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Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Challenges.

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Presentation on theme: "Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Challenges."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

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4 How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Challenges

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7 Welcome Safety Managers & all to EASS 2003, Geneva!

8 Flight Safety Foundation, European Advisory Committee

9 Welcome Safety Managers & all to EASS 2003, Geneva! European Regions Airline Association

10 Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author, 1850s-1880s

11 Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850s -1880s Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

12 Planning Alice in Wonderland

13 Alice said to the Cat, Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?

14 That depends a good deal on where you want to get to, said the Cheshire Cat.

15 I dont much care where… said Alice.

16 Then it doesnt matter which way you go, said the Cheshire Cat.

17 …so long as I get somewhere, Alice added as an explanation.

18 Oh, youre sure to do that, said the Cheshire Cat, if you only walk long enough.

19 know which way to go Flight safety program managers need to know which way to go…

20 accidentpreventers & how far to walk to become accident preventers…

21 accident investigators … and not become accident investigators!

22 Procedures & Examples of how to produce… Safety Forecast & Plans

23 Forecast Annual Safety Forecast & Plan Annual Safety Plan Safety Forecast & Plans

24 Future Safety Challenges...to meet Future Safety Challenges Safety Forecast & Plans

25 Paul Miller -pilots association, safety committee -association represents pilots who fly for a global logistics company & express package delivery service -B767 & B757 international line captain -Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

26 Paul Miller, safety committee member pilots association Safety program manager: Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

27 Safety Forecasts & Plans

28 -Simple Procedures

29 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating

30 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards

31 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved

32 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged

33 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported

34 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization…

35 Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization… …YOURS!

36 …All Safety is Local

37 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening

38 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list

39 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning

40 Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

41 What are Hazards?

42 -Probable Risks

43 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks

44 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People

45 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death

46 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property

47 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

48 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$Euros$$ -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

49 What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$Euros$$ -Injury & Death Property $$Euros$$ -Damage & Destruction

50 What are Hazard$? -Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$ People $$Euros$$ -Injury & Death Property $$Euros$$ -Damage & Destruction Additional cost$?

51 Hazard Unresolved?

52 -no strategy for resolution?

53 Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding?

54 Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding? -culturally accepted as irresolvable?

55 Hazard Unmanaged?

56 -no manager for resolution?

57 Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager?

58 Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager? -assigned manager not functioning?

59 Hazard Unreported?

60 -New or emerging hazard?

61 Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported?

62 Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported? -Reoccurring hazard?

63 Hazard Affect?

64 -people?

65 Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization?

66 Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization? -customers, neighbors & visitors?

67 Hazard Affect?

68 -property & equipment?

69 Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization?

70 Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization? -belonging to others?

71 Early Detection …is the key

72 Early Detection Why Early Detection? The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution plan can be created.

73 Early Detection Theorem

74 The longer a hazard exists,

75 Early Detection Theorem The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap

76 Detection at all Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem

77 Detection Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based

78 Detection Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based Hazardspeople-action B. Hazards are people-action

79 Detection Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem Mishapshazard-based A. Mishaps are hazard-based Hazardspeople-action lack-of-actionbased B. Hazards are people-action or lack-of-action-based

80 Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

81 Elimination of people- based hazards…

82 Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary Elimination of people- based hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.

83 Safety Riddle:

84 Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? ??

85 Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ??

86 Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?? ?

87 Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem…

88 The quicker a hazard is resolved,

89 Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

90 Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem… The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap. The resolution time is as important as the resolution The resolution time is as important as the resolution

91 Rabbit Response

92 Annual Safety Plan based on Rabbit Response of Resolution

93 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations

94 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

95 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

96 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy

97 Annual Safety Plan - based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy Hazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

98 Early Detection Methods

99 -Internal

100 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Direct and Formal

101 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, , on- line, mail, phone call, suggestion box,

102 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, , on- line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees,

103 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, , on- line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees, training material, safety audits, on-site safety assist visits,

104 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Direct and Formal Verbal & written, in-person, , on- line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees, training material, safety audits, on-site safety assist visits, your own safety inspections, any credible source.

105 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Indirect and Informal

106 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports,

107 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon,

108 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon, gossip, intelligence sources, your own intuition, experience, judgment,

109 Early Detection Methods -Internal -Indirect and Informal Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon, gossip, intelligence sources, your own intuition, experience, judgment, piece together story, from any credible source.

110 Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal

111 Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal Industry literature,

112 Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences,

113 Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations,

114 Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations, regulatory material, inferred from other safety organizations, press reports,

115 Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations, regulatory material, inferred from other safety organizations, press reports, other industry members actions, any credible source.

116 Credible Source

117 Cultural Listening Lessons

118 Substance - Substance of Communications:

119 Cultural Listening Lessons what is being said, what is not being said? - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said?

120 Cultural Listening Lessons - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? - Response :

121 Cultural Listening Lessons - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? Acknowledge, propose remedy. - Response : Acknowledge, propose remedy.

122 Cultural Listening Lessons - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? - Response : Acknowledge, propose remedy. Style - Style of Communications:

123 Cultural Listening Lessons - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? - Response : Acknowledge, propose remedy. how it is being said & what else can you infer? - Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer?

124 Cultural Listening Lessons - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? - Response : Acknowledge, propose remedy. - Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer? - Response :

125 Cultural Listening Lessons - Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? - Response : Acknowledge, propose remedy. - Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer? - Response : Give appreciation, credit, encouragement, positive reassurance that remedy is forthcoming, in cultural language of reporter (local, vernacular)

126 Probability

127 -Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data

128 Probability -Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data -Local interpretations, verbal descriptions, artistic stories, traditional analogies, personal expressions of feelings.

129 Probability -Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data -Local interpretations, verbal descriptions, artistic stories, traditional analogies, personal expressions of feelings. WHATEVER WORKS BEST -WHATEVER WORKS BEST in cultural context of your local organization

130 Safety Forecasting

131

132 -Looking ahead

133 Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses

134 Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses -based on principle of early detection

135 Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses -based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved

136 Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses -based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property

137 Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses -based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property -based on principle of rapid response

138 Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses -based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property -based on principle of rapid response -based on classifying hazard as a procedure, practice, policy, technique or philosophy

139 Safety Forecasting procedure -procedure is written step by step specific instructions such as Aircraft Operating Manual Instrument Landing Procedures

140 Safety Forecasting - procedure is written step by step specific instructions practice -practice is common customary application of a procedure by the pilot (practitioner) such as how to execute Instrument Landing Procedures

141 Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application policy -policy is written organizational goal for all to follow such as, all pilots shall be trained in Instrument Landing Procedures for operations during instrument conditions

142 Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application -policy is written organizational goal for all to follow technique -technique is an art, style or twist of how best to execute these landing practices to obtain increased airport capacity safely

143 Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application -policy is written organizational goal for all to follow -technique is an art, style or twist philosophy -philosophy is a set of orderly rules of conduct for all to decide right from wrong such as instrument procedures improve public safety in commercial aviation.

144 Safety Forecasting -what are the people and property for which you have:

145 Safety Forecasting -what are the people and property for which you have: responsibility, ownership, oversight, liability, duty of care, awareness or other local connection. Missing Doppler radar story After 1978 microburst mishap and 1985 mishap major hub airport still did not Doppler radar. While it was the responsibility of the weather service, CAA and city airport, it was the airline which suffered the loss in life and money.

146 Sir, does your dog bite? No, my dog does not bite… Ouch! The dog bit me! You said your dog does not bite! Yes, but that is not my dog!

147 Safety Forecasting -awareness from early detection -logical inductive reasoning Deductive reasoning vs Inductive ?

148 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them?

149 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? A. Deduction:

150 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? A. Deduction: -Yes, because it has affected them in the past

151 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? A. Deduction: -Yes, because it has affected them in the past, or -No, because it has not affected them in the past.

152 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? B. Induction:

153 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? B. Induction: -Yes, because it poses a probable, serious risk

154 Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? B. Induction: -Yes, because it poses a probable, serious risk, or -No, because my assets are probably not at serious risk.

155 Inductive reasoning -outside the data set -projecting outward -educated guess -estimate -based on experience and judgment -financial, crop, business, sports, weather, housing, marketing, production, political, election, education forecasts.

156 Pothole in the Road

157 -gradually appears and gets worse

158 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it

159 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it -obvious for all to see

160 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway

161 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire

162 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire -some of those lose control

163 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire -some of those lose control -some of those collide with a car or tree

164 Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse -every car doesnt hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire -some of those lose control -some of those collide with a car or tree -some of those will be injured

165 Pothole in the Road -some of those will die

166 Pothole in the Road -some of those will die -all because of a pothole in the road

167 Pothole in the Road -some of those will die -all because of a pothole in the road -the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared

168 Pothole in the Road -some of those will die -all because of a pothole in the road -the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared -Deduction says no one would get hurt because no one has been hurt yet.

169 Pothole in the Road -some of those will die -all because of a pothole in the road -the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared -Deduction says no one would get hurt because no one has been hurt yet. -Induction says if we fix the pothole no one will get hurt.

170 Inductive Logic Safety managers must perfect inductive logic to prevent accidents

171 Inductive Logic they will spend a lot of time using deductive reasoning trying to explain why some disaster occurred. Safety managers must perfect inductive logic to prevent accidents or they will spend a lot of time using deductive reasoning trying to explain why some disaster occurred.

172 Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

173

174

175

176

177 0 +Y +X +Z 100%

178 Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year

179 Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence

180 -Risk equals probability times seriousness Z = X Y -Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge

181 Mathematical expression of Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or Z Z = sine |X| N ( Y ) Where: X = Hazard Probability from 0 to here-it- comes Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major Sine = regular time fluctuations N = variable factors

182 N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where: n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity n5 = Employee morale destruction n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence

183 A graph of the mathematical equation Z= sine|X|(NY) gives a visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution challenge!.

184 Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric

185 Risk (costs) = probability x severity Z = X Y where Z, X,Y>0

186 Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.

187 Safety Forecast may involve you becoming aware of hazards such as these: -Flightcrew observing language-based misunderstood ATC instructions, which have led to close encounters with terrain, heard about on a crew bus -Increased employee auto mishap injuries, heard about from health benefit director -unreported ? -unmanaged ? -unresolved ?

188 Planning

189 …from local safety forecast

190 local organization Planning involves very specific procedures, which are clear for your local organization to follow.

191 -Innovative flight crew terrain hazard awareness training

192 -All-employee drive-safe activities

193 -Innovative flight crew terrain hazard awareness training -All-employee drive-safe activities - Examples of local flight safety programs

194 -Innovative flight crew terrain hazard awareness training -All-employee drive-safe activities - Examples of local flight safety programs - Responding to forecasts of unresolved hazards

195 -Innovative flight crew terrain hazard awareness training -All-employee drive-safe activities - Examples of local flight safety programs - Responding to forecasts of unresolved hazards, - Preventing accidents rather than investigating aviation disasters

196 external Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for external organizations

197 -Coordinated Interagency Premishap Preparation

198 -Coordinated Interagency Premishap Preparation -Letters of Safety Concern

199 -Coordinated Interagency Premishap Preparation -Letters of Safety Concern -Examples of specific recommendations

200 -Coordinated Interagency Premishap Preparation -Letters of Safety Concern -Examples of specific recommendations for organizations external to your local operation

201 Example of annual safety forecast

202 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast.

203 -Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast

204 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast. -Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections,

205 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast. -Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars,

206 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast. -Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations.

207 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast. -Airport operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations. -From the Forecast

208 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast. -Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations. -From the Forecast an Annual Safety Plan

209 Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast. -Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations. -From the Forecast an Annual Safety Plan was developed to address the hazards.

210 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

211 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

212 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

213 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

214 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

215 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

216 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

217 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

218 Forecast Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops Bird strikes 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year FOD 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar coordination problems 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking hazmat employee exposure 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally minor injury increase 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards driving losses & vehicular damage 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff without alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

219 Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops reported safety visit 1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year observed seminar 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar experienced 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking read about experienced locally 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally reported 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards mentioned by 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff sufficient study 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

220 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops

221 January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification

222 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning

223 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training

224 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking

225 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May- Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review

226 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training

227 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication

228 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning

229 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review

230 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation

231 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training

232 Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training December- Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

233 Plan Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops January January - Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February February - All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March March - All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April April - Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May May - Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June June - All Employee First-aid Training July July - Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August August - All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September September - Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October October - Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November November - All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training December December- Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

234 Plan Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops Exercise January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise -Alert Notification FOD Deep Cleaning February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning Training March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training Exercise April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise -Interagency Tasking InspectionReview May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review Training June-All Employee First-aid Training Exercise July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise -Radio Communication FOD Deep Cleaning August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning Review September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review Exercise October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise -Transportation Training November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training Review December- Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

235 Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops

236 1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system.

237 Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops 1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance.

238 Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops 1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest.

239 Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops 1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest. 4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during off-peak traffic hours, when you operate.

240 Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops 1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest. 4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during off-peak traffic hours, when you operate. 5. Varying levels of regulatory safety concerning the required equipment for proposed DRVSM operations.

241 Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops 1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest. 4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during off-peak traffic hours, when you operate. 5. Varying levels of regulatory safety concerning the required equipment for proposed DRVSM operations. 6. Human factors problems view as labor-management issue with cultural overtones.

242 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops

243 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system,

244 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built- in response procedures,

245 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built- in response procedures, feed-back procedures

246 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built- in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved.

247 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product,

248 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere.

249 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display

250 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures.

251 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures. 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA

252 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest.

253 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures.

254 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators

255 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF).

256 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall.

257 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations of your organization.

258 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication.

259 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter.

260 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research,

261 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture

262 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize human factors as management-labor issue.

263 Plan Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops Develop 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved Obtain 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures Publish 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. Change 4. Begin campaign to Change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations Attend Publish 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. Establish 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize labor issue.

264 Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops system procedures 1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved product procedures 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures abstracts procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. philosophy education service 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations One Level Of Safety newsletter 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for One Level Of Safety for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. Workshop culture 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize human factors as management-labor issue.

265 Conclusion Charting a safe course

266 Safety Forecast -based on hazards which are: 1. Unreported 2. Unmanaged 3. Unresolved 4. Local Affect

267 Safety Plan -based on Local Safety Forecast: 1. To report hazard 2. To manage hazard 3. To resolve hazard 4. To protect local assets

268 Successful Flight Safety Program Procedures…

269 … to keep one step ahead of the next big accident

270 …lower your local accident rate to zero! ! ! ! ! !

271 Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Challenges!

272 Thank you!


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