1. Geo-spatial Electrification Planning for Myanmar Sustainable Engineering Lab Director: Vijay Modi Department of Mechanical Engineering (SEAS) and Earth Institute, Columbia University Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, November 22, 2013 1

2. Outline Rationale Our Approach: analysis platform for decision making: where what technology, prioritization, near- term decisions guided by long-term, least-cost Not engineering designs, but rapid planning Examples: village, region and national scales Combine International Experience + Local Expertise Our Project Plan and Starting Work in Myanmar

3. Rationale Organize information in a systematic digital form Useful for – Quickly budgeting – Responding to internal and donor needs – Transmission upgrades/generation – Communication bet township/state/national Co-ordination between grid and off-grid projects

4. Benefits of National Geospatial Planning Accelerate national access at scale: –access and service standards can be applied consistently –important for remote, under-served populations Improve allocation of investments: –ensure on-grid generation benefits from economies of scale –efficient targeting of off-grid systems for smaller communities –enable rapid design and bulk procurement in roll-out Provide a coordinated investment framework: –help donors & government prioritize according to local development goals –reduce risk for private sector investors and entrepreneurs NOTE: The difference between design vs. planning 4

5. Approach (1) Acquire detailed geo-spatial, cost and technical information: –Demand points (settlements) –Electricity Infrastructure (MV distribution lines) –Demand level –Growth rates (population, economic) –Cost Factors (grid and off-grid, initial & recurring) 5 (with off-grid)

6. Approach (2) Project demand and cost for a defined time-horizon: –Apply growth rates, wealth / income mapping Algorithmic computation of least-cost electricity system: –Grid extension –Mini- or Micro-grids (renewable, hybrid) –Household Systems (solar) Generate phased Roll-Out plan for grid and distributed systems 6 (with off-grid)

7. NetworkPlanner: An Algorithmic Planning System

8. NetworkPlanner How it Works A free, web-based tool (no license fees) Designed by our lab at the Earth Institute Accepts essential local inputs of geospatial demand points, costs for electricity technologies, growth rates and other key parameters. Algorithmically plans least-cost electricity systems in these steps: 1.Computes the lifetime costs (initial and recurring) for meeting projected electricity demand at every point for all electricity options 2.Chooses the lowest-cost electricity technology for each point 3.Creates detailed map outputs for the least-cost grid and all standalone systems. 4.Creates detailed tabular outputs describing investment needs, recurring costs, additional generation required, and many other planning outputs.

9. Kenya / EI Electricity Planning Project: Results highlighted the need to electrify western, under-served areas Region specific generation req. and transmission upgrades Ultimately led to major loan 1.3B from World Bank 9 Kenya – The First Major Use of Geospatial Planning

10. Example: Electrification Planning at the Regional scale Flores, Indonesia: 6,300 settlements in Eastern Indonesia 10

11. Inputs that went into access planning Location of each settlements Population of each settlement Where is the existing medium-voltage network? Unit costs of utility infrastructure, off-grid New customer demand

13. Initial Costs Recurring Costs Grid Extension $30/m MV line (with poles) $600 Total HH connection Costs (incl: service drop/LV line) $200/ kVA Transformer (15 kVA) $0.35 / kWh "bus bar" cost Annual O&M: 1% of line costs 3% of transformer costs Village Solar $1.00/W panels (5 peak sun hours / day) $267/kWh batteries, 5 kWh/kW $100/HH for LV wire to home $1/W BOS (electronics) $267/kWh battery replacement (every 3.3 years) Annual O&M: 1% of panel cost Off-Grid / HH Solar $2.15/W panels (5 peak sun hours/day) $267/kWh batteries 5kWh/kW battery capacity $267/kWh battery replacement (every 2.5 years) Annual O&M: 2% of panel cost 13 Essential Local Contribution: Technical and Cost Parameters

14. Example of Grid-Rollout over 20 Years (Flores Island, Eastern Indonesia)

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20. A complete electricity plan specifies locations with grid access, mini-grids, and off-grid (solar home systems)

21. Proposed Grid: 166,000 HHs Village Solar Mini-Grid: 84,000 HHs 21 Model results provide quantitative outputs for locations served by all system types, with capacities and costs.

22. Investments (250,000 new HH with elec) Pre-Existing Grid: Pre-existing household grid connections (2010 Census)170,130 Proposed New Grid Conn165,000 Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV)$165 Million Village Solar Mini-Grids Conn84,000 Total Initial cost for all Mini-Grid systems$94 Million Household Solar (model output)3000 $5M Generation Costs for Grid Connected HH Coal + Solar + Geothermal + Wind 22

23. Grid: Metrics Pre-Existing Grid:Units Pre-Existing MV line lengthkilometers1,505 Pre-existing connections (2010 Census)Households170,130 Existing MV Line Length per HHmeters8.8 Scenario ResultsUnits480 kWh/yr240 kWh Proposed MV line lengthkilometers1,93494 Proposed new grid connectionsHouseholds166,14119,400 Proposed MV line per new HHmeters11.64.8 Proposed Total New CapacityMW21.81.3 Proposed New Capacity per HHkW0.1300.065 Scenario Results480 kWh/yr240 kWh/yr Grid CostsTotal per new HH conn.Total per new HH conn. Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV)$163,479,151$984$14,337,188$736 for MV grid network$53,638,088$323$1,904,402$98 for LV, Svc Drop, HH wiring$109,841,063$661$12,432,786$638 Total levelized cost for Grid power$0.63 / kWh$0.72 / kWh 23

24. Solar Mini-Grid: Metrics Solar Mini-Grid: Costs Scenario Results480 kWh/yr240 kWh/yrUnit Proposed Total Capacity of Mini-Grids3549MW Proposed new mini-grid connections84,430215,840Households Proposed Capacity per HH416225W/HH Scenario Results480 kWh/yr240 kWh/yr Total per new HH conn.Total per new HH conn. Total Initial cost for system$94,032,500$1,114$149,769,300$694 System discounted cost$366,324,716$4,339$509,826,782$2,362 Total demand met by mini-grid (in kWh)502,893,7675,956 642,808,188 2,978 Total levelized cost per kWH for Grid power$0.76 /kWh$0.83 /kWh 10% of the kWh from diesel backup for solar mini-grids brings reliability from 80% to 90% 24

25. Solar Home Systems: Metrics and Costs Scenario Results480 kWh/yr240 kWh/yr Proposed Total watts of SHS946kW3,197kW Proposed new SHS connections2,649Households17,907Households Proposed Size for each SHS356W/HH179W/HH 480 kWh/yr240 kWh/yr Scenario ResultsTotal per new HH conn.Total per new HH conn. Total Initial cost for system$5,321,274$2,009$17,992,857$1,005 System discounted cost$18,141,961$6,849$61,343,525$3,426 Total demand met by Grid (in kWh)15,778,3445,956 642,808,18835,897 Total levelized cost for SHS power$1.16 /kWh Solar Home Systems Solar: Costs 25

26. Marginal costs of grid connections can increase with roll-out Model ResultsBackgroundGIS PlatformPopulation ModelingSolar MicroGridsTalking Points 26 Mini-grid

27. Mini-Grid Rollout: An example prioritizing higher demand villages

28. Grid? Solar home System Mini-grid High Voltage Planning at Township Level

29. Algorithm Results Technology Options Solar Mini Grid

30. Phase 1 < 20 Phase 2 20 – 25 Phase 3 > 25 Investment in MV line per connection (meters shown) Grid Rollout: An example prioritizing most cost-effective branches

31. Incremental Infrastructure one could start local and where/when demand grows and grid comes closer connect to the grid Keeps initial investments small and modular Does not strain utility immediately Allows demand grows and entrepreneurship to emerge organically

32. Our Project Plan The Earth Institutes approach to Electrification Planning in Myanmar will include three phases with an in-country workshop roughly marking each phase, as outlined below.

33. Our Project Plan 1. Data Gathering – Milestone 1: Inception Workshop – Deliverable 1: Inception Report – Milestone 2: Formation of a GIS dataset with acceptable resolution of population and MV network representation – Deliverable 2: Interim Report

34. Our Project Plan 2. Demand Analysis & Quantify Supply Needed – Milestone 3: Workshop on Initial Results – Deliverable 3: Draft Final Geospatial Rollout Plan 3. Final Scaled-Analysis and Knowledge Transfer – Milestone 4: Final Results Workshop – Milestone 5: GOM feedback on Draft Report – Deliverable 4: Final Geospatial Rollout Plan & accompanying datasets developed

36. Starting Work For Myanmar: Data Sets Needed for Electricity Modeling Settlement Data from Village or Village Tracts – Locations – Populations Existing Grid Distribution Data – map or digital file for medium-voltage lines Other drivers – Supply options, current/future – Demand/hh, population and demand growth, – unit costs of options

38. Village locations within Village Tracts Village Tract data may be supplemented in some cases Electrification Planning benefits from village level data.

39. Settlement Data From MOLFRD, DRD Village location and population, 2001 In absence of more recent data, an excellent starting point Project to future Can we updated as new figures become available

40. EXAMPLE: State: Magway Township: Pakoku

41. Existing distribution grid Transmission Lines – Available through MEPE, up to 66 kV Medium Voltage lines, ESE, YESB – 33 kV and 11 kV lines – Currently not available in digital geo-spatial form – ESE is compiling paper/scan images from all states/regions, estimated avai: 1 month Smaller off-grid systems – Expect to report later

42. Other drivers Large generation Sources – Hydropower, HGPE (generation), DHP (planning) Cost of Grid Generation in the future – Some uncertainty due to variable international fuel supply, scale of demand growth – JICA study – Hydro potentials, thru MOPE Hydro <5MW, from ESE Unit costs, demand

43. Original: jpeg with hand-drawn MV lines (red) GIS product: shapefile with digitized MV lines (blue)

44. Training and Capacity Building : Example: Data collection with smartphones 44 Training and detailed work with local electricity technicians and managers resulted in completion of a detailed local medium-voltage distribution grid map for a region in Eastern Indonesia West Timor (IDN), MV grid lines following EI training & mapping West Timor (IDN) MV grid initial estimate Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN)

45. Approach to data Settlement Data valuable for electricity, gas, roads, water, and other services Tools to gather and maintain data. How to rapidly capture planning grade data for existing lines Work closely with Government/Utility to embed tools/processes in their systems

46. Working with Ministries, Utilities, Enterprises We would like to begin here in Nay Pyi Taw, possibly following up in other regions or offices. We ask your permission and support Our plan and approach is to work side-by-side with local experts and practitioners to ensure the relevance, completeness and accuracy of all data and outputs. Workshop tomorrow