1. - European CDM - To benefit from the animation settings contained within this presentation we suggest you view using the slide show option. To start the show click View - Slide Show. next page Substitution on Cancellation

2. - European CDM - Substitution on Cancellation In cases of severe loss of capacity at an airport, Substitution on Cancellation would help airlines to protect their schedules while temporarily reducing demand for that airport to ease the disruption and reduce delays. next page The Substitution on Cancellation process is proposed as an enhancement to the current European Air Traffic Flow Management system. next step Collaborative Decision Making Collaborative Decision Making Visit the European CDM website at www.euro-cdm.org for more information The following pages illustrate how...

3. next step Introduction: Flow Management by CFMU Where forecast demand for an area of airspace exceeds the available capacity, Europes Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU) creates a regulation. A flight scheduled to pass through a regulation is assigned a slot to constrain the time at which it reaches that busy area. In this way, CFMU ensures that the airspace is not overloaded with traffic. next page If the airports capacity is severely reduced, the arrival regulation is likely to be the Most Penalising Regulation for all arriving flights. On occasions, an airports movements capacity may be reduced to well below its normal operating capacity, for example by fog or by an incident on a runway or taxiway. In order to prevent a large build-up of arriving traffic waiting to land, CFMU will create a regulation, assigning slots to all flights planning to land at the airport. The next slide gives an example of large delays building up at a capacity-reduced airport... If a flight is scheduled to pass through more than one regulation, each regulation will, in general, require a different take-off slot. The regulation that requires the latest take-off time is termed the Most Penalising Regulation (because it delays the flight the most). It is the most congested area of airspace that flight passes through, and so takes precedence over the others in setting the CFMU slot. So a flights take-off slot is determined by its Most Penalising Regulation.

4. next step A flight scheduled to arrive at: 08:00 will get an arrival slot of 09:00, 09:00 will get an arrival slot of 11:00. next step Under normal operating conditions, our example Airport Airport operations are disrupted, for example by fog, Assuming the airport planned to operate at capacity, there is now an over-demand of 12 arrivals per hour. The flights scheduled to arrive in a single hour now need two hours to arrive. Large delays quickly build up. and arrivals capacity is reduced by 50% to only next page next step An example of a capacity-reduced airport... 07:00FLT001 07:02FLT002 07:05FLT003 07:08FLT004 07:10FLT005 07:13FLT006 07:15FLT007 07:18FLT008 07:20FLT009 07:22FLT010 07:25FLT011 07:28FLT012 07:30FLT013 07:32FLT014 07:35FLT015 07:37FLT016 07:40FLT017 07:43FLT018 07:45FLT019 07:48FLT020 07:50FLT021 07:53FLT022 07:55FLT023 07:57FLT024 08:00FLT025 07:00 07:05 07:10 07:15 07:20 07:25 07:30 07:35 07:40 07:45 07:50 07:55 08:00 Delays persist even after the airport returns to full capacity because there is a backlog of delayed flights. This backlog will only reduce when there is spare arrival capacity compared with the planned number of arrivals - perhaps during the quieter afternoon period. arrivals capacity of 24 aircraft per hour 12 per hour has an 12 aircraft per hour (one every 5 minutes, on average).

5. next step … on the flight into the disrupted airport … and again awaiting departure of the return flight. Cancellation Cancelling flights also helps Air Traffic Services and the Airport: the best way to reduce the period of disruption resulting from the loss of capacity is to reduce the number of flights going to that airport while the problem remains, and until the backlog of delayed flights is cleared. next page In the face of these severe delays, airlines may chose to cancel flights to help protect their schedules. Cancelling a flight releases an aircraft and crew that would have been delayed When a flight is cancelled, its CFMU slot is released to be used by the next flight in the slot queue... In our example, cancellation of 6 flights would reduce delays for subsequent flights by a total of 30 minutes. In our example, cancellation of 6 flights could mean that the backlog is cleared during the quieter afternoon period, instead of delays persisting into the busy evening period. In spite of this, the current European Flow Management system may effectively discourage airlines from cancelling flights in a timely manner. The next slide illustrates how... However, if a cancellation is made at the last minute, it may be too late for another flight to take the released slot. As a result, the scarce arrivals capacity may actually be wasted, with no reduction in delays. …and all subsequent flights in the queue are brought forward one place to close the gap.

6. next step flight XX001… next step The original arrivals schedule at our example airport... STA = Scheduled Time of Arrival XX is likely to lose passengers to Airline YY which can offer an arrival from LHR at 11:05 passengers from the cancelled XX001, and also from the delayed XX002. next page next step … and the delayed slots: CFMU slot time at arrival regulation FlightOriginSTA AB123 CDG09:00 XX001 LHR09:00 CD234 FRA09:03 YY001 LHR09:05 EF345 CDG09:05 GH456 BHX10:55 XX002 LHR11:00 YY002 LHR11:00 IJ567 BRU10:55 KL678 AMS12:00 XX231 CDG12:00 MN789 ZRH12:04 OP890 BRU16:00 XX003 LHR16:00 QR901 DUB16:02 CFMU Arrival Slot Time 10:55 11:00 11:05 11:10 11:15 13:55 14:00 14:05 14:10 15:25 15:30 15:35 18:25 18:30 18:35 cancelled Under todays Flow Management System, the first airline to cancel a flight is likely to see its passengers (and hence revenue) transfer to the rival airlines flight. The cancellation just releases a slot that will help reduce delay for that rival flight. As a result, Airlines XX and YY may each wait until the last minute to cancel their flights, hoping that the other will cancel instead. Note that Airlines XX and YY both have flights from the same departure airport (LHR) at similar times. 13:50 13:55 14:00 14:05 15:20 15:25 15:30 18:20 18:25 18:30 New Slot Time How the current Flow Management system can discourage cancellations used by the next flight in the slot queue... next step …and all subsequent flights in the queue are brought forward one place and so get a slot 5 minutes earlier. its CFMU slot is released to be 11:00 11:05 11:10 next step For example:If Airline XX cancels its Now Airline XXs first arrival from LHR will be at 13:55.

7. next step How Substitution on Cancellation helps Re-running the previous scenario under Substitution on Cancellation... next page next step Substitution on Cancellation Substitution on Cancellation encourages timely cancellation of flights by allowing the cancelling airline to benefit directly from the released slot. 4The airline is encouraged to cancel flights because it sees direct benefit from doing so and it does not see the released slot going immediately to benefit a rival! This means that an airline that cancels a flight can re-use the released slot, to reduce the delay to another of its flights. This is achieved by a change in the slot allocation rules in cases of severe disruption at an airport. Under Substitution on Cancellation, each slot is temporarily assigned to the airline whose flight occupies it. 4Airlines with several flights arriving at the airport are given more control in their schedule management, enabling them to use cancellation to best effect. Substitution on Cancellation The Substitution on Cancellation slot allocation rules can apply only in cases of severe disruption at an airport, because in that case the arrivals regulation is the Most Penalising Regulation for all arriving flights (it is much more severe than other regulations). Therefore, arriving flights can swap slots with very little risk of other regions of airspace becoming overloaded as a result.

8. 18:30 next step 11:00 Under Substitution on Cancellation... Each slot is temporarily assigned to the airline whose flight occupies it. If Airline XX cancels XX001 it can re-use the slot for an on-time arrival of XX002. The passengers of XX001 are not delayed any further by the cancellation of their flight. Furthermore, Airline XX can now use its freed 14:00 slot to help its delayed flight XX231, scheduled for 12:00 arrival from another airport. That frees the 15:30 slot, but Airline XX cannot use it, as this is before the scheduled time of its next arrival. As in today's system, each released slot means subsequent flights slots are advanced by a few minutes. The 15:30 slot is therefore released back into the pool. next step next page cancelled Flight Origin STA CFMU Arrival Slot Time AB123 CDG09:00 XX001 LHR09:00 CD234 FRA09:03 YY001 LHR09:05 EF345 CDG09:05 GH456 BHX10:55 XX002 LHR11:00 YY002 LHR11:00 IJ567 BRU10:55 KL678 AMS12:00 XX231 CDG12:00 MN789 ZRH12:04 OP890 BRU15:00 XX003 LHR15:00 QR901 DUB15:02 10:55 11:00 11:05 11:10 11:15 13:55 14:00 14:05 14:10 15:25 15:30 15:35 18:25 18:30 18:35 New Slot Time 14:00 Now Airline XX can transfer passengers from the cancelled XX001 to XX002, running that flight full. next step 15:30 18:25 18:20 next step

9. Conclusion Cancelling one early flight meant that Airline XX could significantly reduce the disruption to the rest of its daily schedule. Delays will be reduced for other flights at the disrupted airport. Substitution on Cancellation Under Substitution on Cancellation, Airlines with several flights arriving at the disrupted airport will be able to use cancellation to better manage their schedules. next page next step Substitution on Cancellation Substitution on Cancellation left Airline XX in a better position after cancelling its flight than the current Flow Management system would have. è Passengers of flight XX231 from CDG had delay reduced by 1½ hours. è Passengers of flight XX002 had delay reduced by 3 hours. more flights are cancelled, This direct benefit to the cancelling airline will mean that: cancellations are declared earlier, in time for released slots to be re-used. And hence... Recovery from the disruption will be faster, benefiting Airport, Air Traffic Services and user airlines alike. next step

10. Notes Substitutions could also be negotiated between the Operations Centres of different airlines, with the cancelling airline nominating another flight to benefit from its freed slot. Should substitutions between different airlines allowed? CDM Substitution on Cancellation As for all applications of CDM, participants will need to agree rules and procedures to ensure that Substitution on Cancellation brings optimum benefit. next step Is only one single substitution allowed, or may the cancelling airline try to re-use the slots released by each substitution (as was shown in the example)? Substitution on Cancellation Substitution on Cancellation offers a way of improving todays Flow Management system in cases of severe disruption at an airport. - End of Presentation - next step For example: it encourages courses of action that are of mutual benefit to several parties (cancelling flights benefits self and other airlines, Airport and Air Traffic Services); It has already been applied successfully in the US. Substitution on CancellationCollaborative Decision Making Substitution on Cancellation is a good example of Collaborative Decision Making because: it puts the decision in the hands of the organisation best placed to make it (Airline Ops decides which of its flights should be cancelled to best manage its schedule).