1. 1 of 16 REPLICATING THE COMPLEX REALITY OF 21 ST CENTURY CRISIS AND COMBAT OPERATIONS Systematically identifying the training needs of the 21 st Century senior tactical and operational headquarters within a multinational/coalition force structure and focusing future modeling and simulation efforts on identified shortfalls.

2. 2 of 16 OUTLINE Introduction Defining 21 st Century Warfare Trends – Identifying the beast –Sources –Common threads Exercise Design – Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) –Basic exercise design concepts and framework –Injecting reality into exercises –Too Hard vs. Not Possible Finding Solutions to the Not (yet) Possible – The way ahead –Technological solutions –Non-technological solutions Conclusion & Questions

3. 3 of 16 AUTHORS BACKGROUND Commissioned as an Armor Officer in the US Army Now a US Army FA57 – Simulations Operations Officer Recent Assignments/Experience –2003-2004: Operations Officer, Korea Battle Simulation Centre –2004-2006: G3/G5 Staff Officer, 101 st Airborne Division G5 Plans/Exercise Officer; planned four divisional pre-Operations Iraqi Freedom G5 Plans Officer (Iraq) –Staff Officer, Provincial Reconstruction Team-Ninewa (Iraq) –Commandant, Forward Tactical Command Post (Iraq) –2006-2008: Political-Military Experimentation Officer (SACT) Operations & Admin Officer, HQ ISAF Directorate of Afghan National Army Training & Equipment Support (DATES) (Afghanistan) Chief, Civil-Military Fusion Centre (Forward Team), HQ ISAF CJ9 Staff (Afghanistan) Deputy Project Director, Civil-Military Fusion Centre, HQ SACT

4. 4 of 16 21 st CENTURY WARFARE TRENDS Identifying the beast PRIMARY SOURCES Books –The Sling and The Stone (2006) –The Beginners Guide to Nation-Building (2007) –The Pentagons New Map (2004) Papers & Periodicals –Land Warfare in the 21 st Century (1993) –Environmental Scan (2006) –Afghanistan: Exploring the Dynamics of Sociopolitical Strife and the Persistence of the Insurgency (2008) –Post-Modern Challenges for Modern Warriors (2007) –An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security Strategy (2003) –Che Guevara and Guerrilla Warfare: Training for Todays Nonlinear Battlefields (2001) –Conflict Between and Within States (2000) –New Paradigms for 21 st Century Conflict (2007) –Irregular Warfare Leadership in the 21 st Century (2007) –Cultural Awareness and Irregular Warfare: French Army Experience in Africa (2006) –Unrestricted Warfare (1999)

5. 5 of 16 21 st CENTURY WARFARE TRENDS Identifying the beast Common threads: –Decline of state vs. state conflicts Can (and will still) happen, but less prevalent May see a resurgence in special cases (e.g. separatist reintegration?) –Limited resource competition Current outlook (up to 2015) Basic resources = water, food, wealth Future outlook (beyond 2030) Basic resources + energy, markets, habitat –Expanding radicalism and/or fundamentalism Religious theology Political ideology Economic practices (capitalism, protectionism, etc.) As exacerbated by: –Established state dissolution/break-up and reformation/reestablishment –Demographic trends/shifts Developed vs. underdeveloped world Urban growth vs. rural decline –Global environmental shifts (and/or global climate change) –Fringe-area overlap Creates an environment of brutal, violent and Intimate Warfare*

6. 6 of 16 GENERIC EXERCISE DESIGN Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) Training Objectives Training Audience Replicated Environment & Scenario –Physical Geography (Terrain) –Cultural Geography (People) –Time (tempo and scale) –External Influences Exercise Classification Required Networks Facilities –Single Site –Multiple Sites (distributed) Resources Available Method(s) and Model(s) to incorporate

7. 7 of 16 GENERIC EXERCISE DESIGN Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) Training Objectives Training Audience Replicated Environment & Scenario –Physical Geography (Terrain) –Cultural Geography (People) –Time (tempo and scale) –External Influences Exercise Classification Required Networks Facilities –Single Site –Multiple Sites (distributed) Resources Available Method(s) and Model(s) WHAT is to be trained: - Current operation tracking - Decision-making processes - Planning processes - Staff coordination - Rehearsal WHO is to be trained: - Commanders - Primary staff officers - Supporting staff - Multiple command echelons WHO needs to be replicated: - RED and BLUE forces - GREEN and GREY forces - Local national actors/agents - International actors/agents Always the first questions in designing any exercise

8. 8 of 16 GENERIC EXERCISE DESIGN Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) Training Objectives Training Audience Replicated Environment & Scenario –Physical Geography (Terrain) –Cultural Geography (People) –Time (tempo and scale) –External Influences Exercise Classification Required Networks Facilities –Single Site –Multiple Sites (distributed) Resources Available Method(s) and Model(s) WHERE does the scenario occur: - Natural physical landforms - Urban Landscape - Physical structures - Physical infrastructure - Human-based cultural terrain - Political landscape(s) - Ethnic/Tribal landscape(s) WHEN does the scenario occur: - Daylight / Night - Season and weather - Urban rhythms Traffic Holidays Work Special events - Day-to-day activity - Longer-term consequences WHAT / WHO influence factors or create events from the outside

9. 9 of 16 DRAFT OIF 05-06 TRAINING OBJECTIVES (US Army Division Headquarters) Validate the operational capabilities of the division and its subordinate brigades during major combat operations (MCO) and stability operations/support operations (SOSO). Validate the collaborative digital connectivity between higher echelon and subordinate units Integrate the full array of effects targeting into daily operations Integrate multiple intelligence assets and exploit and disseminate threat information Execute operations in open and complex terrain, in an environment consisting of noncombatants, insurgents, and coalition security forces Execute multiple, distributed operations throughout the depth and breadth of the divisions battlespace and across the full spectrum of operations Validate division and supported brigade sustainment by its attached support brigade Validate the functions of the divisional command posts and TTPs for their interaction with MNC-I, Coalition Forces, Iraqi Security Forces, and subordinate brigades Refine the divisions battlefield organization and management, particularly in the separation, integration, and cooperation with ISF organizations in regard to training / mentoring requirements and destruction of AIF associated with the security lines of operations Refine processes and understanding of how to best integrate CMATT/CPATT, sustainment contractors, and other special enablers operations and activities into division operations Define and refine clearance of fires/airspace/maneuver corridors with ISF that involve inter and cross faith (i.e. Sunni/Shia/Christian) engagements requiring MoD and MoI involvement and approval Text in BLUE later dropped – …too hard to replicate…

10. 10 of 16 GENERIC EXERCISE DESIGN Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) Training Objectives Training Audience Replicated Environment & Scenario –Physical Geography (Terrain) –Cultural Geography (People) –Time (tempo and scale) –External Influences Exercise Classification Required Networks Facilities –Single Site –Multiple Sites (distributed) Resources Available Method(s) and Model(s) UNCLASSIFIED vs. CLASSIFIED: - BOTH exist in the real world - Often multiple-classified environments exist - Overclassification reduces efficiency, situational awareness, and trust (internally/externally) - Must replicate multiple networks with multiple classifications - Computer Networks (inc. NU) - Phone - VoIP - Radio / Satellite - Any Specialised systems SOCIAL NETWORKS must be replicated

11. 11 of 16 GENERIC EXERCISE DESIGN Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) Training Objectives Training Audience Replicated Environment & Scenario –Physical Geography (Terrain) –Cultural Geography (People) –Time (tempo and scale) –External Influences Exercise Classification Required Networks Facilities –Single Site –Multiple Sites (distributed) Resources Available Method(s) and Model(s) METHOD(S): - Event-driven structure - Entity/Agent-based structure - Free-play or scripted - Seminar or Chalk Talk - Computer Assisted Exercise MODEL(S): - What BEST SUPPORTS the training objectives and training audience - Technology cannot outweigh training benefit/objectives LAST to determine

12. 12 of 16 EXERCISE DIRECTOR SENIOR CONTROLLER & EXERCISE CONTROL HICON TECHNICAL MGT SITE MGT OBSERVERS & EXPERIMENTORS RED CELLBLUE CELLGREEN CELLGREY CELL ACTIVE OPPOSITION - Traditional Enemy Army - Loyalists / Insurgents - Organized Criminal Groups ACTIVE (LOYAL) ALLIES - National Army/Police - National Gvmt Agencies ACTIVE TRUE NEUTRALS - Local Populace - Local Leaders (Political & Tribal) TRAINER CELL SIMULATION CONTROL MSEL CELL TRAINING AUDIENCE GENERIC EXERCISE ENVIRONMENT Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) FRIENDLY FORCES - Semi-autonomous - Often called LOCON - Direct relationship to TA

13. 13 of 16 GENERIC EXERCISE ENVIRONMENT Where theory and reality meet (and clash?) RED CELL Variable Scale REDFOR Active Hostile (RED) to Passive Hostile (PINK) Converse applies Happens per Exercise Director order - or - Semi-Autonomous function GREY CELL Variable Scale GREYFOR True Neutral to Leaning Friendly/Hostile GREY can (over time) turn BLUE or GREEN GREY can (over time) turn PINK or RED Converse applies Happens per Exercise Director order - or - semi-autonomous function Include semi-autonomous IO/GO/NGO play as UNCLAS inputs into exercise BLUE CELL & GREEN CELL Semi-autonomous play Direct input to Training Audience Account for multi-level classification Remote location National-level influences ? EXERCISE ENVIRONMENT

14. 14 of 16 RESTATED: Not all RED entities are equal Not all GREY entities are equal Account for human characteristics of: Individuals/Entities Organisations Population clusters/centres Time matters Rhythms (esp. URBAN rhythms) Tempo and Duration Actions-over-Time matter (adding consequence modeling) SOLVING THE NOT (YET) POSSIBLE The way ahead Technological Solutions –Multiple and changeable sides with tailorable parameters –Key actors / agents interjection –Interactive infrastructures and systems Sewer / Trash Electricity Water Traffic –Social Network development and integration –Time factors: Urban rhythms Longer-term consequences Non-technological Solutions –Social Network(s) incorporated into scenario and environment –More detail into who needs to be replicated –Involve external (unclassified) input into exercise play

15. 15 of 16 CONCLUSION 21 st Century Warfare Trends –Intimate Warfare concept –Human Exercise Design –What works well –What does not work well –Areas needing improvement Solving the Not (Yet) Possible –Three areas requiring research focus and development –Changeable perception attributes –Urban centre infrastructure effects and interdepenencies –Time – rhythms and consequences

16. 16 of 16 QUESTIONS OF-4/LTC Brandon Herl (USA A) brandon.herl@act.nato.int (NATO UNCLAS at ACT) NCN +60 555-4244 Commercial (USA): 757-747-4244