Presentation on theme: "Investment Philosophy: Price/Intrinsic Value Intrinsic value is determined by the fundamentals that drive a securitys future cash flow Discrepancies between."— Presentation transcript:
Investment Philosophy: Price/Intrinsic Value Intrinsic value is determined by the fundamentals that drive a securitys future cash flow Discrepancies between market price and intrinsic value arise from market behavior and provide opportunities to outperform A truly integrated global approach that produces superior research Leading edge risk management and strong knowledge of clients which are critical for superior portfolio construction Teams of investment specialists working together to deliver consistent results Investor Behavior Creates Opportunities
Overview of Process Numbers in parentheses represent number of research analysts per area Risk Analysis Singer (11) Asset Allocation & Currency Singer (23) Global Portfolio Team Madsen, Bertocci, McQueen, Miller, Lytle, von Streng, Pickard Client Portfolio Global Equity Research Fry (86) Stock/sector recommendations Estimate where risk budget is spent Ensure portfolio incurs compensated risk Currency decisions Country recommendations Bottom-up Proprietary Research Is the Key Driver
Investment Goals & Risk Parameters Global Equity Objective: Outperform MSCI World Equity (Free) Index by 225 basis points per annum over market cycle Tracking Error: Normal range 3% - 5% Number of Equity Holdings: Approximately 125 to 175 Relative Exposures (Versus Benchmark) Typical Maximum Individual Stock Weights: ± 0.5 – 2% ± 5% Sector Weights: ± 5% ± 10% Regional Market Weights: ± 3 – 8% ± 25%
Investment Process & Global Research Global Equity Valuation System Sector Teams Manage sector portfolios Evaluate and communicate Bonus linked to results Centralized platform Ranks stocks by valuation Consistent world-wide Global perspective Uncommon research In-depth, long-term financial models (GEVS) 86 Global Equity Analysts Global Organization: The Driving Force Behind our Research
Global (Ex-US) Equity Portfolio: Strategy Summary June 30, 2003 1 Largest over (+)/under (-) weights relative to benchmark MSCI Index as of 6/30/03. Totals may not add due to rounding GLOBAL (EX-US) EQUITY PORTFOLIO Stock Specific 1 Sectors 1 Common Characteristics Region/ Country + Media +Pharmaceuticals + Paper & Forest Products +Commercial Services +Food, Beverage & Tobacco - Financials - Metals & Mining - Industrial Conglomerates - Machinery - Utilities + Gallaher Group (UK) +VNU (Netherlands) +Reed Elsevier (Netherlands) + Nestle (Switzerland) + Aventis (France) - HSBC (UK) - UBS (Switzerland) - HBOS (UK) - Siemens (Germany) - National Australia Bank (Australia) North America-2.6% Europe (Ex-UK)0.7 UK6.0 Japan-2.7 Asia (Ex-Japan)-0.5 Australia/ New Zealand-2.3 Temp Cash1.4 0.0% = Value + Size - Success = Variability in Markets Active Strategy
Global (Ex-US) Equity: Sector Strategy June 30, 2003 Source: UBS Global Asset Managemet Largest over (+)/under (-) weights relative to benchmark MSCI Index as of 6/30/03. Media - A mix of electronic and traditional media companies. Publishers are expanding distribution by using the Internet. Pharmaceuticals – Attractive valuations relative to other sectors with improving product pipelines in selected stocks after a period of R & D stagnation. Paper – European paper industry shows rising cash flow, a strong competitive position in the industry and excellent capital controls. Industrial Conglomerates – Acquisition led growth and opaque accounting are negatives for this sector. Metals & Mining – A weak pricing environment coupled with overcapacity in most metals makes the environment very difficult. Financials – Capital markets exposure, low commercial loan growth, and credit quality continue to be concerns for the sector.
Global (Ex-US) Equity: Current Views June 30, 2003 There were no major changes to our sector bets over the quarter. Pharmaceuticals, banks and media remained significant overweights. Consumer durables dropped out of the top overweights to be replaced by food, beverages and tobacco This addition to the food sector was driven at the stock level where we took an overweight position in Swiss food producer Nestle – the largest food company in the world. Nestle has superior sustainable growth to its competitors due to its exposure to faster growing divisions, such as Water. The group has a restructuring programme to focus on coordinating buying and selling on a global basis, which should lead to significant margin improvement. With interest cover of 16x there is also clear opportunity for share buybacks Country positions wer also largely unchanged. We did halve the underweight to Japan. This does not reflect a change of view on the market as a whole – we still fail to see any positive signs of economic restructuring. Our positions in Japan continue to be concentrated on the exporters, over the quarter we topped up Nintendo, Honda and Toyota into weakness Health care2.1 Consumer discretionary1.4 Energy0.7 IT0.6 Telecoms0.3 Materials0.1 Consumer Staples0.1 Utilities-0.9 Industrials -2.1 Financials -2.2 Sector positions 1 Positive (overweight)% Gallaher+1.76 VNU +1.66 Reed Elsevier +1.64 Nestle+1.63 Aventis+1.60 Stock positions 1 Negative (underweight)% Royal Dutch-1.57 HSBC -1.26 UBS -1.07 HBOS -0.79 Siemens -0.64 1 Global ex US Equity Model