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The Future of Metals Thomas E. Graedel Yale University Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies.

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Presentation on theme: "The Future of Metals Thomas E. Graedel Yale University Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Future of Metals Thomas E. Graedel Yale University Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

2 History of Metals Production ?? Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining...

3 Trends in Ore Grades … Mudd, 2009, Sustainability of Mining...

4 The Host-Companion Flower Garden of Metals © Yale University, 2009, after Meskers and Hagelüken

5 11 Elements +4 Elements Computer Chip Elemental Contents +45 Elements (Potential) (Potential) Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006

6 The Yale Criticality Project Funding: US National Science Foundation and several corporations and organizations

7 High Low Low High Supply Risk Impact of Supply Restriction The NRC Criticality Matrix and the Region of Danger Region of Danger

8 Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Goal 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is critical

9 100 - EPI 100- τ D - τ D 10 0 Components World Governance Indicator Global Deposit Concentration Expanded Time to Depletion Human Development Index Supply Risk Weight PPI Policy Potential Index ½ ½ Weight Social & Regulatory Considerations Geological, Technological, Economic Considerations Geopolitical Considerations 100-WGI ½½½ Norm. Supply Risk Percentage as Companion % ½ HHI National and Corporate

10 Politically unstable nations pose a higher risk of supply restriction I.Underlying vulnerability 1.Inequality 2.State history 3.Corruption 4.Ethnic fragmentation 5.Trust in institutions 6.Status of minorities 7.History of political instability 8.Proclivity to labor unrest 9.Level of social provision 10.A countrys neighborhood 11.Regime type 12.Regime type and factionalism II.Economic distress 1.Growth in incomes 2.Unemployment 3.Level of income per head Economic Intelligence Unit : Political Instability Index (PII) Components Transformed Score Scale 2009/10 Political Instability Index

11 Vulnerability- Corporate Level Ability to Innovate Impact of Supply Restriction Weight 1 Substitutability Importance Ability to Innovate % of impacted revenue Ability to Pass-through Costs Importance to Corporate Strategy Substitute Performance ¼ Substitute Availability ¼ Environmental Impact Ratio ¼ Price Ratio ¼ Components

12 The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept EI

13 Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is critical Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals (example – copper group [Cu, As, Ag, Au, Se, Te])

14 Random Results in Criticality Assessment ECIDAIWNEDONRCOakd. Hollins South Korea Cu No Maybe--No -- As -- No-- Se -- YesNo--No Ag No Maybe-- No-- Te No --No--YesNo Au -- Maybe-- No--

15 Copper Group Criticality (Global)

16 Copper Group Criticality for Solar Power, Inc. (Fictional)

17 Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is critical Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals Year 3: Create a family of scenarios to study the possible evolution of metal criticality

18 2008 EI ISR SR

19 Summary The long-run availability of the metals of modern technology is uncertain, and not well-studied Existing attempts to rank the criticality of metals use diverse approaches, and reach diverse conclusions The Yale project, aimed at generating detailed, defendable evaluations, will begin publishing results in early in 2012

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21 Substitution in Optoelectronics © C. Meskers, Umicore

22 The European Union Critical Raw Materials Project April, 2009 – April, 2010

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24 RE PGM Ge Nb W

25 End-of-life recycling rates for sixty-two metals <1%1-10%>10-25%>25-50%>50% T. Graedel et al., J. Industrial Ecology, in press, 2011

26 Key Questions to be Answered What components should be included? How can the inclusion of these components be justified? How can these components be evaluated? How should the component evaluations be aggregated?


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