rainfed Future Management Strategies Benchmark Site

9. THANK YOU Contact: c.king@cgiar.org