Presentation on theme: "The Future of the CECA Rail Forum Infrastructure – the state of the market Alasdair Reisner Director of external affairs CECA."— Presentation transcript:
The Future of the CECA Rail Forum Infrastructure – the state of the market Alasdair Reisner Director of external affairs CECA
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Introducing CECA The Civil Engineering Contractors Association (CECA) is the trade body for companies delivering c£25 billion of maintenance and improvements to the UKs vital utility and transport networks each year Eight regions covering England, Wales and Scotland. Policy groups covering major sectors including roads, rail, water and energy Campaign to promote the benefits of infrastructure investment in the UK
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Infrastructure – the state of the market What does the infrastructure sector look like? What is happening in the sectors? Roads Rail Water Electricity What does the future look like?
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Infrastructure sector overview Industry broadly splits into five main areas.
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Historical infrastructure output Infrastructure did not experience same consistent boom as the rest of the construction sector in the decade prior to the global financial crisis Activity started to pick up from 2007 onwards. No single cause of increase Workloads collapsed in early 2012 Potential recovery on the cards? Source - ONS new construction output by sector (constant 2005)
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Roads 2008-2011 saw significant ramp up under fiscal stimulus programme Cliff-edge collapse with peak to trough change of 52 per cent Estimated jobs loss of c10,000 Hopes pinned to restructure of the ownership and management of the strategic roads network
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Rail Major investment post- Hatfield Activity falls back in CP3 (2004-2009) Major increase from 2008 onwards Now the single biggest sector within Infrastructure Forecasts suggest continuing high output levels in future years
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Water Major increase in activity in period from 2009 onwards, driven by rising water activity Concerns regarding cyclicality in sector, associated with five year regulatory periods Current efforts to drive greater efficiency by reducing cyclical impacts across the sector Awaiting details of next period consultation
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Electricity Figures include output relating to new generation, transmission and distribution projects Major increases in output at start of last two distribution price control periods Expect major upswing in activity to address concerns about meeting future demand as existing capacity nears end of life
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National What does the future look like? CECA Workload Trends survey of future orders Positive results indicate growth in orders on same period 12 months ago Regulated sectors showing positive figures Roads and preliminary works getting worse, but at a slower rate Rail Roads Electricity Water Preliminary works
Alasdair ReisnerCECA National Best case scenario? Immediate action to stimulate maintenance and minor works Clear policy framework releases significant investment in energy Roads Reform process reinvigorates highways investment Sustained growth in rail accompanied by go-ahead for HS2 Prolonged drought in activity Continuing uncertainty about energy strategy delays projects Political pressure limits roads investment Economic challenges restrict confidence of private sector to invest in development Worst case scenario?