Presentation on theme: "NewSpace The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight Bigelow Aerospace Genesis-1 in orbit, July 2006."— Presentation transcript:
NewSpace The Coming Revolution in Commercial Human Spaceflight Bigelow Aerospace Genesis-1 in orbit, July 2006
Manned Orbital Space Habitat Deep Space Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?] Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014] Soyuz (Russia) Shenzhou (China) International Space Station [to 2016? ] Ares 1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?] - Apollo on Steroids
Manned Orbital Space Habitat Deep Space Space Shuttle (USA) [to 2010?]Rocketplane Kistler K-1 OV (USA) Ares 1/Orion Block 1 (USA) [from 2014]PlanetSpace Silver Dart (Canada/USA) Soyuz (Russia)SpaceX Dragon (USA) Shenzhou (China) International Space Station [to 2016?] Bigelow Aerospace Sundancer (USA) Bigelow Aerospace BA-330 (USA) Ares1/Ares 5/Orion Block 2 (USA) [from 2018-2020?] CSI Lunar Express (Russia/USA) Deep Space Expedition Alpha (Russia/USA) SpaceX Lunar Dragon? (USA) Manned Suborbital Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo (USA/UK)Armadillo Aerospace VDR (USA) RpK Rocketplane XP (USA)Starchaser Thunderstar (UK) Blue Origin New Shephard (USA)ARCA Stabilo (Romania) Prodea Explorer (Russia/USA)CANDSPACE Proteus (S.Korea) Planetspace Canadian Arrow (Canada/USA)
OldSpace Major military contractors Government cost-plus contracts ($500 hammers) Large project teams (~20,000 people in United Space Alliance) Politicised funding (porkbarrel)
NewSpace Small entrepreneurial companies (e.g. Masten Space Systems – 5 full-time employees) Fixed-price commercial contracts Rapid development cycle (Build a lot, fly a lot) Off-the-shelf technology
History of Space Commerce 1970's: communication satellites 1980's: earth resources satellites, space manufacturing (ISF) 1990's: navigation (GPS), satellite internet (Iridium, Globalstar, Teledesic) 2000's: space tourism? (Ansari X-Prize) 2010's: commercial space stations? (America's Space Prize)
Virgin Galactic Carrier aircraft (White Knight 2) and suborbital rocketplane (SpaceShipTwo) Designed and built by Burt Rutan, funded by Richard Branson $250M investment 5 spacecraft 2 carrier aircraft $100M for new spaceport at Upham, New Mexico
140km max altitude, ~5min of microgravity. $200,000 per seat ~200 customers now, est. 500 by first commercial flight WK2 rollout Farnborough 2007. Spacecraft test flights 2008-2009 British flight test crew Commercial service 2009 Virgin Galactic
Rocketplane XP Rebuilt LearJet 25, conversion to suborbital spaceplane Takeoff under jet power, ignites rocket at altitude Operating from Oklahoma Spaceport (former Strategic Air Command base). Pilot + 3 passengers Space tourism, nanosat launch First test flight 2008?
Blue Origin Funded by Jeff Bezos (Amazon.com) Own private spaceport in Cuthbertson County, TX VTVL modular design (New Shepard) Nov 2006: First prototype launch successful Test flights every 1-2 weeks Manned flights to 100km by 2010
Armadillo Aerospace Founded by John Carmack (creator of Doom, Quake) 8 people working part-time, total spend ~$2.5M VTVL unmanned tech demos 2004: successful hop testsuccessful hop test 2004: vehicle crashvehicle crash Oct 2006: entered NASA Lunar Lander Challenge ($1.3M prizes)
COTS NASA programme Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (also stands for Commercial Off-The-Shelf) Develop commercial ISS resupply (buy tickets, don't build rockets) $500M between two companies for cargo transport by 2010, with option for crew transport Fixed-price contract, dependent on technical milestones August 2006: Award split between two companies, SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler
SpaceX `Founded by Elon Musk (Paypal.com) Aims to provide launches 3-5x cheaper than US competition March 2006: Falcon-1 test launch failed, engine fire and shutdown Q1 2007: Second Falcon-1 test launch Q1 2007: Test firing Falcon-9 1st stage Dragon manned capsule under development. First Dragon demo fight 2008, first manned flight 2010?
Rocketplane-Kistler K-1: TSTO, fully reusable, recovery via parachutes & airbags Launch from Woomera, Australia Fleet of 5, launch every 2 weeks Cost: $21M per launch $207M under COTS programme Prototype 75% hardware complete now First launch 2009-2010.
Bigelow Aerospace Bob Bigelow, US hotel entrepreneur $500M of own money for inflatable manned space station modules (TransHab, ex-NASA program) 1/3-scale test modules - Genesis-I: in orbit - Genesis-II: launch Q1 2007 Sundancer: man-capable module 2009 BA-330: full-scale permanently manned station 2011? Working with Lockheed-Martin on crew transport Orbital tourism, commercial research, space manufacturing Genesis-I in orbit
Why should we care? It's cool It's British! Cheaper space operations = less pressure on space science budgets Cheap/free and frequent flight opportunities for science payloads Building commercial space infrastructure makes doing anything in space easier, including science. The UK has a head start in this industry, but it could easily be lost due to governmental, institutional and public indifference.