Presentation on theme: "WHY IKE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WAS SO DEVASTATING THE FREEMAN HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist."— Presentation transcript:
WHY IKE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WAS SO DEVASTATING THE FREEMAN HURRICANE DAMAGE POTENTIAL SCALE Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 www.wxresearch.com
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The John C. Freeman Weather Forecast Training and Operations Center World Wide Marine Weather Forecasts Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Predictions Environmental Studies Weather Forensics Long Range Weather Forecasts Development of Forecast Models
Significant Projects: Established the Nations First Weather Museum Texas First Tornado Warning Network 1st Storm Tide Prediction System (Bathystrophic Storm Tide)
Hurricane Ivan – 2004 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita – 2005 and Hurricane Ike 2008 would make one believe that hurricanes are getting larger and stronger.
Hurricane Ivan – 2004 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita – 2005 and Hurricane Ike 2008 would make one believe that hurricanes are getting larger and stronger. Is this due to climate change or is humans understanding of hurricanes changing?
PLOT OF THE NUMBER OF KNOWN TROPICAL CYCLONES 1900- 2008 Seems to indicate that the number of cyclones is increasing?
Problems with Using Historical Tropical Cyclone Data 1851-1914 – Landfall observations and Ship Reports 1915-1945 – Density of Ship Reports expanded after the Panama Canal opened 1946-1965 – Ship traffic expands after WWII 1966 – Continuous monitoring by satellite begins 2002 – QuikScat wind vectors – Improved satellite observations
Atlantic ship traffic changes Vecchi and Knutson (2008)
Open Atlantic Ocean Differences 1933 Hurricane Season 2005 Hurricane Season Data problem: Hurricanes were hardly detected over open ocean before the era of aircraft reconnaissance (mid-1940s) and satellite technology (mid-1960s). Landsea (2007, Eos)
Are Humans at Fault for More and Stronger Offshore Hurricanes? Yes In Summary, to answer the questions:
Have there been similar Gulf of Mexico hurricanes to Ivan 2004, Katrina 2005, Rita 2005 and Ike 2008? Yes the hurricanes in the 1960s, 1910s, and 1880s. In the 1960s, there were four Category 5 hurricanes over the Gulf leases.
If the Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are sorted by decades, are there differences in the number and strength of hurricanes by decade? Yes, for two decades you will have an active period of major hurricanes followed by a decade of very few major hurricanes over the Gulf leases.
How would the early Gulf of Mexico hurricanes impact the Gulf oil leases today? The 1910s would have been very devastating to the properties in the Gulf of Mexico with five Category 5 hurricanes. There were two Category 4 hurricanes in 1915, one that went over the eastern oil leases and one that went through the western oil leases.
Were the hurricanes of the 1960s smaller and weaker or was the exposure offshore less dense? The exposure of the properties to the hurricanes of the 1960s was less dense. Hurricane Carla in 1961 was a Category 5 hurricane offshore with a very large wind field. At the time, there were only 517 offshore properties.
How have humans observed hurricanes throughout history? How humans have observed hurricanes has changed through the years as technology improves. This has impacted the number of observed hurricanes and the hurricane climatology.
What part do improved observations play in the size and strength of hurricanes? Humans are responsible for the implied increase in hurricane frequency and strengths by developing the improved observing tools.
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