1. Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Crop Outlook
Mobley Seminar Group
Ames, Iowa
September 2, 2009
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5
86.0
87.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
159.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,101
12,761
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,720
Imports 20 15
Total Supply
14,362
13,740
14,496
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,250
5,300
Ethanol
3,049
3,650
4,200
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,270
1,275
Exports
2,437
1,850
2,100
Total Use
12,737
12,020
12,875
Ending Stocks
1,621
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.05
3.50
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
64.7
75.7
77.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.7
39.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,677
2,959
3,199
Beg. Stocks
574
205
110
Imports 10 15
Total Supply
3,261
3,179
3,320
Crush
1,803
1,660
1,670
Seed & Residual 93
154
174
Exports
1,159
1,265
Total Use
3,056
3,069
3,109
Ending Stocks
210
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
10.00
9.40
Source: USDA 3 3

4. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use
2007
2008
2009
Production
(thou. tons)
42,282
39,566
39,785
Beg. Stocks
343
294
300
Imports
141
140
165
Total Supply
42,766
40,000
40,250
Domestic Demand
33,230
30,800
31,000
Export Demand
9,242
8,900
8,950
Total Use
42,472
39,700
39,950
Ending Stocks
Average Price
($/ton)
355.94
325.00
290.00
Source: USDA 4 4

5. Historical Freeze Data
Source: Dr. Elwynn Taylor, ISU

6. Fall Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA 8 8

9. Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices
Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish;
USDA-NASS

10. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

11. Exchange Rates (Jan = 1)
Source: USDA, ERS

12. 2009 Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

13. 2009 U.S. Corn Export Advance Sales
Source: USDA, FAS

14. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
50% GHG Emission Reduction
60% GHG Emission Reduction
20% GHG Emission Reduction
If construction started after Dec. 2007 14

15. Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD

16. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2008
3.57
2009
4.11
2010
4.43
2011
4.64 16 16

17. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

18. Crude Oil Futures Prices
Source: NYMEX

19. Bio-based Market Opportunities
Source: Informa Economics,
Biobased Multi-Client Study, March 2006

20. Biobased Pathways
Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

21. Dept. of Energy Projections
Source: Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Outlook 2009

22. Draft Lifecycle GHG Reductions
Source: EPA, May 2009 22

23. Corn

24. Corn

25. Seasonal Pricing Patterns
Source: USDA, NASS,
Monthly Price Data

26. Corn Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04
Source: CBOT, 9/1/09

27. Soybean Futures
2009 Rev. Ins. Price $8.80
Source: CBOT, 9/1/09

28. Soybean Meal Futures
Source: CBOT, 9/1/09

29. Iowa Crop Basis

30. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn
Source: CBOT

31. Input Costs
Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, July 31, 2009

32. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets
Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 crop year
Most important ag. statistics: Crop yield estimates, feed demand
USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.50 for corn and $9.40 for soybeans
Current futures Friday: Corn $3.10, Soy $ Tuesday: Corn $3.00, Soy $9.07

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: