Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

AFTER THE STORM (s): Average sustained growth, with risks Ken Goldstein WWW.CONFERENCE-BOARD.ORG.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "AFTER THE STORM (s): Average sustained growth, with risks Ken Goldstein WWW.CONFERENCE-BOARD.ORG."— Presentation transcript:

1 AFTER THE STORM (s): Average sustained growth, with risks Ken Goldstein

2 Page:2 Overview: Global economy edging lower (3.7% in ’06 after 4.4% in ’05 and 5.1% in ’04). Longer-term prospect is closer to 3%, only partly related to oil shock. US economy remains the linchpin. Euro strength could be recovering; Japan finally on board; China cooling off Higher energy costs plus storms weaken domestic growth. Recovery by mid ‘06. Back to trend by 2nd half of ‘06.

3 Page:3 A HEALTHY GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTINUES US Euro Zone Japan Other* Developing Asia (ex. India and China) India China Latin America Middle East Africa Central and Eastern Europe Other** World total

4 Page:4 TREND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IS SLOWER NOW WORLD PRODUCTIVITY1.6%1.1%2.2%1.8% USA1.8%1.3%2.3%2.1% EURO ZONE1.7%2.0%1.3%0.8% JAPAN1.1%0.9%1.4%1.5% OECD (Other)1.8%1.0%2.5%1.6% NON-OECD2.1%1.5%2.7%3.7% Source: The Conference Board GDP PER EMPLOYEE

5 Page:5 HOURS WORKED SLOWER NOW, BUT? WORLD1.4%1.3%1.5%1.4% USA1.6%1.3%1.9%-0.4% EUROPE0.1%-0.8%1.1%0.4% JAPAN-0.6%-0.4%-0.9% OECD OTHERS1.9%2.1%1.8%0.8% NON – OECD (workers)1.5% 1.6% Source: The Conference Board HOURS WORKED

6 Page:6 It’s not just the domestic trend Global growth is slowing Source: The Conference Board Note: Shaded areas represent U.S. recessions

7 Page:7 All regions are weakening simultaneously Source: The Conference Board Note: Shaded areas represent U.S. recessions

8 Page:8 Moderate Growth Even in Germany THE CONFERENCE BOARD’S LEADING ECONOMIC INDEXES

9 Page:9 The industrial core takes the hit Note: Shaded areas represent U.S. recessions Sources: FRB, The Conference Board

10 Page:10 Slower Growth and Inflation (not oil or Katrina) Make Consumers Worry About Jobs

11 Page:11 Environment Weakened And Expectations Eroded

12 Page:12 Home Values Still Rising

13 Page:13 Whacky Oil Will Come Back to Balance Note; Shaded areas represent U.S. recessions Sources; EAI, The Conference Board

14 Page:14 Risk: Financial Imbalances

15 Page:15 Dollar on strengthening trend…

16 Page:16 …as well as against the yen

17 Page:17 Katrina and Energy prices shocks weaken consumer spending Sources: BEA, The Conference Board

18 Page:18 Shocks weaken consumer spending, Investment ? Sources: BEA, The Conference Board

19 Page:19 After the storm(s)

20 Page:20 WHAT IF WAGES RISE AS PRODUCTIVITY SLOWS

21 Page:21 COSTS WOULD RISE BUT STILL NOT MUCH PRICING POWER

22 Page:22 RECIPE FOR LESS PROFIT (AND LESS GROWTH?)

23 Page:23 LABOR FORCE GROWTH HUGE IN EMERGING WORLD

24 Page:24 AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO


Download ppt "AFTER THE STORM (s): Average sustained growth, with risks Ken Goldstein WWW.CONFERENCE-BOARD.ORG."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google