Presentation on theme: "Inference when considering two populations"— Presentation transcript:
1 Inference when considering two populations Not completely in FPP but good stuff anyway
2 Inference two variables Here we focus on the following scenariosOne categorical variable (with two categories only) and one quantitative variableTwo boxes one contains tickets with 0’s and 1’s the other tickets with numbersTwo categorical variables (each with two categories only)Two boxes each with tickets with 0’s and 1’s.
3 Inference two variables Confidence intervals forDifference between two meansMatched pairsTwo independent samplesDifference between two proportions/percentsHypothesis tests forMatched pairs twoindependent samples
4 Inference for the difference of two parameters Often we are interested in comparing the population average or the population proportion/percentage for two groupsWe can do these types of comparisons using CI’s and hypothesis testsGeneral ideas and equations don’t changeCI: estimate ± multiplier*SETest statistics: (observed– expected)/SE
5 Inference for difference of two population means μ1 – μ2 Two possibilities in collecting data on two variables hereDesign 1: Units are matched in pairsUse “matched pairs inference”Design 2: units not matched in pairsUse “two sample inferences”
6 Typical study designs Matched pairs Two samples A) two treatments given to each unitB) units paired before treatments are assigned, then treatments are assigned randomly within pairsTwo samplesA) some units assigned to get only treatment a, and other units assigned to get only treatment b. Assignment is completely at randomB) Units in two different groups compared on some survey variable
7 Matched pairs vs two samples Data collected in two independent samples:No matching, so creating values of some “difference” is meaninglessA “matched pairs” analysis is mathematically wrong and gives incorrect CI’s and p-valuesData collected in matched pairs:Matching, when effective, reduces the SE.A two sample analysis artificially inflates the SE, resulting in excessively wide CI’s and unreliable p-valuesAn example towards the end of these slides will demonstrate this
8 Inference in μ1 – μ2: matched pairs General idea with matched pairs design is to compute the difference for pair of observations and treat the differences as the single variableMeasure y1 and y2 on each unit. Then for each unit computed = y1 – y2Then find a confidence interval for the differencedifference estimate ± multiplier*SEaverage of differences ± t-table value * SD of differences/√n
9 Inference in μ1 – μ2: matched pairs Do people perform better on tests when smelling flowers versus smelling nothing?Hirsch and Johnston (1996) asked 21 subjects to work a maze while wearing a mask. The mask was either unscented or carried a floral scent. Each subject worked both mazes. The order of the mask was randomized to ensure fair comparison to the two treatments. The response is the difference in completion times for the unscented and scented masks.Example: Person 1 completed the maze in seconds while wearing the unscented mask, and in seconds while wearing the scented mask.So, this person’s data value is –7.37 (30.60 – 37.97).
10 JMP output for odor example The differences appear to follow the normal curve. There are no outliersSample average difference is 0.96, suggesting people do better with scented mask
12 Conclusions from odors example The 95% CI ranges from to 6.67, which is too wide a range to determine whether floral odors help or hurt performance for these mazes. In other words, the data suggest that any effect of scented masks is small enough that we cannot estimate it with reasonable accuracy using these 21 subjects. We should collect more data to estimate the effect of the odor more precisely.We also note that this study was very specific. The results may not be easily generalized to other populations, other tests, or other treatments.
13 Inference in μ1 – μ2: two samples Pygmalion studyResearchers gave IQ test to elementary school kids.They randomly picked six kids and told teachers the test predicts these kids have high potential for accelerated growth.They randomly picked different six kids and told teachers the test predicts these kids have no potential for growth.At end of school year, they gave IQ test again to all students.They recorded the change in IQ scores of each student.Let’s see what they found…
14 EDA for pygmalion study It looks like being labeled “accelerated” leads to larger improvements than being labeled “no growth”Let’s make a 99% CI to confirm this
15 Sample means and SD’sLevel Number Mean SD SE accelerated none Sample difference is The SE of this difference:
16 Pygmalion confidence interval 99% CI for difference in mean scores (accel – none):Estimate ± mulitplier*SEEstimate is mean1 – mean2Multiplier comes from the t-table (we will talk about df in a sec.)SE of difference from the previous slide
17 Conclusions from the pygmalion study The 99% CI ranges from to , which is always positive. The data provide evidence that students labeled “accelerated” have higher avg. improvements in IQ than students labeled “no growth.” We are 99% confidence the difference in averages is between 1.3 and 16.7 IQ points.
18 Degrees of FreedomUse the Welch-Satterhwaite degrees of freedom formulaThis is typically what a computer will give youFor this class we will use two simpler alternativesA Conservative approach uses the smaller of n1-1 and n2-1A more common approach uses n1+ n2 – 2We will use the later in this classNotice that 3.17 from slide 17 is the multiplier for a 99% confidence interval coming from a t-distribution with – 2 = 10 d.f.
19 Inference for P1 – P2Lets just jump right into an example
20 CI for P1 – P2 Estimate ± multiplier*SE Multiplier comes from the z-tableEverything else we know about confidence intervals is the sameInterpretationWhat does 95% confidence mean
22 Hypothesis tests for difference of two parameters The main ideas of hypothesis tests remain the same1) specify hypothesis2) compute test statistic (observed – expected)/SE3) calculate p-value4) make conclusions
23 Inference in μ1 – μ2: matched pairs Do people perform better on tests when smelling flowers versus smelling nothing?Hirsch and Johnston (1996) asked 21 subjects to work a maze while wearing a mask. The mask was either unscented or carried a floral scent. Each subject worked both mazes. The order of the mask was randomized to ensure fair comparison to the two treatments. The response is the difference in completion times for the unscented and scented masks.Example: Person 1 completed the maze in seconds while wearing the unscented mask, and in seconds while wearing the scented mask So, this person’s data value is –7.37 (30.60 – 37.97).
24 JMP output for odor example The differences appear to follow the normal curve. There are no outliers.The sample average difference is 0.96, suggesting people do better with the scented mask
25 Hypothesis test for μ1 – μ2: matched pairs Claim: smelling flowers helps you complete maze fasterHo: μf = μh vs. Ha:μf < μhHo: μf - μh = 0 vs. Ha:μf - μh < 0Ho: d = 0 vs. Ha: d < 0Test statistic
26 Conclusions about odor Using a t-distribution with 20 (21 – 1) degrees of freedom, the p-value is Pr(T<-0.349) = Assuming there is no difference in average scores when wearing either mask, there is a 36.52% chance of getting a sample mean difference of seconds favoring the scented mask. This is a non-trivial chance. Therefore, we do not have enough evidence to conclude that wearing a scented mask improves performance on the maze.
28 Inference in μ1 – μ2: Two independent samples Pygmalion study revisited (starts on slide 14)Step1 Ho: μa = μn vs. Ha:μa > μnStep2Step3 find the p-value. We use the t-table with how many degrees of freedom? Use 10 as in the CIp-value between smaller than 0.01We will reject Ho.Strong evidence in data to conclude that those labeled “accelerated” have larger IQ scores than those being labeled “no growth”
29 Matched pairs analysis MPG for 10 cars collected after similar drives using each of two different types of gas additivMatched pairs analysisVariable N mean SD SEdiff(a – b)95% CI for mean difference (-1.256, )P-value = 0.002Two sample analysisVariable N Mean SD SEMpg aMpg b95% CI for difference (-14.14, 12.50)P-value = 0.898
30 Conclusions from previous example Right analysis (matched pairs) has narrow CI and tiny p-value. We are able to see that additive b yields more miles per gallon.Wrong analysis (two independent samples has a very wide CI and a large p-value. Using this analysis we’d incorrectly conclude additives a and b are equally effectiveHere’s whyVariation in mpg across cars is much higher than variation in mpg within cars. By matching we eliminate this across-car variation. The two-independent samples analysis ignores elimination of across-car varianceMoral of the story: Use anlaysis that corresponds to how data are collected
31 Matched pairs cont. Why not always use matched pairs? Matching increases the possibility of imbalance in background variables. Matching on irrelevant variables can make inferences less precise because of imbalance in causally-relevant background variables.Guidance for using matched pairs?Match on variables that have substantial effect on response. This can make inferences more precise.
32 Hypothesis test for p1 – p2 Herson (1971) examined whether men or women are more likely to suffer from nightmares. He asked a random sample of 160 men and 192 women whether they experienced nightmares “often” (at least once a month) or “seldom” less than once a monthIn the sample 55 men (34.4%) and 60 women(31.3%) said they suffered nightmares often. Is this 3.1% difference sufficient evidence of a sex-related difference in nightmare suffering?
33 Hypothesis test for p1 – p2 Step 1: Claim is mean and women suffer at different ratiesHo: p1 = p2 vs Ha p1 ≠ p2 the same asHo: p1 – p2 = 0 vs Ha p1 – p2 ≠ 0Step2: Compute test statistic
34 Hypothesis test for p1 – p2 Step 2 continuedNotice that the test statistic is simply the # of SE’s the sample difference in proportions is from 0 (the hypothesized difference).Step3: Compute the p-valueSince we are dealing with a two-sided alternative we want the area under the normal curve to left of and to the right 0f 0.62P-value ≈ 0.55
36 Hypothesis test for p1 – p2 Step 4 make a conclusionThis is a large p-value. We do not reject the null hypothesis. The data do no provide sufficient evidence to concluce that the proportion of men that have nightmares is different from that of women.As a reminder how do we interpret the value 0.55Assuming the null hypothesis is true (i.e. men and women are equally likely to have nightmares), there is a 55% chance of getting a sample difference of 3.1% or more (in either direction)
37 Determining a sample size We will use a method that is sometimes called the “margin of error method”Suppose we want a 95% CI for the percentage of people who show symptoms of clinical despressionFurther more we want the CI to be fairly precise: we want a margin of error of 1%Therefore we want
38 Determining sample size Using we can solve for nNow you just plug in your best guess for P and you have the sample size required for a 1% margin of errorEx: say that P=0.3If this sample size is too expensive either decrease level of confidence or desired maring of error
39 Determine sample size for differences in % and average Same logic appliesWrite down the expression for SEDecide on a margin of errorSolve for sample sizeGuess P1 and P2 for differences in two percentages and SD1 and SD2 for differences in meansSet n1 = n2 (same sample size for each group)
40 Determining sample size The same ideas apply with you desire a CI of a meanSuppose that we want to estimate the average weight of men in the U.S.Further suppose that we want a margin of error to be 8 poundsWe need to guess at the SD for weight. Let’s guess it to be around 20 pundsThen solving for n we getRound up and take a sample of 25
41 Determining sample sizes for differences in % and avg. Same logic applies:Write down expression of SEDecide on a desired margin of errorSolve for sample sizeGuess p1 and p2 for difference in two percentages.Guess SD1 and SD2 for differences in two means.Set n1 = n2 . Sample size in each group is n1