1. Safety Risk Management Tools  EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation
Presented by Danny Ho Safety & Security Div. EVA Air Corporation Aug 30, 2013

2. Philosophy on Safety Risk Management
Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response.
Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable.
Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time.

3. Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation -Traditional Practice
Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM) + Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)

4. Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM
MCD
FSD

7. Post Flight Analysis WGBBS Daily Trend Analysis30 40 50 70 80 90
WGBBS
Daily Trend Analysis
Hazard Identification & Risk Management
FDM/ Aerobytes
(QAR)
Flight Data Animation
DFDR
A/C Performance Analysis

8. FDM/FOQA Event Review Event Review Meeting Statistics/Data base
Flight Data
Alert
Event
Daily
Report
FDM
Statistics/Data base
Detect
Event
Quarterly Report
Annual Report
Trend Analysis Report
Training Improvement &
Procedure Modification

9. Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis, what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ?
Before the flight!

10. Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation
Before the flight
During the flight
After the flight
FORAS
ACMS/AHM
FOQA/FDM

11. FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight.

12. Flight Operation Risk …
Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together
Fatigued crew with MRT
Non precision approach or ILS out of service
Strong cross wind
Low visibility with rain or snow
Thrust Reverser INOP
RWY is not grooved with percipitation
The complexity of approach procedure & runway configuration
Operating crew never operating into this airport before …

13. Project Background FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee
Think Tank of FSF
Sponsored by :
NASA
Prototype Developed
by : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel
FORAS Development
EVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel

14. System Introduction
FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations.
Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and aircraft’s status etc.
A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure.
A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool.
Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety.
Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation to ensure a safe operation.

15. FORAS Fuzzy inference engine
2. System Architecture
CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking System
FIS: Flight Information System
SMIS: Safety Management Information System
CRTS
FIS
SMIS
NOTAM
Weather
System
EVA Database
FORAS Fuzzy inference engine
FORAS CPI engine
FORAS Models

16. FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
DRV : Departure Risk Value
ALRV : Approach & Landing Risk Value
DRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.

17. Model structure DRV / ALRV Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146)
Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85)
Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11)
Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1)
Code
Description
TA01
Approach and Landing-related MEL Items
TC01
Experience pairing
TC02
Rank composition
TC03
English proficiency
TC04
Multi-nationalities
TC05_C
Airport recency
TC06_C
Special airport/runway
TC07_C
Numbers of previous visits
TC08_C
EVA type hours
TC09_C
Flying recency as PF
Rule Tables (Dep133;Arr166)
Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146)
Code
Description
P001_1
PILOT1 RANK
P002_1
PILOT1_GRADE
P003_1
PILOT1_NATIONALITY
P004_1
PILOT1_LASTTIME_AT_AIRPORT
P005_1
PILOT1_SECTORS_AT_RANK
P005_2
PILOT2_SECTORS_AT_RANK
P006_1
PILOT1_LIFE_TIME_HOURS
T value definition
Raw Data (D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)

18. Crew Functionality Pilot Fatigue Intercrew Pilot Experience
Communication
Pilot Experience
Pilot Fatigue
Transient Fatigue
Cumulative Fatigue
A/C Flying Experience
Airport
Familiarity
Experience
Pairing
Rank
Composition
Comm.
Proficiency
Airport recency
Special airport/runway
Numbers of previous visits

19. A/C Flying Experience Total Hours Sectors Flying recency as PF
EVA type hours
Pre-EVA hours
EVA hours
Type landing
Landing at rank
EVA landing

20. Transient Fatigue Pre-workload Pre-flight Rest In-flight fatigue
Previous sectors flown on this duty period
Duty hours since beginning
In-flight Rest
Duty hours of this flight
In-flight rest hours
Pre-flight circadian night
Pre-flight rest hours
Extra crew availability
Crew bunk availability

21. Cumulative Fatigue Work Amount Rest Previous Flying
Schedule stability
Rest recency
Rest amount
Pre-7 days workload
Pre-30 days workload
Pre-90 days workload

22. Aircraft Functionality DRV & ALRV-related MEL Fleet Items A330 : 64
B747 :
B777 :
MD11 :
B ER
DEP B
Takeoff/Go-Around (TO/GA) Switches A
Normal Antiskid Valve
Landing Gear Actuation System
ARR B
Autopilot Backdrive Actuator System B
Mode Control Panel Switches-A/P Engage Switches
Autothrottle System A
WES Autopilot Disconnect Warning Function

23. Sector Threat Airport Weather Weather Complexity Visual Condition
Convective Wx Issues
Precipitation
Crosswind Components
Ambient Light
Ceiling Margin
Visibility
Margin

24. ATC English proficiency
Airport
ATC Functionality
Approach Complexity
Congestion
ATC control quality
ATC English proficiency
A/P Familiarity
Runway complexity
Airport busy hour

25. Approach Complexity Flying Complexity Runway Complexity
Special airport/runway
Runway Complexity
Precision approach
Approach go-around rate
Airport terrain/obstacle
Grooved runway
Sunlight effective issues

26. Conclusion Why we need FORAS?
The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management.
A promotion program is under development.

27. FORAS Promotion Program
Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue
Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size.
Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trustees
The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.

28. FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013.
Internet
Airline A
Airline B
Airline C
Frontend Server
Backend Workstation
XML
Frontend Server DB
Inference
Models
Engine

29. Thank you! Q&A