Barringer Crater, AZ 150 m (Toutatis 4 km) 1.2 km Impact Damage: 1000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs = 1000 x 15 kt = 15 Mt
History ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com 1908 – Tunguska Event – A 50 m asteroid exploded over Siberia with the equivalent damage of 600 Hiroshima nuclear bombs 1967 – A group of MIT students look to develop first asteroid interceptor with Project Icarus January 1967 – Outer Space Treaty signed between the U.S., Russia, and the U.K July 1991 – STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) signed 1998 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 1 km 2005 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 140 m by the year 2020, funds pending April 2010 – New START treaty signed between the U.S. and Russia October 2012– Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey, total damages reaching ~ $60b 2029 – The 300 m asteroid 99942 Apophis will miss Earth by approximately one tenth the distance from the Earth to Moon August 2005– Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans, total damages reaching ~ $81b
Context Too impractical Need more power for short timeline Too risky – too close Nuclear fallout and reformation possible ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com There currently exists no mitigation plan against eventual Earth impact with these smaller, yet still powerful asteroids
The GOLDen Scenario Assumptions 1.Incoming asteroid trajectory 2.Very dense incoming asteroid 3.Poor albedo 4.Subsurface detonation is 100 times more effective 5.Correct midcourse and terminal guidance methods in place No nuclear fallout! 2 nd ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com
Timeline > 30 day launch window needed Launch ~3 min into flight separation Initial maneuver and Guide autonomously Sensors on with ~24 hours to go EKV separates and detonates Nuclear warhead detonates on area impacted by EKV
Simulation Inputs (Apophis intercept 2029): M = 2.7E+20 kg a = 0.92241 AU e = 0.19121 E nuc = 1.0E+17 J (20 X E B83 = 5 PJ) Lead Time = 30 days ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Earth Apophis Before Apophis After
Simulation Close-up Inputs (Apophis intercept 2029): M = 2.7E+20 kg a = 0.92241 AU e = 0.19121 E nuc = 1.0E+17 J (20 X E B83 ) Lead Time = 30 days ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Earth Apophis Before Apophis After
Trajectories Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU) Heliocentric Coordinate Y (AU) Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU) ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Earth Apophis Before Apophis After Impact
Simulation Outputs Lead Time Alt. at Intercept Alt at Intercept Impact Angle ΔV ast Safe Distance ToFTransfer Angle ΔVΔVProp. Mass daysReAUdegkm/sRedaysdegkm/skg 15988.50.04200.136178.51419.41.402496.9 301.77E+030.07200.140165.52434.33.8581796.3 150.135161.7 300.121146.6 450.099127.3 600.070100.2 452.30E+030.09800.143157.23649.37.0734853.0 602.59E+030.11000.144153.54564.412.14516286.3 752.61E+-30.11100.144154.85279.619.04771657.0 Note: Distance to Moon ~ 60 Re ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com
The GOLD Spacecraft Nuclear Device Heat Shield Fuzing Mast 55 in 23 in Mass = 65.3 kg Nuc Mass = 1100 kg Est. Total Dry Mass = 1500 kg Cooling System ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com The Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is a missile that has been in service since 2004 and widely tested against an array of targets 12 ft 4.5 ft
The Global Planetary Defensive Agency (GPDA) ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Tasks: Maintain the three stations across the Equator Monitor the skies for incoming threats Reallocate of the global nuclear arsenal Analyze the scenario for the last line of defense Location of impact vs. destruction
Limitations ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Trade Studies will be performed to follow up on the following questions: – How does GOLDs effectiveness compare with Dr. Bong Weis proposition – Probability of collision with Earth, necessary? – Currently using just the IR sensor of the EKV, sensitive enough? – Ability to maneuver a 1000 kg payload? – Possible explosion vs actual push? – How to shape a subsurface nuclear explosion to maximize resultant ΔV and change asteroid trajectory?
Phase 1 – A Real End-to-End Mission Simulation – No Threat Sim (NTS) ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Components identified – launcher, sim weapon, integration strategy, ops Simulation start Target identified Integration Launch Midcourse Guidance Target acquired Terminal Guidance Phasing and trajectory alignment Close in sequence – includes precursory camera flyby ? Charge Delivery and detonation Reconnaissance and threat defused assurance/verification
Phase 2 – Monte Carlo Analysis ; Government Infrastructure : GOLD John T. Marcy John.Marcy@gmail.com Amount of lead time Variability in nuclear weapon effectiveness Mission planning Possibility to change mission midflight? Classification of incoming asteroid
References 1.Houdu, Guillaume. Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptor Proposed for Asteroid Impactors. http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/09/25/innovative-hypervelocity-nuclear-interceptor-spacecraft- mitigating-impact-threat-asteroids/. 25 September 2012 2.Maccone, Caldio. Planetary Defense From Space: Part I – Keplerian Theory. Acta Astronautica. 4 May 2004. 3.Thangavelu, Madhu. Putting Surplus Nukes to Good Use. www.spacenews.com. 12 April 2010. 4.Wei, Bong. An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development. NIAC Fall Symposium, November 14-15, 2012, Hampton, VA 5.Wei, Bong. Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptors for Asteroid Deflection or Disruption. 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, 09-12 May 2011. 6.Wei, Bong. Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects. NIAC Phase I Final Report. 25 September 2012. 7.http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthread.php/40725-How-to-Colonize-the-Moon-without-breaking-NASA-s- budget 8.http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/26/rush-on-to-find-fragments-of-california-meteor/ 9.http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/07/thousands-of-nearby-asteroids-are-big-enough-to-harm-earth-nasa/ 10.http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/linear.html http://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu/ 11.http://timeforchange.org/nuclear-energy-and-nuclear-weapons-per-country 12.http://www.adrc.iastate.edu/ 13.http://www.defense.gov/news/briefingslide.aspx?briefingslideid=182 14.http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/nasa-plans-armageddon-spacecraft-to-blast-asteroid-215924/ 15.http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-138 16.http://www.missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.17/system_detail.asp 17.http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12842&page=1 18.http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/mission/index.html 19.http://www.strath.ac.uk/space/research/missionsystems/asteroiddeflectiontechnologies/
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