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14-1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Simulation Chapter 14

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14-2 The Monte Carlo Process Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets Simulation of a Queuing System Continuous Probability Distributions Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results Crystal Ball Verification of the Simulation Model Areas of Simulation Application Chapter Topics Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-3 Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an analogous physical system that is easier to manipulate. In computer mathematical simulation a system is replaced with a mathematical model that is analyzed with the computer. Simulation offers a means of analyzing very complex systems that cannot be analyzed using the other management science techniques in the text. Overview Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-4 A large proportion of the applications of simulations are for probabilistic models. The Monte Carlo technique is defined as a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution for use in a trial (computer run) of a simulation model. The basic principle behind the process is the same as in the operation of gambling devices in casinos (such as those in Monte Carlo, Monaco). Monte Carlo Process Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-5 Table 14.1 Probability Distribution of Demand for Laptop PCs In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by sampling from a probability distribution. Example: ComputerWorld demand data for laptops selling for $4,300 over a period of 100 weeks. Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (1 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-6 The purpose of the Monte Carlo process is to generate the random variable, demand, by sampling from the probability distribution P(x). The partitioned roulette wheel replicates the probability distribution for demand if the values of demand occur in a random manner. The segment at which the wheel stops indicates demand for one week. Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (2 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-7 Figure 14.1 A Roulette Wheel for Demand Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (3 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-8 Figure 14.2 Numbered Roulette Wheel Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (4 of 10) When the wheel is spun, the actual demand for PCs is determined by a number at rim of the wheel. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-9 Table 14.2 Generating Demand from Random Numbers Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (5 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-10 Select number from a random number table: Table 14.3 Delightfully Random Numbers Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (6 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-11 Repeating selection of random numbers simulates demand for a period of time. Estimated average demand = 31/15 = 2.07 laptop PCs per week. Estimated average revenue = $133,300/15 = $8, Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (7 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-12 Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (8 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Table 14.4

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14-13 Average demand could have been calculated analytically: Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (9 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-14 The more periods simulated, the more accurate the results. Simulation results will not equal analytical results unless enough trials have been conducted to reach steady state. Often difficult to validate results of simulation - that true steady state has been reached and that simulation model truly replicates reality. When analytical analysis is not possible, there is no analytical standard of comparison thus making validation even more difficult. Monte Carlo Process Use of Random Numbers (10 of 10) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-15 As simulation models get more complex they become impossible to perform manually. In simulation modeling, random numbers are generated by a mathematical process instead of a physical process (such as wheel spinning). Random numbers are typically generated on the computer using a numerical technique and thus are not true random numbers but pseudorandom numbers. Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets Generating Random Numbers (1 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-16 Artificially created random numbers must have the following characteristics: 1. The random numbers must be uniformly distributed. 2. The numerical technique for generating the numbers must be efficient. 3. The sequence of random numbers should reflect no pattern. Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets Generating Random Numbers (2 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-17 Exhibit 14.1 Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets (1 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-18 Exhibit 14.2 Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets (2 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-19 Exhibit 14.3 Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets (3 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-20 Revised ComputerWorld example; order size of one laptop each week. Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets Decision Making with Simulation (1 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.4

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14-21 Order size of two laptops each week. Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets Decision Making with Simulation (2 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.5

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14-22 Table 14.5 Distribution of Arrival Intervals Table 14.6 Distribution of Service Times Simulation of a Queuing System Burlingham Mills Example (1 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-23 Average waiting time = 12.5days/10 batches = 1.25 days per batch Average time in the system = 24.5 days/10 batches = 2.45 days per batch Simulation of a Queuing System Burlingham Mills Example (2 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-24 Simulation of a Queuing System Burlingham Mills Example (3 of 3) Caveats: Results may be viewed with skepticism. Ten trials do not ensure steady-state results. Starting conditions can affect simulation results. If no batches are in the system at start, simulation must run until it replicates normal operating system. If system starts with items already in the system, simulation must begin with items in the system. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-25 Exhibit 14.6 Computer Simulation with Excel Burlingham Mills Example Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-26 Continuous Probability Distributions Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-27 Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation (1 of 6) Bigelow Manufacturing Company must decide if it should implement a machine maintenance program at a cost of $20,000 per year that would reduce the frequency of breakdowns and thus time for repair which is $2,000 per day in lost production. A continuous probability distribution of the time between machine breakdowns: f(x) = x/8, 0 x 4 weeks, where x = weeks between machine breakdowns x = 4*sqrt(r i ), value of x for a given value of r i. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-28 Table 14.8 Probability Distribution of Machine Repair Time Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation (2 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-29 Table 14.9 Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation (3 of 6) Revised probability of time between machine breakdowns: f(x) = x/18, 0 x 6 weeks where x = weeks between machine breakdowns x = 6*sqrt(r i ) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-30 Table Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation (4 of 6) Simulation of system without maintenance program (total annual repair cost of $84,000): Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-31 Table Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation (5 of 6) Simulation of system with maintenance program (total annual repair cost of $42,000): Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-32 Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation (6 of 6) Results and caveats: Implement maintenance program since cost savings appear to be $42,000 per year and maintenance program will cost $20,000 per year. However, there are potential problems caused by simulating both systems only once. Simulation results could exhibit significant variation since time between breakdowns and repair times are probabilistic. To be sure of accuracy of results, simulations of each system must be run many times and average results computed. Efficient computer simulation required to do this. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-33 Exhibit 14.7 Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation with Excel (1 of 2) Original machine breakdown example: Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-34 Exhibit 14.8 Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System Simulation with Excel (2 of 2) Simulation with maintenance program. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-35 Outcomes of simulation modeling are statistical measures such as averages. Statistical results are typically subjected to additional statistical analysis to determine their degree of accuracy. Confidence limits are developed for the analysis of the statistical validity of simulation results. Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results (1 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-36 Formulas for 95% confidence limits: upper confidence limit lower confidence limit where is the mean and s the standard deviation from a sample of size n from any population. We can be 95% confident that the true population mean will be between the upper confidence limit and lower confidence limit. Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results (2 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-37 Simulation Results Statistical Analysis with Excel (1 of 3) Simulation with maintenance program. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.9

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14-38 Simulation Results Statistical Analysis with Excel (2 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.10

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14-39 Exhibit Simulation Results Statistical Analysis with Excel (3 of 3) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-40 Crystal Ball Overview Many realistic simulation problems contain more complex probability distributions than those used in the examples. However there are several simulation add-ins for Excel that provide a capability to perform simulation analysis with a variety of probability distributions in a spreadsheet format. Crystal Ball, published by Decisioneering, is one of these. Crystal Ball is a risk analysis and forecasting program that uses Monte Carlo simulation to provide a statistical range of results. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-41 Recap of Western Clothing Company break-even and profit analysis: Price (p) for jeans is $23 variable cost (c v ) is $8 Fixed cost (c f ) is $10,000 Profit Z = vp - c f – v c break-even volume v= c f /(p - c v ) = 10,000/(23-8) = pairs. Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (1 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-42 Modifications to demonstrate Crystal Ball Assume volume is now volume demanded and is defined by a normal probability distribution with mean of 1,050 and standard deviation of 410 pairs of jeans. Price is uncertain and defined by a uniform probability distribution from $20 to $26. Variable cost is not constant but defined by a triangular probability distribution. Will determine average profit and profitability with given probabilistic variables. Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (2 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-43 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (3 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-44 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (4 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.12

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14-45 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (5 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.13

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14-46 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (6 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.14

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14-47 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (7 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.15

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14-48 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (8 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.16

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14-49 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (9 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.17

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14-50 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (10 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.18

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14-51 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (11 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.19

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14-52 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (12 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.20

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14-53 Exhibit Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (13 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-54 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (14 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.22

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14-55 Crystal Ball Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (15 of 15) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Exhibit 14.23

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14-56 Analyst wants to be certain that model is internally correct and that all operations are logical and mathematically correct. Testing procedures for validity: Run a small number of trials of the model and compare with manually derived solutions. Divide the model into parts and run parts separately to reduce complexity of checking. Simplify mathematical relationships (if possible) for easier testing. Compare results with actual real-world data. Verification of the Simulation Model (1 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-57 Analyst must determine if model starting conditions are correct (system empty, etc). Must determine how long model should run to insure steady-state conditions. A standard, fool-proof procedure for validation is not available. Validity of the model rests ultimately on the expertise and experience of the model developer. Verification of the Simulation Model (2 of 2) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-58 Queuing Inventory Control Production and Manufacturing Finance Marketing Public Service Operations Environmental and Resource Analysis Some Areas of Simulation Application Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-59 Willow Creek Emergency Rescue Squad Minor emergency requires two-person crew Regular emergency requires a three-person crew Major emergency requires a five-person crew Example Problem Solution (1 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-60 Distribution of number of calls per night and emergency type: Example Problem Solution (2 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 1.Manually simulate 10 nights of calls 2.Determine average number of calls each night 3.Determine maximum number of crew members that might be needed on any given night.

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14-61 Step 1: Develop random number ranges for the probability distributions. Example Problem Solution (3 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-62 Step 2: Set Up a Tabular Simulation (use second column of random numbers in Table 14.3). Example Problem Solution (4 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-63 Step 2 continued: Example Problem Solution (5 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-64 Step 3: Compute Results: average number of minor emergency calls per night = 10/10 =1.0 average number of regular emergency calls per night =14/10 = 1.4 average number of major emergency calls per night = 3/10 = 0.30 If calls of all types occurred on same night, maximum number of squad members required would be 14. Example Problem Solution (6 of 6) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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14-65 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

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