Resource sustainability How do we predict long-term demand? ◦ Use approximate upper limit on integrated demand - U.S.A., Europe, Japan ◦ Assuming a world population of 9 billion by 2050 ◦ Assume these 9 billion people use the same amount per capita as our current richer neighbours ◦ Establish an approximate total requirement
Resource sustainability Does the predicted requirement match the resource availability?
Copper: A sustainable resource? Geographical availability?? ◦ Widely distributed Recycling ?? ◦ Very efficiently recycled ◦ Recycled content 20-30 % ◦ EoL recycling rate of 40-50% ◦ This generates large portions of the demand Projected demand is equal to the estimated resource available ◦ Satisfactory sustainable resource!!!
Tungsten: A sustainable resource? Geographical distribution? ◦ China- 70% ◦ Could someday raise geopolitical issues Recycling? ◦ Recycled content 35% ◦ EoL recycling rate 10-25% Demand Projections? ◦ Long depletion time making it efficient for a predicted 100-120 years Sustainability uncertain due to geographical availability
Indium: A sustainable resource? Geographical distribution? ◦ Very uncertain because its a by product of zinc ◦ Largest zinc stocks in Austrailia, China & U.S. Recycling? ◦ Recycled content 25-50% ◦ EoL recycling rate <1% Projected demand ◦ Problematic to determine if the future demand meets the supply ◦ Its rapid increase in demand in the past decade has already brought about disruptions in supply Sustainability relies on future mining of zinc ores, creating huge uncertainty with this
Conclusions Copper resources appear adequate and widely available Tungsten supplies appear adequate ◦ Global supplies could come under pressure as most supplies are in China Indium is in growing demand ◦ Worryingly its existence depends on uncertainty in the ability for supply to meet demand
Final conclusion More information is needed Pay more attention to long-term availability of materials!!!