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Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Airs Perspective & Implementation Presented by Danny Ho Safety & Security Div. EVA Air Corporation Aug 30, 2013 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Airs Perspective & Implementation Presented by Danny Ho Safety & Security Div. EVA Air Corporation Aug 30, 2013 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Airs Perspective & Implementation Presented by Danny Ho Safety & Security Div. EVA Air Corporation Aug 30,

2 Philosophy on Safety Risk Management Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response. Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable. Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time. 2

3 Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation -Traditional Practice 3 Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM) + Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)

4 Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM MCD FSD

5

6

7 Post Flight Analysis A/C Performance Analysis Daily Trend Analysis DFDR Flight Data Animation (QAR) Hazard Identification & Risk Management FDM/ Aerobytes WGBBS

8 Flight Data FDM Daily Report Alert Event Detect Event Event Review Event Review Meeting Statistics/Data base FDM/FOQA Training Improvement & Procedure Modification Quarterly Report Annual Report Trend Analysis Report

9 Before the flight! 9 Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis, what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ?

10 Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation During the flight Before the flight After the flight FOQA/FDM ACMS/AHM FORAS 10

11 FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight. 11

12 Flight Operation Risk Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together Fatigued crew with MRT Non precision approach or ILS out of service Strong cross wind Low visibility with rain or snow Thrust Reverser INOP RWY is not grooved with percipitation The complexity of approach procedure & runway configuration Operating crew never operating into this airport before …

13 Sponsored by : NASA Prototype Developed by : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel FORAS Development EVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee Think Tank of FSF Project Background

14 System Introduction FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations. – Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and aircrafts status etc. A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure. – A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool. Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety. – Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation to ensure a safe operation. 14

15 CRTS FIS SMIS NOTAM Weather System 2. System Architecture CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking System FIS: Flight Information System SMIS: Safety Management Information System EVA Database FORAS Fuzzy inference engine FORAS CPI engine FORAS Models

16 FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System DRV : Departure Risk Value ALRV : Approach & Landing Risk Value DRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.

17 Model structure Rule Tables (Dep 133;Arr 166) Raw Data (D-Value: Dep 116;Arr 141) Terminal value (T-value:Dep 117;Arr 146) Crew Variable (Dep 77;Arr 85) Sector Variable (Dep 6;Arr 11) Aircraft Variable (Dep 1;Arr 1) Crew Variable (Dep 77;Arr 85) Sector Variable (Dep 6;Arr 11) Aircraft Variable (Dep 1;Arr 1) DRV / ALRV T value definition 17

18 Crew Functionality Intercrew Communication Pilot Experience Pilot Fatigue Transient Fatigue Cumulative Fatigue A/C Flying Experience Airport Familiarity Airport recency Special airport/runway Numbers of previous visits Experience Pairing Rank Composition Comm. Proficiency 18

19 19 A/C Flying Experience Total Hours Sectors Flying recency as PF EVA type hours Pre-EVA hours EVA hours Type landing Landing at rank EVA landing

20 20 Transient Fatigue Pre-workload Pre-flight RestIn-flight fatigue In-flight Rest Previous sectors flown on this duty period Duty hours since beginning Pre-flight circadian night Pre-flight rest hours Extra crew availability Crew bunk availability Duty hours of this flight In-flight rest hours

21 21 Cumulative Fatigue Work Amount Rest Pre-7 days workload Previous Flying Schedule stability Rest recency Rest amount Pre-30 days workload Pre-90 days workload

22 Aircraft Functionality DRV & ALRV-related MEL Fleet Items A330 : 64 B747 : 64 B777 : 104 MD11 : 79 B ER DEP B Takeoff/Go-Around (TO/GA) Switches A Normal Antiskid Valve Landing Gear Actuation System ARR B Autopilot Backdrive Actuator System B Mode Control Panel Switches-A/P Engage Switches Autothrottle System A WES Autopilot Disconnect Warning Function 22

23 Sector Threat Airport Weather Weather Complexity Visual Condition Visibility Margin Ceiling Margin Ambient Light Crosswind Components Precipitation Convective Wx Issues 23

24 24 Airport ATC Functionality ATC English proficiency Approach Complexity Congestion ATC control quality Runway complexity Airport busy hour A/P Familiarity

25 25 Approach Complexity Special airport/runway Flying Complexity Runway Complexity Precision approach Airport terrain/obstacle Approach go-around rate Sunlight effective issues Grooved runway

26 Conclusion The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management. Why we need FORAS? 26

27 FORAS Promotion Program Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size. Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trustees The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.

28 FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q Internet Airline A Airline B Airline C Frontend Server Backend Workstation XML Frontend Server DB Inference Models Inference Models Inference Engine Inference Engine DB

29 Thank you! Q&A 29


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