1. Aviation and Climate Change Karsten Krause www.t-e.nu www.t-e.nu

2. International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation European Federation for Transport & Environment AustriaAustria BelgiumBelgium Czech & Slovak RepCzech & Slovak Rep DenmarkDenmark EstoniaEstonia FinlandFinland FranceFrance GermanyGermany GreeceGreece HungaryHungary NetherlandsNetherlands NorwayNorway PolandPoland PortugalPortugal RomaniaRomania SloveniaSlovenia SpainSpain SwedenSweden SwitzerlandSwitzerland UKUK International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation

3. Sustainable Transport ? 1.) Traffic Prevention 2.) Modal Shift 3.) Modal Optimisation

4. Contents of the Presentation Aviation GrowthAviation Growth Impact on Climate ChangeImpact on Climate Change International CooperationInternational Cooperation Unilateral ActionUnilateral Action ConclusionsConclusions

5. Aviation Growth Aviation Growth

6. Average Growth Rate of the Global Market: about 5 %Average Growth Rate of the Global Market: about 5 % Growth in Europe 2003: + 3,6 %Growth in Europe 2003: + 3,6 % Highest growth rates: leisure tripsHighest growth rates: leisure trips Growth of Low-cost airlines in Europe until 2010: + 20 % anuallyGrowth of Low-cost airlines in Europe until 2010: + 20 % anually Share of passengers that have been attracted to fly by low ticket prices: 59 %Share of passengers that have been attracted to fly by low ticket prices: 59 %

7. Subsidised Growth Subsidised Growth Tax exemptions for ticket sales, kerosene…Tax exemptions for ticket sales, kerosene… Public investment and financial supportPublic investment and financial support No internalisation of external costs of aviation (health impact, environment)No internalisation of external costs of aviation (health impact, environment) (…)(…)

8. Aviation and Climate Change 1.Aviation Growth 2.Impact on Climate Change 3.International Cooperation 4.Unilateral Action 5.Conclusions

9. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impact on Climate Change: Global warming from aviation 1992: 3.5 %Global warming from aviation 1992: 3.5 % Increase until 2050: 2.6 to 11 timesIncrease until 2050: 2.6 to 11 times Warming comes from: CO2 EmissionsCO2 Emissions Ozone formation (NOx)Ozone formation (NOx) ContrailsContrails Cirrus cloudsCirrus clouds

10. Formation of Contrails and Cirrus Clouds

11. Reduce Total Radiative Forcing from Aviation Avoiding air trafficAvoiding air traffic Optimising aircraft operation and air controlOptimising aircraft operation and air control Phasing-out old and inefficient aircraftsPhasing-out old and inefficient aircrafts Offsets in other sectorsOffsets in other sectors

12. Aviation and Climate Change 1.Aviation Growth 2.Impact on Climate Change 3.International Cooperation 4.Unilateral Action 5.Conclusions

13. ICAO and Climate Change Request from UNFCCC (1997 Kyoto Protocol) Article 2.2 requires Annex I States (States with reduction or limitation targets) to pursue limitation or reduction of greenhouse gases through cooperation with the ICAOArticle 2.2 requires Annex I States (States with reduction or limitation targets) to pursue limitation or reduction of greenhouse gases through cooperation with the ICAO Open Question: How to allocate international emissionsOpen Question: How to allocate international emissions ICAO reports regularly to the UNFCCCICAO reports regularly to the UNFCCC Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection CAEP reports are presented to the ICAO CouncilCAEP reports are presented to the ICAO Council Technical Discussions and Policy StatementsTechnical Discussions and Policy Statements Has no regulatory functionHas no regulatory function

14. CAEP/6 February 2004February 2004 Conclude 6 years (3+3) of work of 5 technical working groupsConclude 6 years (3+3) of work of 5 technical working groups Input to CAEP/6:study on CO2 emission trading guidance on CO2 charges guidance on voluntary agreementsInput to CAEP/6:study on CO2 emission trading guidance on CO2 charges guidance on voluntary agreements Future CAEP work:further studies and guidanceFuture CAEP work:further studies and guidance

15. Perspectives on CAEP/ICAO Progress CAEP does important work but the outcomes are not sufficientCAEP does important work but the outcomes are not sufficient SlooooowSlooooow Divergent interests within the organisationDivergent interests within the organisation ICAO is used as the standard excuse to postpone action to reduce aviation emission on European or national levelICAO is used as the standard excuse to postpone action to reduce aviation emission on European or national level

16. Way forward… The international aviation industry needs an emission redction targetThe international aviation industry needs an emission redction target ICAO needs a timeframe to propose a policy strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissionsICAO needs a timeframe to propose a policy strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions SBSTA should renew its efforts to resolve the question of allocationsSBSTA should renew its efforts to resolve the question of allocations Coexistence of international and unilateral policy instrumentsCoexistence of international and unilateral policy instruments

17. Aviation and Climate Change 1.Aviation Growth 2.Impact on Climate Change 3.International Cooperation 4.Unilateral Action 5.Conclusions

18. Key Player: The European Union Key Player: The European Union EUs commitment reduce greenhouse gas emissionsEUs commitment reduce greenhouse gas emissions EU should play a stronger role in ICAOEU should play a stronger role in ICAO EU has to phase-out aviation subsidiesEU has to phase-out aviation subsidies EU could introduce a European aviation charge or an emission trading schemeEU could introduce a European aviation charge or an emission trading scheme

19. European Environmental Aviation Charge Various studies have proved the operability of a charge (i.e. emission per kilometre)Various studies have proved the operability of a charge (i.e. emission per kilometre) Possible to extend it to outside Europe, based on bilateral agreementsPossible to extend it to outside Europe, based on bilateral agreements Focus should be on all greenhouse gas emissionsFocus should be on all greenhouse gas emissions European Commission promised a Directive proposal by 2001European Commission promised a Directive proposal by 2001

20. European Aviation Emission Trading European CO2 trading for stationary sources: warm-up phase:2005 – 2007 Kyoto phase 2008 – 2012European CO2 trading for stationary sources: warm-up phase:2005 – 2007 Kyoto phase 2008 – 2012 Review of the trading directive by 31 December 2004: Opportunity to integrate aviation emissionsReview of the trading directive by 31 December 2004: Opportunity to integrate aviation emissions Focus on all greenhouse gas emissionsFocus on all greenhouse gas emissions Cap and trade approachCap and trade approach

21. Conclusion …..Aviation needs an absolute target for its greenhouse gas emissions …..CAEP requires a clear indication, by when the work on policy instruments has to be finalised. ….. SBSTA should renew its efforts to resolve the issue of allocation of emissions from bunker fuels ….. Emission trading and emission charges could be introduced. The European Union and individual states must not wait on CAEP or ICAO

22. Thank you for your attention ! further information: www.t-e.nu or karsten.krause@t-e.nu www.t-e.nu karsten.krause@t-e.nu