1. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen www.bjerknes.uib.no Helge Drange helge.drange@gfi.uib.no Observed and projected climate change – from global to local scale

2. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen CO 2 (parts per million) CO 2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii)

3. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

4. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2008

5. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2009

6. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2010

7. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2011

8. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2012

9. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 1912

10. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Church et al (2011) Change in heat (10 22 J) Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice

11. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Church et al (2011) Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice Change in heat (10 22 J)

12. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Earth´s climate is changing Main reason is our use of coal, oil and gas

13. Helge Drange Geophysical institute University of Bergen Possible future uncertainty ≠ no certainty

14. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961-1990)

15. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Future emissions as today (“Business-as-usual”) +2 °C 2025-2050 Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961-1990) In 2100: Global: 4.0-5.8 °C Land: 5.0-8.5 °C

16. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Global emission top in 2040, 650 ppm CO 2 -eq in 2100 +2 °C 2035-2075 Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961-1990) For a global, mean warming of ~2 °C, which we can expect sometime during second half of the 21 st century, Earth's climate is comparable to the climate ~3.2 mill years ago In 2100: Global: 2.0-3.0 °C Land: 2.1-4.8 °C

17. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Drought index based on 14 climate models (2090-2099; RCP4.5) Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012) Severe to extreme drought Incr soil moisture

18. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Over to local scale (where we all live) Much harder to do local than continental/global climate projections! Harder to make projections of precipitation than temperature Very hard to make projections about local changes in extremes

19. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

20. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

21. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

22. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

23. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

24. Western Norway, 14 September 2005

25. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen

26. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 14 Sep 2005 For Bergen: +30 to +70 % increase in extreme precipitation by the end of the century

27. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Obs change in annual mean precipitation, Norway (1900-2012, eKlima.no) Precipitation (mm) +20 % last 100 yr +31 % last 50 yr (mean 1787 mm)

28. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Photo: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende Sea level

29. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Warming of the ocean May contribute 15-20 cm in this century Glaciers melting May contribute 15-20 cm in this century Greenland and Antarctica May contribute 10-40 cm in this century (large uncertainties) Total: +40 to +80 cm in 2100 Cont’d increase “forever”

30. Department of Geophysics University of Bergen Drange m.fl. (2012) Estimated sea level rise (cm) along the coast of Norway, next 100 years (corresponding to a global sea level rise of 50-110 cm) About 1/3 of this rise by 2050

31. Department of Geophysics University of Bergen Sea level Will last for > 1000 yr

32. Department of Geophysics University of Bergen 2-degree target

33. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (i) CO 2 -emissions from coal, oil and gas, 1950-2012 Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

34. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (ii) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2013 Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2013: − 7 % / yr

35. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (iii) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2017 Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2017: −11 % / yr 2013: − 7 % / yr

36. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (iv) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2021 Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) 2021: −22 % / yr 2017: −11 % / yr 2013: − 7 % / yr

37. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen ? 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO 2 -emissions (v) Reduced CO 2 -emissions from 2025 Global CO 2 -emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated 2025: −90 % / yr 2021: −22 % / yr 2017: −11 % / yr 2013: − 7 % / yr

38. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen About 20 percent About 20 percent of today's CO 2 -emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more

39. Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Earthrise, 24 Dec 1968 (credit: NASA) Slides and animations available from helge.drange@gfi.uib.no