1. 2011 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-Service
May 9, 2011
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
92.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
161.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
13,537
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
675
Imports 14 8 20
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,175
14,232
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,140
5,150
5,120
Ethanol
3,709
4,568
5,000
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,371
1,400
1,440
Exports
1,849
1,987
1,950
2,000
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,500
13,560
Ending Stocks
672
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.40
?.?? 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
76.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
43.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,268
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
140
Imports 13 15
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,423
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,650
Seed & Residual
106
108
125
115
Exports
1,279
1,501
1,580
1,575
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,355
3,340
Ending Stocks 83
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.50
??.?? 3 3

4. Corn Area
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Area
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Weather Alerts
Source: NOAA-NWS

7. Weather Concerns 7 7

8. Corn Planting Progress
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Historical Comparisons

10. Some Recent Comparisons
Source: USDA-NASS

11. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 11 11

12. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 12 12

13. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

14. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

15. Corn vs. Wheat (CME July 2011 futures)

16. Export Pace vs. Last Year
Source: USDA, FAS

17. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

18. Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Ethanol Stocks

21. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 21 21

22. Ethanol Blending Advantage

23. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

25. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Energy prices limiting recovery (Osama effect?)
Supply/demand concerns
Planting intentions vs. realizations (A good week puts in 30% of crop)
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11
USDA
2011/12
Futures (5/6/11)
Corn
$5.40
$6.21
Soybeans
$11.50
$12.65

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: