1. Experian, 2007 China: Economic Powerhouse Matthew Sherwood Senior Global Economist Experian Business Strategies matthew.sherwood@uk.experian.com

2. Experian, 2007 Presentation overview China today China in 2015 and beyond Implications for tourism Risks Economic downturns Politics Demographics

3. Experian, 2007 Some key facts Worlds fourth largest economy Passes Germany this year Passes Japan in 2012 Passes USA in 20?? Impact on the world Stronger growth Higher oil prices Slower wage rises Cheaper clothes, sofas, etc. Did you know? Accounts for only 12% of global manufacturing Nearly half live on equivalent of $2 a day Runs trade deficits with most countries

4. Experian, 2007 Another golden age of globalisation GDP, % change Source: IMF, Experian Ltd. * USA, Japan and Eurozone from 2007

5. Experian, 2007 Collectively rich, individually poor GDP per head US$ 000 US$ GDP in 2006 ($ trn)

6. Experian, 2007 GDP by province

7. Experian, 2007 Provinces are countries

8. Experian, 2007 GDP per head by province

9. Experian, 2007 Developments in tourism, 2000-05 Booming tourism industry Foreign visitors have doubled Number of travel agencies up by two-thirds Employment up by 50% Number of tourist hotels up by 4% Visitor characteristics Half from Asia Britons lead W Europe 500,000 visits in 05

10. Experian, 2007 Outbound tourism today Numbers have trebled Where are they going? Hong Kong Korea Rest of Asia Traveller characteristics Shopping trips Otherwise low-spend Suburban hotels Cheap meals

11. Experian, 2007 Chinese tourists to the UK Less than 1% visit the UK Account for < 1% of UK visitors, nights and spend Similar figures for Scotland Around 7,000 visits a year About 33,000 nights Spend £4m Source: VisitBritain

12. Experian, 2007 China powers ahead GDP, % change

13. Experian, 2007 China: 2015 and beyond Incomes up twofold Still only one-tenth of US levels Growing disparities Rich v poor Rural v urban Politics Domestic unrest? Foreign relations Demographics One-child policy begins to bite Does China grow rich before it grows old?

14. Experian, 2007 Av annual growth, 2005-2015

15. Experian, 2007 Booming cities

16. Experian, 2007 Summary China today: a poor economic power China in 2015 and beyond: starting to rival US Implications for tourism: take the long view Risks Growth: does it remain fast enough? Politics: social unrest? Demographics: rapid aging v rapid growth

17. Experian, 2007 Experian Business Strategies www.business-strategies.co.uk