1. Crop Situation and Outlook
Western Iowa No-Till Demonstration Field Day
Shelby, Iowa
June 16, 2009
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

3. U.S. Corn Emergence
Source: USDA, Crop Progress

4. U.S. Soybean Progress
Source: USDA, Crop Progress

5. U.S. Soybean Emergence
Source: USDA, Crop Progress

6. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5
86.0
85.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
153.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,101
11,935
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,600
Imports 20 15
Total Supply
14,362
13,740
13,550
Feed & Residual
5,938
5,350
5,150
Ethanol
3,026
3,750
4,100
Food, Seed, & Other
1,337
1,290
1,310
Exports
2,436
1,750
1,900
Total Use
12,737
12,140
12,460
Ending Stocks
1,090
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.30
Source: USDA 6 6

7. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
76.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.6
42.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,959
3,195
Beg. Stocks
574
205
110
Imports 10 12
Total Supply
3,261
3,176
3,317
Crush
1,801
1,650
1,675
Seed & Residual 93
167
171
Exports
1,161
1,250
1,260
Total Use
3,056
3,066
3,107
Ending Stocks
210
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
10.00
Source: USDA

8. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices
Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish;
USDA-NASS

9. Cattle Returns vs. Corn Prices
Sources: ISU Extension, Yearling Steers;
USDA-NASS

10. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

12. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

13. Crude Oil Prices
Source: Energy Information Administration

14. Crude Oil Futures Prices
Source: NYMEX

15. Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD

16. Biodiesel Margins
Source: ISU, CARD

17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2008
3.57
2009
4.11
2010
4.43 17 17

18. Dept. of Energy Projections
Source: Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2009

19. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

20. Ethanol vs. Gasoline

21. % of Gasoline Blended with Ethanol
Source: Energy Information Administration

22. U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratios

23. World Stocks-to-Use Ratios

24. Seasonal Pricing Patterns
Source: USDA, NASS,
Monthly Price Data

25. Corn Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04
Source: CBOT, 6/15/09

26. Soybean Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $8.80
Source: CBOT, 6/15/09

27. Basis

28. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets
Projected economic recovery is a major key to steady/higher prices for the 2009 crop year
Most important ag. statistic: U.S. acreage estimates (June Plantings report)
USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $4.30 for corn and $10.00 for soybeans
Current futures Yesterday: Corn $4.05, Soy $9.71

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: