1. Workshop on Emissions Projections (Bonn, Germany) “General and Cross-Cutting Issues” Takaaki Ito Ministry of the Environment, Japan

2. 2  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming”  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming” was adopted in March, 2002, by the Cabinet overall structure of policies and measures  The Guideline describes overall structure of policies and measures for Japan to achieve the reduction target in Kyoto Protocol, including the GHG emissions projection  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline in May, 2002 updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised  Revision of the Guideline is currently underway; updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised in ”New Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming”  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming”  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming” was adopted in March, 2002, by the Cabinet overall structure of policies and measures  The Guideline describes overall structure of policies and measures for Japan to achieve the reduction target in Kyoto Protocol, including the GHG emissions projection  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline in May, 2002 updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised  Revision of the Guideline is currently underway; updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised in ”New Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming” Submission of NC3

3. 3 A. CO 2 from energy sources 1. Industrial sector Production by each industries Energy saving technologies Fuel conversion energy types New energy CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ Projection of economic growth is determined by the Cabinet separately  Economic trend  Changes in industrial structure, etc. energy consumption

4. 4 A. CO 2 from energy sources 2. Transport sector Traffic demand Eco-driving Fuel conversion (Bio-ethanol) energy consumption energy types CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ GHG emission projection from transportation was estimated in NC3, too  Economic trend  Changes in population, etc. Modal shift Driving condition Transportation efficiency Fuel efficiency

5. 5 A. CO 2 from energy sources 3. Commercial and other sector Number of employees and floor space Energy saving equipment Fuel conversion energy consumption energy types New energy (solar power) CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ Methodology and assumptions were difficult to decide due to the lack of relevant statistics  Changes in employees population  Growth rate of floor area  Trend in buildings, etc. Insulation efficiency Working style

6. 6 A. CO 2 from energy sources 4. Residential sector Number of household and equipment energy types CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ Methodology and assumptions were difficult to decide due to the lack of relevant statistics  Change in household  Trend in equipment  Trend in housings, etc. Energy saving equipment Insulation efficiency Lifestyle New energy (solar power) energy consumption

7. 7 A. CO 2 from energy sources 5. Energy industries sector Demand for electricity Nuclear power energy types New energy Emission ◆ CO 2 emission from generation of electricity is estimated using projected total electricity consumption from all sectors  Trend in electricity consumption of each sectors, etc. Fuel Conversion

8. 8 B. CO 2 from non-energy sources, Ch 4, N 2 O 1. Industrial Processes Production by relevant industries Removal from exhaust gas measures and policies Use of mixed cement Emission  Economic trend  Changes in industrial structure, etc.

9. 9 B. CO 2 from non-energy sources, Ch 4, N 2 O 2. Agriculture Production by crops and livestock Feed management measures and policies Biomass energy Emission  Economic trend  Changes in industrial structure, etc. Management of farms ◆ Projection of crop and livestock production is determined by the Cabinet separately

10. 10 B. CO 2 from non-energy sources, Ch 4, N 2 O 3. Waste Volume of waste Emission  Economic trend  Changes in population, etc. ◆ Projection of waste generation is determined by the Cabinet separately reduction of waste management types Collection and reuse Recycling Combustion at higher temperature Management of sewage

11. 11 Thank you !!