Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results Ana Revenga Director, Poverty Reduction Group World Bank Stockholm.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results Ana Revenga Director, Poverty Reduction Group World Bank Stockholm."— Presentation transcript:

1 Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results Ana Revenga Director, Poverty Reduction Group World Bank Stockholm November 20, 2008

2 Overview MM&E systems and the results agenda Measuring poverty Income/Consumption poverty: new global estimates Non-income poverty: MDGs, voice and empowerment Areas of new analysis Measuring equality of opportunities Measuring service delivery Poverty maps Country level monitoring systems Tracking program effectiveness & poverty impacts Integrating M&E into government processes

3 Poverty Monitoring/ M&E Implementation Using MM&E to enhance development outcomes Results Poverty Diagnostics Impact Evaluation Ex-ante Impact Modeling (PSIA) Strategies, allocation and design MM&E tools Objectives:National process: Better diagnostics on binding constraints to poverty alleviation and equity. Better ex-ante understanding of the distributional impacts of reforms, better design. Better ability to track progress and feedback into policy making. Better understanding of which interventions reduce poverty; Building evidence- based policy.

4 Challenges of Measuring Global (Income) Poverty How do we talk meaningfully about “global poverty”? Poverty lines across countries vary in terms of their purchasing power To measure global poverty, we need to apply a common standard, anchored to what “poverty” means in the world’s poorest countries International comparisons of poverty require PPP, but previous estimates (1993 PPPs) biased Cost of living underestimated in poor countries; quality and price differences confused Other weaknesses: country coverage (no China), urban bias 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) improves PPP and poverty estimates Coverage increased to 146 economies (many more Africa + China) Revised international poverty line = $1.25 / day Global headcount poverty revised upward (1.4 billion), but trend in poverty reduction still robust

5 Measuring income poverty: New global estimates higher, but poverty falling The % below $1.25 a day was halved, falling from 52% to 26% over Trend decline of one % point per year. At this rate, the developing world as a whole is on track for attaining the first MDG. Number of poor fell by 500 million, from 1.9 billion to 1.4 billion Poverty rate fell in all years Robust to choice of poverty line

6 Measuring income poverty: P rogress uneven across regions Revised Poverty Estimates

7 Challenges of Measuring Non-Income Dimensions of Poverty More difficult than using more traditional income/consumption based metrics “Non-monetary” indicators may change more slowly than monetary indicators can be more difficult (and costly) to collect may require special surveys more context-specific and less “universal” may be less tangible and quantifiable …hence perceived as less objective and rigorous

8 Non-Income Measures: Malnourished Children (%) Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

9 Non-Income Measures: Malnourished Children (number) Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank) Resized based on number of children under 5 who are malnourished

10 Non-Income Measures: Access to Education Africa: Enrollment rates have risen, but male- female gap has not significantly narrowed. SA and MENA: Male- female enrollment gap narrowed. Progress in enrollments for ‘last’ % is slow. EAP: Net enrollment rates for male and female children decreased slightly LAC & ECA: Fairly stable

11 Non-Income Measures: Primary Completion (%) Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

12 Non-Income Measures: Primary Completion (number) Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank) Resized based on number of children completing last grade of primary

13 Non-Income Measures: Gender Equality in Education Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

14 Non-Income Measures: Women in wage employment Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

15 Non-Income Measures: Measuring Empowerment Empowerment: expansion of capabilities of poor to participate in, negotiate with and influence institutions that affect their lives Institutional Climate Social and political structures Individual assets and capabilities Collective assets and capabilities Empowerment is difficult to measure quantitatively and benefits from a mixed method approach: Access to most assets can be measured by indicators (but qualitative methods better at evaluating psychological, social assets) Institutional context can be only partially measured by indicators, and is better grasped through use of qualitative/mixed methods.

16 Empowerment indicators (results further explored through focus groups) included: Control over assets (husband, self, joint, others) Participation in village meetings and elections (& if not, why not) Participation in household decision making (husband, self, joint, others) about expenditures, children, joining organizations Autonomy (visiting & purchases) Domestic violence Measuring women’s empowerment in Bangladesh

17 Areas of New Analysis: Measuring Inequality of Opportunities The Human Opportunity Index (HOI) measures differences in opportunity among children. The HOI synthesizes both the absolute level of basic opportunities in a society and how equitably those opportunities are distributed. As the answers are aggregated across services, children and circumstances, a picture arises of how equitable (or not) a society is.

18 Areas of New Analysis: Human Opportunity Index

19 Measuring Equality of Opportunity – within countries

20 Areas of New Analysis: Measuring Service Delivery Service delivery information may be used to increase accountability  Administrative data, facility surveys, PETs Data may be used to deepen our understanding of poverty and inequality and target policy responses  Linking LSMS and facility surveys Careful evaluation aimed at answering key questions of design and the resulting effects can be used to increase the effectiveness of existing programs

21 21 Measuring Service Delivery - Teacher Absence Map (Public Schools) Source: Kremer, Muralidharan, Chaudhury, Hammer, and Rogers “Teacher Absence in India.”

22 Areas of New Analysis: Poverty Maps Each dot is randomly placed within a DS unit and represents 500 poor persons Poverty HeadcountAccessibility IndexDistribution of the Poor Poverty maps can improve policy design: Understanding spatial pattern of poverty and correlates Targeting programs and funding Monitoring progress and communicating results

23 Country level statistical and monitoring systems Country’s statistical capacity is critical Not only for tracking indicators But for supporting rational decision making, policy design and implementation But for results, must link M&E to strategy and budget To have an impact, monitoring and evaluation data must be used for policy formulation and budgeting Requires strong political leadership, coordination, and dissemination of results Basics first Focus on strengthening and harmonizing existing processes Don’t rely on technical fixes alone Create demand among policy makers and stakeholders

24 Country level M&E Systems: Lessons from Uganda M&E results can have big impacts Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS) used in 1996 to identify leakage in funding flow to primary school Found only 13% of funds reached schools in Greater transparency increase flow to 80-90% in Build on existing systems National Integrated M&E System (NIMES) created to coordinate and harmonize 16+ existing systems Intended to relieve data-collection burden and reduce multiplicity of performance indicators Link strategy and budget processes Poverty Action Fund (PAF) links Poverty Reduction Strategy priorities to budget

25 THANK YOU


Download ppt "Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results Ana Revenga Director, Poverty Reduction Group World Bank Stockholm."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google