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Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? 25 April 2012 Chris Landsea,

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Presentation on theme: "Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? 25 April 2012 Chris Landsea,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? Hurricanes and Climate Change: What do the Observations Show? 25 April 2012 Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, USA Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, Miami, USA

2 How is global warming affecting: Tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, genesis, track, and overall activity?

3 A Typical Day in 2012 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

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6 A Typical Day in 2008 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

7 A Typical Day in 1912 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

8 A Typical Day in 1911 – Marine Data Available around 12 UTC

9 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century 7 12

10 2007 Hurricane Season - 15 Tropical Storms & Hurricanes… …9 of which were very short-lived (< 36 hr)

11 New Tools and Technologies ~ Additional TCs lately? AMSU Tropospheric Temperatures Hart’s Cyclone Phase Space Analyses Quikscat Surface Vectors

12 Big Upward Trend – Consistent with Technological Improvements

13 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century 7 12

14 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers - Trend Nearly Gone after Removal of Very Short-Lived Cyclones 7 8

15 Atlantic ship traffic changes Vecchi and Knutson (2008)

16 Estimated Number of “Missed” Tropical Storms and Hurricanes of Medium to Long Duration 2-3 per year in 1880s 1-2 per year in 1900s <1 per year in 1950s

17 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – A Very Large Trend over a Century 7 12

18 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers - Trend Nearly Gone after Removal of Very Short-Lived Cyclones 7 8

19 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Numbers – Upward Trend Gone After Adding in “Missed” and Removing Very Short-Lived Cyclones 9 8 Landsea et al. (2010, Journal of Climate)


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