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Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List Stan Hoge and Bill Iwig National Agricultural Statistics Service.

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Presentation on theme: "Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List Stan Hoge and Bill Iwig National Agricultural Statistics Service."— Presentation transcript:

1 Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List Stan Hoge and Bill Iwig National Agricultural Statistics Service

2 Overview Background List Development Cycle 2002 Census Coverage Results Census Coverage Goals Steps to Meet Established Goals List Building Results Suggestions for the 2012 CML

3 Background NASS has responsibility for an annual agricultural survey program and the Census of Agriculture every five years. The NASS list frame supports both programs requiring: Adequate production coverage and accurate control data for the survey programs. Adequate farm coverage for the census. List development is an on-going process involving adding new records and updating current records.

4 List Development Cycle New List Sources New List Sources Annual Survey Program Record Linkage Screen for Potential Farms Updates and Maintenance Updated List Frame (active, inactive and potential farm records) Census Mail List

5 2002 Census Coverage Results CategoryTotal Percent from Coverage Adjustment All Farms2,128,98217.90 Land in Farms (acres)938,279,0562.40 Farms by Value of Sales: Less than $1,000570,91932.77 $1,000 to $2,499255,63933.92 $2,500 to $4,999213,32615.46 $5,000 to $9,999223,16811.45

6 2002 Census Coverage Results Minority GroupNo. Farms Percent from Coverage Adjustment Female237,81924.18 Hispanic50,59243.14 Am. Indian or Alaska Native15,49420.19 Asian6,28518.60 Black/African Am.29,09043.87 Native Hawaiian98318.01 More than one race7,66122.88

7 2002 Census Coverage Results Coverage Adjustment of Total Number of Farms

8 Census Coverage Goals Increase minority farm coverage from 68% to 73%. Maintain coverage of farms with $50,000 or more in agricultural sales at 95%. Reach at least 75% coverage of all farms for all States. Set a Target CML Size = 3.1 million records.

9 CML Size vs. Farm Coverage

10 Steps to Meet Established Goals Aggressive list-building guided by annual Field Office (FO) list-building plans. Outreach to minority and socially disadvantaged farm operators. Introduction of the Agricultural Identification Survey (AIS). Improvements to record-linkage processing. Set State level target CMLs.

11 Census List Development by Source, 2002 and 2007 Source New Adds (Million) Reactivated Criteria (Million) 1998-20022003-20071998-20022003-2007 FTI/FSA/InfoUSA.526.678.268.370 State Sources.4521.098.051.047 Total.9871.776.319.417

12 Minority Counts (U.S.) List Control vs. Census Adjusted Type 2002 Census January 2005 June 2007% Increase Am Indian15,49410,99344,683306 Asian8,3755,1488,16059 Black/African American 29,09014,77043,871197 Female237,819163,755333,435104 More than one race 7,6617,39421,092185 Native Hawaiian 9831,4813,384129 Hispanic50,59221,91444,518103

13 Agriculture Identification Survey Results (Screener for Potential Farms) Survey PeriodTotal Mailed In-Scope 1/ Out of Scope Not Returned Fall 2004171,71732,83318,542110,990 Spring 2005102,72231,11217,48134,257 Fall 2005133,17947,54019,04449,902 Spring 2006260,66351,26032,734108,053 Fall 20061,065,311472,728157,990361,558 Total1,733,592635,473245,791664,760 1/ Response with data and available for CML

14 Set State-level CML Targets Allocation of U.S. Target CML (3.1 million). Based on State coverage history, population distribution and current farm number estimates. Provided guide to FOs in managing list building. Expect approximately 3.4 million available records so plan to trim marginal records for some States. Potential farm records with probable bad addresses Records from poor quality list sources FO Input through CML Target Evaluation and Trim Plans Records identified by Classification And Regression Trees Model (CART), based on percent active on survey frame.

15 Suggestions for the 2012 CML Analyze the effectiveness of available list sources. Analyze the effectiveness of the AIS and the entire Census list-building process. Provide firmer and earlier guidance to the FOs on list-building expectations. Increase automation of record linkage as appropriate.

16 END

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