1. What Works? Targeting, Testing & Tracking (Triple-T) AMIMB, Glazier’s Hall 29 October 2013 Lawrence W. Sherman Institute of Criminology Cambridge University

2. Forecasting Storms 1987 –Big False Negative 2013—Big True Positive Week in advance Protective actions taken Huge reduction in harm Same in Eastern India 2013 Who was the hero?

3. Who Was Vice-Admiral Robert Fitzroy?

4. 1819: Weather Was All Words Fitzroy changed the business model ADDED numbers into it Sharpened the words with scales, % Improved accuracy over “experience” Transformed qualitative forecasts Into quantitatively-supported statements Now we call them “algorithms” See things coming much sooner

5. Meteorological Office of the Board of Trade 1854 Job: Publish Weather Data Not Predict It Fitzroy invented term “forecasting” Controversial idea Not 100% accurate Royal Society Attacked It Budget Cut; forecasts stopped Fitzroy committed suicide

6. Prevention Finally Won Falling Barometer  Gale Warnings Fishing ships told to stay in port Owners objected; Practice discontinued Deaths from gales; Prevention revived

7. What’s YOUR Job? Measuring Harm? Preventing Harm? Reducing Harm? Correcting Harm? Redressing Wrongs? What is your business model? Nor for making money. Just for doing the job.

8. Words--not many Numbers Every prison is different Every human life is important All rights must be protected BUT.... Which prisons are worst? Which are about to explode in violence? Which will have the most suicides? How can algorithms help prevent harm?

9. AMIMB Website Einstein Quote Using same method Expect different result? Is there a new method IMBs could use? Are there other business models? Could they get better results? Could they ADD numbers to add VALUE?

10. Evidence-Based Practice 1. An Idea: “...Practices should be based on scientific evidence about what works best.” (Sherman, 1998) 2. An Analytic Framework “A standard for all....strategies: using scientific evidence to target, test and track...[all] practices” (Sherman, 2013)

11. Words AND Numbers AMIMB Practical Guide Has Many Words Many numbers requested Not clear how they are to be gathered Whether comparisons could be reliable What is the logic model by which EACH IMB REPORT CAN REDUCE HARM?

12. Same Problem for HM Inspectors Police since 1856 Prisons? Probation? “Efficiency and Effectiveness” Case by case Word by word HMI Police developed a “report card” But measures were not scientific Not “risk-adjusted”

13. Daniel Kahneman

14. QUICK! What emotion does this person feel?

15. QUICK! How Much is This Product? 17 X 24 = ???

16. Thinking, Fast and….Slower Reading the face—fast! Multiplying two numbers—slow (408) Why is that important to monitoring? It adds theory about how we think, decide, act

17. Two Cognitive Systems: Overlapping System I FAST Intuitive Automatic Effortless Associative Rapid Opaque Process Skilled System II SLOW Reflective Controlled Effortful Deductive Slow Self-Aware Rule-Following

18. Good News, Bad News Good News: Most decisions are made with System I System I conserves energy, time Most System I decisions are right--driving Bad News: Many important decisions are “wrong” Many could be “right” if we used System II We resist System II because it is “costly,” tiring

19. Slow Thinking About Strategy Targeting Aiming for biggest impact Tracking Measuring BOTH policing and crime Testing Deciding what works

20. Targeting---PREDICT Focus Issues, situations, processes Units, managers, problem leaders Classify Concentrations Causes Prioritize Greatest impact Best chance of success

21. Clinical vs. Statistical: Kahneman Chapter 21 Began Career with Paul Meehl (1954) 200 Replications Since Then Formulas always beat (60%) or equal (40%) human judgment—latter is far more costly Crime, parole, air pilot errors, credit risk Wine value forecasts Cot Death risk Paul Meehl

22. 3 ways of Predicting Qualitative 1. Clinical (System 1~2?; not transparent) Statistical: 2. checklist with validation 3. supercomputer data mining

23. High Risk (2%) Neither High nor Low Risk (38%) Low Risk (60%)

24. High Risk 2% vs. Bottom 60% Two Years From Forecast Date Charges for Any Offence8 X more Charges Serious Offence10 X more Charges Murder or Attempt75 X more

25. Testing Comparing two methods Same kind of problems THEN,.... ASKING: Which one works better? Which one costs less? Which one gets best result for same cost?

26. Testing Defined A Fair Comparison Between two different methods E = Experimental Method (new) C= Control Method (current) All else equal Which one is better? By what criteria?

27. What Kind of Evidence? Not This Kind But This Kind

28. But what is good evidence? What constitutes a good test? Many bad tests More intuitive than quantitative “Illusion of Validity”

29. Restorative Justice Experiment: Did Program Cause Crime Drop?

30. Inferring Cause From Trend? Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc? After this, then because of this?

31. Or would it have dropped anyway? “Natural” Trend “History” Other factors “Spurious” explanations That can be eliminated—give confidence All ruled out by randomized controlled trials (RCTs)

32. Randomized Controlled Trial RCT: COMPARISON or NET difference

33. CONTROL Group A sample that measures what would happen at the same time and place without the intervention being introduced to an otherwise identical EXPERIMENTAL Group

34. AFP/ACT ANU Experiment: Did Program Cause Crime Drop?

35. Inferring Cause From Trend? Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc? After this, then because of this?

36. Or would it have dropped anyway? “Natural” Trend “History” Other factors “Spurious” explanations That can be eliminated—give confidence All ruled out by randomized controlled trials (RCTs)

37. Randomized Controlled Trial RCT: COMPARISON or NET difference

38. CONTROL Group A sample that measures what would happen at the same time and place without the intervention being introduced to an otherwise identical EXPERIMENTAL Group

39. Tracking Crime WhereWhen Policing Patrol, POP Arrests Match? RatiosTrends

40. Tracking in Politics Obama’s “Cave” Tracking volunteer activity—500 offices Contacting voters Determining who supports Obama Determining when & how they will vote Arranging transport to the polls Scheduling election day drivers “Ground Game” cost $100 Million

41. 3. Tracking in Prisons Liebling’s Quality of Prison Life Measures What are the trends in --inputs (resources) --outputs (activities) --outcomes (results)

42. AMIMB-NOMS COMPSTAT?

43. Tracking With Evidence Discuss Criticize Problem-Solve Use and misuse of data Refinement through trial and error Technology making change easier

44. Sherman: 1998

46. The Rise of Evidence? More Evidence is Available More Evidence is Demanded Budget cutbacks make evidence relevant But there are only early adopters A tipping point may some soon The pace is quickening

47. How Can IMBs Be Evidence-Based? 1.Quantify current reports 2.Design new—fewer—measures 3.Test different models of IMB work

48. What Works? Targeting, Testing & Tracking (Triple-T) THANK YOU Lawrence W. Sherman Institute of Criminology Cambridge University