5Computer Chip Elemental Contents 11 Elements+4 Elements+45 Elements(Potential)Modern computer chips make use of more than half the periodic table. This suggests that there may be some situations where supply limitations could occur because suitable substitutes are not available.Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006
6The Yale Criticality Project Funding: US National Science Foundation and several corporations and organizationsIn 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.
7The NRC Criticality Matrix and the “Region of Danger” HighRegionofDangerImpact of Supply RestrictionA product designer or long-term purchaser should try to avoid materials that have both high supply risk and for which the impact of supply restriction would be high. The committee referred to this region as the “region of danger”.LowLow HighSupply Risk
8Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Goal 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”
9Supply Risk Components Supply Risk National and Corporate - τD100 Geological, Technological, Economic Considerations⅓Expanded Time to DepletionPercentageas Companion%Social & Regulatory Considerations⅓PolicyPotential Index100 - PPIHuman Development Index100 - EPIGeopolitical Considerations⅓World Governance Indicator100-WGIGlobal Deposit ConcentrationHHIWeightWeightNorm.
10Politically unstable nations pose a higher risk of supply restriction Economic Intelligence Unit : Political Instability Index (PII)2009/10 Political Instability IndexComponentsUnderlying vulnerabilityInequalityState historyCorruptionEthnic fragmentationTrust in institutionsStatus of minoritiesHistory of political instabilityProclivity to labor unrestLevel of social provisionA country’s neighborhoodRegime typeRegime type and factionalism204050306080901007010Transformed Score ScaleSource: The Economist. “Political Instability Index: Vulnerability to social and political unrest.”This index (or its components) can be utilized for our purposeUnderlying vulnerability0 if lower than 401. Inequality Measured by Gini coefficient1 if 40-502. State history Measured according to date of independenceSources: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008; Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.2 if higher than 500 if before 1900Source: CIA, Factbook.2 if after 19501 if between 1900 and 19500 for low3. Corruption Economist Intelligence Unit ratingsSource: Economist Intelligence Unit.2 for high1 for moderate4. Ethnic fragmentation Ethnic fractionalization index (0 to 100 scale)1if 30 to 500 if lower than 300 if more than 50%5. Trust in institutions Percentage of population that trusts/has confidence in parliamentSource: Alesina Alberto et al, "Fractionalization", NBER Working Paper 9411, 2003.Sources: The Euro, Latino, Africa and Asia Barometer polls; World Values Survey.2 if less than 30%%6. Status of minorities High rates of economic or political discrimination against minorities. Based on latest available assessment & scoring on 0 (no discrimination) to 4 (extreme discrimination) scale by Minorities at Risk Project (MRP). The MRP defines extreme discrimination (score of 4) if any minority group is subject to public policies that constitute formal exclusion and/or recurring repression, and that substantially restrict the groups' economic opportunities or political participation. There is significant discrimination (score of 3) if minority group suffers from significant poverty and under-representation owing to prevailing social practices by dominant group.2 if extreme discrimination (if score of 4 for any minority by MRP)1 if significant discrimination (if score of 3 by for any minority by MRP)0 if low or no discrimination (MRP scores lower than 3)0 if no recorded episode7. History of political instability Significant episodes or events of political instability (regime change) as recorded by Political Instability Task Force (PITF)Source: PITF database.2 if two or more episodes1 if one major episode8. Proclivity to labor unrest Risk of labor unrest2 if high1 if moderate0 if lowSource: Economist Intelligence Unit, Risk Briefing.1 if ratio between actual and predicted infant mortality rate is greater than 1.1 but less than 1.50 if the actual infant mortality rate is lower than predicted, or if the actual rate does not exceed the predicted rate by a significant margin9. Level of social provision Measured on the basis of the "expected" infant mortality rate; based on residuals from a regression of the natural logarithm of the infant mortality rate on the logarithm of GPP per head US$ at purchasing power parity (PPP) for 2006.2 if ratio between actual and predicted infant mortality rate is greater than 1.50 if index is less than 5.810. A country's neighborhood Based on the average vulnerability index (calculated on the basis of all indicators except the neighborhood indicator) for all of the country's geographic neighbors.Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008.2 if index is higher than 6.31 if index is 5.8 to 6.32 if either a non-consolidated, "flawed" democracy or a hybrid regime (neither a democracy nor an autocracy)0 if either a full democracy or authoritarian regime11. Regime type Based on classification of political regimes, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy12.Regime type and factionalism The interaction of regime type with the existence of political factionalism (according to Polity IV database). According to Polity, factionalism is defined as polities with parochial (possibly, but not necessarily, ethnic-based) political factions that regularly compete for political influence to promote particularist agendas and favor heavily group members to the detriment of a common agenda.4 if a country is both an intermediate regime and suffers from factionalismII. Economic distress0 if notGrowth in incomes Growth in real GDP per head in if forecast growth in real GDP per head is positive, with minimal risks that it could be negative2 if a forecast decline in GDP per head is greater than by 4% or there is a significant risk that this could occur1 if a fall in GDP per head is forecast or there is a significant risk of that occurring, but the decline is less than by 4%0 if forecast unemployment rate is less than 6% and there are only minimal risks that it could be higher than 6%2. Unemployment rate, %.1 if a forecast unemployment rate is higher than 6% or there is a significant risk of that occurring, but the rate does not surpass 10%2 if a forecast unemployment rate is higher than 10% or there is a significant risk that this could occur0 if more than US$12,0003. Level of income per head Measured by GDP per head at PPP, US$ in 2007, on the assumption that richer countries can more easily withstand economic distressSources: Economist Intelligence Unit; International Labour Organisation.2 if less than US$3,0001 if between US$3,000 and US$12,000II. Economic distressGrowth in incomesUnemploymentLevel of income per head
11Vulnerability- Corporate Level Ability to InnovateImpact of Supply RestrictionWeight1Substitutability⅓Importance% of impacted revenueAbility to Pass-through CostsImportance to Corporate StrategySubstitute PerformanceSubstitute AvailabilityEnvironmental Impact RatioPrice RatioComponents
12The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept EI
13Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals (example – copper group [Cu, As, Ag, Au, Se, Te])
14Random Results in Criticality Assessment ECIDAIWNEDONRCOakd. HollinsSouthKoreaCuNoMaybe--AsSeYesAgTeAu
16Copper Group Criticality for Solar Power, Inc. (Fictional)
17Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metalsYear 3: Create a family of scenarios to study the possible evolution of metal criticality
19SummaryThe long-run availability of the metals of modern technology is uncertain, and not well-studiedExisting attempts to rank the criticality of metals use diverse approaches, and reach diverse conclusionsThe Yale project, aimed at generating detailed, defendable evaluations, will begin publishing results in early in 2012
25End-of-life recycling rates for sixty-two metals <1%1-10%>10-25%>25-50%>50%T. Graedel et al., J. Industrial Ecology, in press, 2011
26Key Questions to be Answered What components should be included?How can the inclusion of these components be justified?How can these components be evaluated?How should the component evaluations be aggregated?