Presentation on theme: "Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation"— Presentation transcript:
1 Safety Risk Management Tools EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation Presented by Danny Ho Safety & Security Div. EVA Air Corporation Aug 30, 2013
2 Philosophy on Safety Risk Management Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response.Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable.Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time.
3 Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation -Traditional Practice Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM) + Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)
9 Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis, what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ?Before the flight!
10 Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation Before the flightDuring the flightAfter the flightFORASACMS/AHMFOQA/FDM
11 FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight.
12 Flight Operation Risk … Newly check out Captain and F/O flying togetherFatigued crew with MRTNon precision approach or ILS out of serviceStrong cross windLow visibility with rain or snowThrust Reverser INOPRWY is not grooved with percipitationThe complexity of approach procedure & runway configurationOperating crew never operating into this airport before…
13 Project Background FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee Think Tank of FSFSponsored by :NASAPrototype Developedby : Dr. Michael HadjimichelFORAS DevelopmentEVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel
14 System IntroductionFORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations.Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and aircraft’s status etc.A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure.A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool.Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety.Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation to ensure a safe operation.
15 FORAS Fuzzy inference engine 2. System ArchitectureCRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking SystemFIS: Flight Information SystemSMIS: Safety Management Information SystemCRTSFISSMISNOTAMWeatherSystemEVA DatabaseFORAS Fuzzy inference engineFORAS CPI engineFORAS Models
16 FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System DRV : Departure Risk ValueALRV : Approach & Landing Risk ValueDRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.
17 Model structure DRV / ALRV Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146) Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85)Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11)Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1)CodeDescriptionTA01Approach and Landing-related MEL ItemsTC01Experience pairingTC02Rank compositionTC03English proficiencyTC04Multi-nationalitiesTC05_CAirport recencyTC06_CSpecial airport/runwayTC07_CNumbers of previous visitsTC08_CEVA type hoursTC09_CFlying recency as PFRule Tables (Dep133;Arr166)Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146)CodeDescriptionP001_1PILOT1 RANKP002_1PILOT1_GRADEP003_1PILOT1_NATIONALITYP004_1PILOT1_LASTTIME_AT_AIRPORTP005_1PILOT1_SECTORS_AT_RANKP005_2PILOT2_SECTORS_AT_RANKP006_1PILOT1_LIFE_TIME_HOURST value definitionRaw Data (D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)
18 Crew Functionality Pilot Fatigue Intercrew Pilot Experience CommunicationPilot ExperiencePilot FatigueTransient FatigueCumulative FatigueA/C Flying ExperienceAirportFamiliarityExperiencePairingRankCompositionComm.ProficiencyAirport recencySpecial airport/runwayNumbers of previous visits
19 A/C Flying Experience Total Hours Sectors Flying recency as PF EVA type hoursPre-EVA hoursEVA hoursType landingLanding at rankEVA landing
20 Transient Fatigue Pre-workload Pre-flight Rest In-flight fatigue Previous sectors flown on this duty periodDuty hours since beginningIn-flight RestDuty hours of this flightIn-flight rest hoursPre-flight circadian nightPre-flight rest hoursExtra crew availabilityCrew bunk availability
21 Cumulative Fatigue Work Amount Rest Previous Flying Schedule stabilityRest recencyRest amountPre-7 days workloadPre-30 days workloadPre-90 days workload
26 Conclusion Why we need FORAS? The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management.A promotion program is under development.
27 FORAS Promotion Program Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenueAirlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size.Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trusteesThe Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.
28 FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013. InternetAirline AAirline BAirline CFrontend ServerBackend WorkstationXMLFrontend ServerDBInferenceModelsEngine