1. Resource savings and CO 2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO 2 reduction target in 2020 Dr. Bärbel Birnstengel Madrid, 26 May 2011

2. © 2011 Prognos AG Meet the future challenges We are all in the same boat... 2 Resource consumption leading to resource scarcity Global climate change Increasing waste volumes and changing composition - growing worldwide, details unknown - - much faster, regionally unbalanced- - strain on environment -

3. © 2011 Prognos AG EU 27 in 2008: 2.37 Bt of waste treated... 3 Source: Eurostat 49% of waste is still landfilled 3% energy recovery 2% incineration 46% Other treatment (of these: 55% minerals) secondary resources

4. © 2011 Prognos AG 4 High resource potential Example: paper & cardboard (reference year 2006) … … 80.4 Mt share recovered share disposed off range of share recovered within EU27 legend: CO 2 reduction recovery rate 67% 44 Mt CO 2 equ. Source: European atlas of secondary raw materials 2006 – Edition 2009 Prognos AG

5. © 2011 Prognos AG … has only partly been used so far (2006)... 5 Source: European atlas of secondary raw materials 2006 – Edition 2009 Prognos AG Ø 49%

6. © 2011 Prognos AG 6 glass paper & cardboard plastics iron &steel aluminium copper waste wood textiles biodegradable waste rubber & tyres solid fuel waste remaining MSW CO 2 study (2008) Methodology allocation of waste codes to 11 waste streams that have a high resource substitution potential + remaining municipal solid waste estimation of the generated waste stream specific amounts from mixed waste fractions development of four scenarios mainly for the development of waste management measures amounts and composition as of 2004 system boundaries: generation - collection - sorting - further treatment - secondary raw material EU 27 energy mix identification of resource saving potential and possible contribution to CO 2 reduction targets allocation of waste codes to 11 waste streams that have a high resource substitution potential + remaining municipal solid waste estimation of the generated waste stream specific amounts from mixed waste fractions development of four scenarios mainly for the development of waste management measures amounts and composition as of 2004 system boundaries: generation - collection - sorting - further treatment - secondary raw material EU 27 energy mix identification of resource saving potential and possible contribution to CO 2 reduction targets

7. © 2011 Prognos AG The Study was sponsored by... 7 Bundesverband Sekundärrohstoffe und Entsorgung e.V. Bundesvereinigung Deutscher Stahlrecycling- und Entsorgungsunternehmen e.V. Dutch Waste Management Association MRF: Dutch Steel Recycling Association tecpol – Technologieentwicklungs GmbH für ökoeffiziente Polymerverwertung FIR: Fédération Internationale du Recyclage ETRMA: European Tyre & Rubber Manufacturers' Association Bundesvereinigung Recycling Baustoffe ERFO: European Recovered Fuel Association CEWEP: Confederation of European Waste-to-Energy plants Dutch Construction and Demolition Waste Association... an unique European coalition of Waste Management Organisations

8. © 2011 Prognos AG Methodology (reference year 2004) 8 - handout only - Scenario 1: Business as Usual Status quo development only current legislation, no new Waste Framework Directive Status quo development only current legislation, no new Waste Framework Directive Scenario 3: Strict & Ambitious EU Legislation Optimized development WFD – waste hierarchy as general rule higher recycling targets as for scenario 2 (min. 60% MSW / 80% C&D) ban on landfill for calorific fractions and biowaste Optimized development WFD – waste hierarchy as general rule higher recycling targets as for scenario 2 (min. 60% MSW / 80% C&D) ban on landfill for calorific fractions and biowaste Scenario 2: Modernised EU Waste Framework Further development revised Waste Framework Directive (R1- status for MSW incineration) recycling targets for MSW (min. 50%) and C&D waste (min. 70%) higher recycling targets for packaging waste Biowaste Directive (min. 80%) Further development revised Waste Framework Directive (R1- status for MSW incineration) recycling targets for MSW (min. 50%) and C&D waste (min. 70%) higher recycling targets for packaging waste Biowaste Directive (min. 80%) Scenario 3a: Ambitious EU Legislation + Market Optimized development (free market) WFD – waste hierarchy as principle guideline targets and ban on landfill as in scenario 3 Optimized development (free market) WFD – waste hierarchy as principle guideline targets and ban on landfill as in scenario 3

9. © 2011 Prognos AG EU 27 waste management can contribute to… 9 Source Prognos – INFU – IFEU, Resource savings and CO 2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO 2 reduction target in 2020, Berlin 2008 reference year 2004 scenario 1 2020 scenario 2 2020 scenario 3 2020 scenario 3a 2020 + 146 Mt CO 2 equ. + 197 Mt CO 2 equ. + 227 Mt CO 2 equ. + 244 Mt CO 2 equ. 92 Mt CO 2 equ. only by implementation by waste legislation before WFD !.of the European climate protection targets until 2020..19% to 31% roughly corresponds to WFD

10. © 2011 Prognos AG Municipal Solid Waste management - indicator for the level of development of waste management 10 Source: Eurostat R1 / D10: 53.3 Mt recycled: 61.6 Mt composted*: 45.2 Mt landfilled: 100.8 Mt Ø 38% 257 Mt (2009 - EU 27 + NO + CH) are Municipal Solid Waste

11. © 2011 Prognos AG Municipal Solid Waste landfilled causes great CO 2 burdens... …and results in lost resources 11 Source: Prognos-IFEU-INFU, CO 2 -Study, 2008 * considered 11 fractions vs. remaining mixed MSW (grey bin); due to methodological reasons calculation based on constant total residual volumes ** wtE according to legislation in 2004 and 2006 considered as incineration (D10) ; for scenario 2 we calculated a share of 75% and for scenario 3/3a a share of 90% of municipal waste incineration plants achieving the energy efficiency criteria (R1). reference year 2004 scenario 1 2020 scenario 2 2020 scenario 3 2020 scenario 3a 2020 -114 Mt CO 2 equ. 59 Mt CO 2 equ. Credits for recycled MSW fractions* Balance for remaining MSW -55 Mt CO 2 equ. 70 Mt CO 2 equ. CO 2 reduction of separately collected fractions and alternative treatment methods of remaining MSW CO 2 burden by landfilling remaining MSW total share of contribution of alternative treatment methods (R1, D10, fuel preparation) share contribution of wtE (R1) legend: 128 Mt CO 2 equ. 109 Mt CO 2 equ. 105 Mt CO 2 equ.

12. © 2011 Prognos AG Only consequent diversion of waste from landfills will lead to better climate protection results: Landfill bans with different focus, e.g. combustible waste, unsorted waste, etc.) Landfill taxes with great differences per country 12 Instruments: Landfill bans and taxes in Europe landfill ban landfill tax PT ES IE UK NO FI SE FR DE PL DK BE NL AT CH IT EE LV LT BG RO HU CZ SK SI GR Source: CEWEP 2010 EU landfilling states EU lrecycling / incineration states

13. © 2011 Prognos AG Additional CO 2 reduction potential compared to 2004 (1)... only by improving disposal and waste treatment operations of remaining municipal waste (MSW) (as range between scenario 1 and scenario 3a compared to 2004) : EU recycling / incineration states 14 - 23 Mt CO 2 equ. EU landfilling states 70 – 107 Mt CO 2 equ. 9.5 – 14.9 Mt CO 2 equ. EU landfilling states EU lrecycling / incineration states Source: Prognos-IFEU-INFU, CO 2 -Study, 2008

14. © 2011 Prognos AG Additional CO 2 reduction potentials compared to 2004 (2)... through recycling, recovery and energy recovery in the analysed material waste streams (as range between scenario 1 and scenario 3a compared to 2004) : EU recycling / incineration states 23 - 44 Mt CO 2 equ. EU landfilling states 39 – 69 Mt CO 2 equ. 5.1 – 10.7 Mt CO 2 equ. EU landfilling states EU lrecycling / incineration states Source: Prognos-IFEU-INFU, CO 2 -Study, 2008

15. © 2011 Prognos AG The way to high resource and energy efficiency is still long but irreversible! 15 Waste management can......play an important role to close resource cycles and to secure important secondary raw materials and energy...contribute significantly to climate protection...by diverting (mainly calorific and biodegradable) waste from landfills...play an important role to close resource cycles and to secure important secondary raw materials and energy...contribute significantly to climate protection...by diverting (mainly calorific and biodegradable) waste from landfills

16. © 2011 Prognos AG Global challenges need coordinated global solutions Climate protection needs to be optimized by improved waste management 16 2. waste management needs to be really turned to resource management, giving priority to diverting waste from landfills 4. consumer needs to be better integrated into material cycles 1. waste management needs to become a really integrated part of environmental, economical and climate policy 3. recycling and energy recovery needs to go hand in hand (not against each other) giving priority to global environmental, climate etc. challenges 6. regional crossboarder concepts (instead of strict national self sufficiency concepts) need to be more supported 5. secondary raw material and energy efficiency needs to be increased 2 3 4 1 6 5

17. © 2011 Prognos AG 17 Sense of duty, team orientation, reliability … Lets use our chance! Trying to do the best … … but it wasnt enough Trying to do the best … … but it wasnt enough

18. © 2011 Prognos AG Where can you find further information? 18 Prognos AG: Europäischer Sekundärrohstoffatlas 2006 Status Quo und Potenziale – Edition 2009 / European Atlas of Secondary Raw Materials 2006 Status Quo and Potential – Edition 2009, Berlin 2008, added by a forecast for 2020 (www.prognos.com/sekundaerrohstoffatlas) Prognos – INFU – IFEU: Resource savings and CO 2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO 2 reduction target in 2020; Berlin 2008 (http://www.prognos.com/CO2-study.609.0.html)

19. © 2011 Prognos AG 19 Picture Copyright: slides 1-3, 15-17– fotolia ©; slide 19 – Prognos AG We give orientation. Prognos AG - European Centre for Economic Research and Strategy Advise Goethestr. 85 D-10623 Berlin Phone:+49 30 52 00 59 215 Fax: +49 211 887 97 8390 E-Mail: baerbel.birnstengel@prognos.com Dr. Bärbel Birnstengel Senior Project Manager