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Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes.

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Presentation on theme: "Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

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4 How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes

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6 and Keep Your Business Profitable!

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8 Welcome Safety Managers

9 Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author, 1850s-1880s

10 Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850s -1880s Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

11 Planning Alice in Wonderland

12 Alice said to the Cat, Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?

13 That depends a good deal on where you want to get to, said the Cheshire Cat.

14 I dont much care where… said Alice.

15 Then it doesnt matter which way you go, said the Cheshire Cat.

16 …so long as I get somewhere, Alice added as an explanation.

17 Oh, youre sure to do that, said the Cheshire Cat, if you only walk long enough.

18 know which way to go Flight safety program managers need to know which way to go…

19 accidentpreventers & how far to walk to become accident preventers…

20 accident investigators … and not become accident investigators!

21 Procedures & Examples of how to produce… Safety Forecast & Plans

22 Forecast Annual Safety Forecast & Plan Annual Safety Plan Safety Forecast & Plans

23 Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes...to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes Safety Forecast & Plans

24 Paul Miller -Independent safety consultant -B767 & B757 intl line captain, -Flies for a global logistics company & express package delivery service -Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

25 Paul Miller is now: -Independent safety consultant

26 Safety Forecasts & Plans

27 -Simple Procedures

28 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating

29 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards

30 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved

31 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged

32 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported

33 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization…

34 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization… …YOURS!

35 …All Safety is Local

36 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards

37 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening

38 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science

39 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list

40 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning

41 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk

42 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

43 What are Hazards?

44 -Probable Risks

45 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks

46 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People

47 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death

48 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property

49 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

50 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

51 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property $$$$ -Damage & Destruction

52 What are Hazard$? -Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$ People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property $$$$ -Damage & Destruction Additional cost$?

53 Hazard Unresolved?

54 -no strategy for resolution?

55 Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding?

56 Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding? -culturally accepted as irresolvable?

57 Hazard Unmanaged?

58 -no manager for resolution?

59 Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager?

60 Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager? -assigned manager not functioning?

61 Hazard Unreported?

62 -New or emerging hazard?

63 Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported?

64 Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported? -Reoccurring hazard?

65 Hazard Affect?

66 -people?

67 Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization?

68 Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization? -customers, neighbors & visitors?

69 Hazard Affect?

70 -property & equipment?

71 Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization?

72 Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization? -belonging to others?

73 Early Detection …is the key

74 Early Detection Why Early Detection? The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution plan can be created.

75 Millers Early Detection Theorem

76 The longer a hazard exists,

77 Millers Early Detection Theorem The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap

78 Detection at all Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem

79 Detection Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based

80 Detection Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based Hazardspeople-action B. Hazards are people-action

81 Detection Why Detection at all? Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based Hazardspeople-action lack-of-actionbased B. Hazards are people-action or lack-of-action-based

82 Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

83 Elimination of people- based hazards…

84 Millers Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary Elimination of people- based hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.

85 Millers Safety Riddle:

86 Millers Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? ??

87 Millers Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ??

88 Millers Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?? ?

89 Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem…

90 The quicker a hazard is resolved,

91 Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

92 Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap. The resolution time is as important as the resolution

93 Millers Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The resolution time is as important as the resolution The resolution time is as important as the resolution

94 Rabbit Response

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96 Annual Safety Plan based on Rabbit Response of Resolution

97 Annual Safety Plan based on Rapid Response of Resolution

98 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations

99 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

100 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

101 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy

102 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy Hazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

103 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Hazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

104 Credible Source Safety manger

105 Safety Forecasting

106 Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

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111 0 +Y +X +Z 100%

112 Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year

113 Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence

114 Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness

115 Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y

116 Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y

117 Millers Safety Formula for Risk Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y -Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge

118 Millers Formula for Safety Risk is a Mathematical expression of Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or Z Z = sine |X| N ( Y ) Where: X = Hazard Probability from 0 to here-it-comes Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major Sine = regular time fluctuations N = variable factors

119 N = Millers Possible Variable factors N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where: n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity n5 = Employee morale destruction n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence

120 A graph of the mathematical equation Z= sine|X|(NY) gives a visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution challenge!.

121 Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric

122 Risk (costs) = probability x severity Z = X Y where Z, X,Y>0

123 Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.

124 Planning

125 …from local safety forecast

126 local organization Planning involves very specific procedures, which are clear for your local organization to follow.

127 external Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for external organizations

128 Conclusion Charting a safe course

129 Successful Flight Safety Program Procedures…

130 … to keep one step ahead of the next big accident

131 …lower your local accident rate toward zero! ! ! ! ! !

132 Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes…

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134 …and Keep Your Business Profitable!


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