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Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs Daniel Fabrycky*, Eric Agol, Kevin Stevenson, Sarah Ballard, Roberto Sanchis-Ojeda, Joshua.

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Presentation on theme: "Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs Daniel Fabrycky*, Eric Agol, Kevin Stevenson, Sarah Ballard, Roberto Sanchis-Ojeda, Joshua."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs Daniel Fabrycky*, Eric Agol, Kevin Stevenson, Sarah Ballard, Roberto Sanchis-Ojeda, Joshua Winn, Matthew Holman, Tsevi Mazeh, Kepler Team and the World *U Chicago *Sloan Fellowship

2 Transit Timing Variations Agol et al. 2005, Murray & Holman 2005

3 The Promise Agol, Steffen, Sari, Clarkson (2005)

4 The Frustration HD TrES-2 Steffen & Agol 2005 Agol & Steffen 2007

5 The Frustration Miller-Ricci+07 HD Miller-Ricci+07 HD Miller-Ricci+06 HD Ballard+10 GJ436 Gibson+10 HAT-P-3 Gibson+10 TrES-3 Adams+10 OGLE-TR-113 Adams+10 OGLE-TR-113 Bean 09 CoRoT-exo-1 Csizmadia+10 CoRoT-exo-1

6 The Frustration GJ 1214 Carter et al. 2010

7

8 Architectures of Other Planetary Systems Basic facts: Planet number Masses Radii Dynamical properties: Periods (n.b.: their ratios) Eccentricities Mutual Inclinations TransitsRadial Velocities w/ TDV w/ TTV Science Goals: Mass-Radius measurements (Composition) Planet Discovery / Full Architectures Resonant dynamics Migration Constraints

9 Results from Kepler Unique masses: Kepler-9, 11, 18, 30, 36, KOI-1574 (Ofir et al.), KOI-152 (Jontof-Hutter et al.), KOI-620 (Masuda), KOI-314 (Kipping et al.) Anti-correlation to confirm planethood (Ford et al. 2012, Steffen et al. 2013, Fabrycky et al. 2012, Ji-Wei Xie et al. arxiv: , ) Anti-correlation to measure mass and eccentricity distributions (Lithwick et al. 2013, Hadden & Lithwick 2013, Xie 2014). Clearinghouse of TTV and TDV curves (Mazeh et al. 2013)

10 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

11 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

12 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

13 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

14 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

15 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

16 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

17 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)

18 Kepler 9 2 gas giants, TTVing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010) See also Ofir & Dreizler M b = 42.3±0.6 M E * 80±4 M E M c = 29.1±0.6 M E * 54±8 M E * (1.0 M host assumed) MCMC of TTV published (w/ RVs)

19 Fits to all TTVs Chose the large-amplitude, distinctive TTV shapes. Found dynamical fits to them, and explored uncertainties by DEMCMC Extrapolated that cloud of fits to future times, for follow-up observations Needed to invoke additional planets in some multi- transiting systems.

20 MCMC chains

21 Differential Evolution MCMC

22 Kepler-30 Fabrycky, Ford, Steffen et al. 2012

23

24

25 Systems with Distinctive O-C KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012) P/P = 1.696

26 Systems with Distinctive O-C KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012) P/P = 1.696

27 KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012) P/P = P/P = 2.43 Kepler-19 Ballard, Fabrycky, et al Inversion including inclination: Nesvorny et al. (2008,09,10)

28 Spitzer TTV program Spitzer program. Spitzer program p10127 Not hot Jupiters Deep transits Long-period = Long durations

29 KOI-1426 b c d Unique solutions KOI-872 (Nesvorny+12) KOI-1474 (Dawson+12) KOI-142 (Nesvorny+13)

30 Cabrera et al. 2013, Agol et al. in prep

31 Kepler-90h; P=330 days KOI-351 = Kepler 90

32

33 Planes: 13,600km Neutrinos: 11,100km Time zones: 12

34 KOINet: Carolina van Essen (Gottingen / Stefan Dreizler) Other efforts: Ciardi (KFOP) Pepper (colleges) Santerne Gary (amateur) # targets: A few dozen. Depends strongly on precision.

35 Summary Kepler is a machine for finding multiplanet systems, both multi-transiting and perturbed systems TTVs are unveiling full system architectures and additional planets, even in multi-transiting systems. Following these transit times, world-wide, will be a major effort and legacy of Kepler.


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