3 The BossNature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)
4 The role for agricultural development in food security ContentThe context: global challengesThe role for agricultural development in food securityAgriculture for Impact
5 Energy Food Water The Perfect Storm? Increasing population Increased demand50% by 2030 (IEA)EnergyIncreasing populationIncreasing levels of urbanisationThe rightful goal to alleviate povertyClimate ChangeFoodIncreased demand50% by 2030(FAO)WaterIncreased demand30% by 2030(IFPRI)PopulationOver 9 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division)6 million a month (John Beddington, DFID, 12th Nov 2009)Urbanisationthe world’s urban population has exceeded the rural populationFAO launched urban agriculture campaignAlleviating povertyIn Sub-Saharan Africa only Ghana is on track to meet the MDG to halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hungerEnergy: increased demand of 50% by 2030 (IEA) – biofuels, rising oil and fertiliser pricesFood: increased demand of 50% by 2030 (FAO)Water: increased demand of 30% by 2030 (IFPRI)Climate changeMajor key issue is uncertainties about climate change and how to manage themJohn Beddington, Chief Scientist, Government Office for Science, speaking at DFID, 12th November 2009
6 Gordon Conway’s English cottage loaf Behind the acute crisis lies chronic crises.As well as the Perfect Storm issues you can also include:Land scarcity / land acquisitionRising incomes + changing consumption patterns
7 Food price volatilityFood prices ‘will remain high and volatile’ say IFPRI b/c of rising demand
8 Food price volatilityArguably the food price spikes of 2007/08 and then in 2010, finally got political leaders to focus on a global food security agenda
9 1.02 billion people are hungry 1 in 6 of the world’s population A global food crisis1.02 billion people are hungry1 in 6 of the world’s population(FAO, 2009)
10 Hunger is on the riseFAO (2009) State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009, FAO, Rome.Undernourishment exists when caloric intake is below the minimum dietary energy requirement(MDER). The MDER is the amount of energy needed for light activity and a minimum acceptable weight forattained height, and it varies by country and from year to year depending on the gender and age structure ofthe population.
11 Increased impact on developing countries FAO (2009) State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009, FAO, Rome.
12 World Food Programme hunger map WFP 2011Dark red is most acute
13 Over 265 million people are undernourished (26% of global total) Sub-Saharan AfricaOver 265 million people are undernourished (26% of global total)Home to 15 of the 16 countries where the prevalence of hunger exceeds 35%FAO 2009FAO is revising the was it measures these numbers and we should get new data in 2012 or 2013
14 Food security underpins global security Economic time bomb Why does it matter?Food security underpins global securityEconomic time bombHumanitarian imperativePls, we need to make sure that agriculture working to full effect globally as we are going to need all options on the table to feed the world.
15 Food security underpins global security Picture is of Haiti in 2008Food prices were ‘one of the factors that caused the Arab Spring’Informative VOA report here:The Guardian, 9 April 2008: Kena Betancur/EPA
16 Economic time bombLong term effects on health, physical and cognitive development.Long term economic time bomb for all
17 Humanitarian imperative 13 million people affected by Horn of Africa crisis, with famine declared in Somalia in 2011
18 Food Security (World Food Summit, 1996) “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.(World Food Summit, 1996)
19 EntitlementsStarvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the of there being not enough food to eatAmartya Sen,1982The entitlement approach to starvation and famines concentrates onthe ability of people to command food through the legal means available in the society, including the use of production possibilities, trade opportunities, entitlements vis-à-vis the state, and other methods of acquiring food.A person starves either because he does not have the ability to command enough food, or because he does not use this ability to avoid starvation. The entitlement approach concentrates on the former, ignoring the latter possibility.Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivationtrade-based entitlement: one is entitled to own what one obtains by trading something one owns with a willing party (or, multilaterally, with a willing set of parties); 2. production-based entitlement: one is entitled to own what one gets by arranging production using one's owned resources, or resources hired from willing parties meeting the agreed conditions of trade; 3. own-labour entitlement: one is entitled to one's own labour power, and thus to the trade-based and production-based entitlements related to one's labour power; 4. inheritance and transfer entitlement: one is entitled to own what is willingly given to one by another who legitimately owns it, possibly to take affect after the latter's death (if so specified by him).
21 GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2-4 times more than GDP growth from non-agricultureWDR, page 6 – 42 countriesAgricultural growth has special powers in reducing poverty across all country types. Cross-country estimates show that GDP growth originating in agriculture is twice as effective in reducing poverty as GDP growth originating outside agriculture.Rapid ag growth …In India – driven by technological innovationsIn China – driven by institutional innovations such as household responsibility system and market liberalisation… led to major declines in rural povertyDecile: Noun. (statistics) any of nine points that divided a distribution of ranked scores into equal intervals where each interval contains one-tenth of the scoresAlso: The potential poverty-reducing impact of agriculture-related growth is three times larger than growth originating from other sectors of the economy.Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet, World Bank Research Observer vol. 25, no.1 (2010), Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction: Additional Evidence, available at
22 Lack of investment in agriculture 17% of ODA30% of World Bank lendingMid 2000s:4% of ODA7% of World Bank lending
23 EU overseas development assistance to agriculture 5,00010,00015,00020,00025,000196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007Years2007 $ US, millionsDAC EU members to AfricaDAC EU members to agricultureDAC EU to SSA agricultureODA from Europe (Thirtle, Piesse and Hearn, 2009 via OECD DAC data)Donor reviewQuality, not just quantityMore focused
24 African agriculture80% (33 million farms) less than 2 hectares (smallholders)50% of the agricultural labour force is femaleCereal yields, around one ton per hectare, ¼ of those in East Asia.Fertilisers are applied at average rates of about 11kg/ ha of arable land (compared to 112kg/ha in Latin American and the Caribbean)Only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated, of which 70% is Madagascar, Nigeria and Sudan. The potential exists to bring 20 million hectares of land under irrigation.Many pests, diseases and weeds such as Striga, Black Sigatoka, Banana wilt, Cassava mosaic virus, Maize leaf streak and Maruca beetles can destroy crops..
25 A continent of many different stories Room for optimism – we need a more differentiated narrativeWhile recognising that overall there is a lot of room for improvement‘Africa is not in crisis but some African countries are’ (Wiggins, 2011)
26 Delivering change Looking for win-wins: Increasing yields sustainably Enabling access to marketsPolitical leadership
27 Sustainable intensification NERICAS: tissue culture (African and Asia)Yields increase from 1 to 6 ton/ha- higher yield, shorter growth duration, resistance to local stresses and higher protein content thantraditional rice varietiesFaidherbia albidaIn Malawi, maize yields 280% + under the tree canopy compared with the zone outside the tree canopy.In Zambia, unfertilized maize yields near the trees averaged 4.1 tonnes per hectare, compared to 1.3 tonnes beyond the tree canopy.STRIGAWAY: The product combines a low-dose Imazapyr seed coating applied to Imazapyrresistant (IR) maize seed. Small quantities of Imazapyr (as little as 30 g/ha) actbefore or at the time of Striga attachment to the maize root and so prevent thephytotoxic ef ect of Striga on the maize plant, thus enabling the plant to grow toits full potential. Additionally, Imazapyr that is not absorbed by the maize seedling dif uses into the surrounding soil and kills ungerminated Striga seeds
28 Quality as well as quantity Golden rice (GM) – includes betacarotene, precursor to vitamin AOrange fleshed sweet potato for vit A: BMGF funded a project to deliver in Uganda and Mozambique, where vitamin A deficiency affects 38% and 68% of all children respectivelyHGSF links ag to health and education
29 Access to marketsSSA has the lowest density of roads in the world, 204 km per 1000km2 of land area, on average. The world average is 944km/1000km2.FinanceIntermediaries – support for that / extension etc.
32 The gapHigh level rhetoricGap?Grassroots activity
33 Opportunities to influence CAADPG8 : UK Presidency in 2013G20EUGROW Africa / WEF initiativeCAADP:27 countries have completed the CAADP Roundtable process and signed strategy documents, known as ‘compacts’.17 of the countries have moved on to develop their agricultural investment plans and five have been awarded GAFSP funding totalling $223.5 million (Benin et al 2011)
36 How can we feed the world? Highly productiveStableResilientEquitableSustainableHighly productive: by 2050 we will need to have doubled food production and in an efficient manner;Stable: less affected by the vagaries of the weather and the market;Resilient: resistant to, or tolerant of, stress or shocks, especially those generated by climate change; andEquitable: to provide accessible food and incomes, not just to the better off, but to the poor and hungry;Moreover it has to be:Sustainable : we must achieve a pattern of equitable growth that lasts from generation to generation and ensure we do not undermine the environmental and natural resource base on which agriculture depends.
37 What is ‘successful’ scaling up? Link to private sector?Our hypothesis?
40 What is scaling up? Expanding impact? Need to define how we will measure success at scale?Some ideas:Farmers’ incomeNumber of adopters (affected by length of adoption on which there is little consensus, first time adopters, those who have adopted through successive growing seasons etc., those that innovate during adoption and scale)Percentage adopting with the relevant recommendation domain (agro-ecology, national, district, village, percentage per farm)Cropped areaNumbers of livestock using improved practicesType of InterventionTotal factor productivity (land, labour and area)
41 The BossNature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)
42 www.ag4impact.org @Ag4Impact email@example.com Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact11th January 2012