1. Action C - Concretising scientific knowledge for economic analyses
Volunteers needed!
Rob van der Veeren
Opening the ecological black box?

2. Need for scientific knowledge for economic analyses
Clear understanding of the functioning of the ecosystem is of utmost importance to be able to perform (quantitative) cost-effectiveness analyses and cost-benefit analyses.
Therefore, we need to know what the impacts of measures are on the marine environment.
But…. (from STAGES):
The link between pressures by certain economic activities (or measures) and descriptors/indicators/ecosystem services is not clear yet. This makes it difficult to target measures.
If we would use tables to present all available information on the link between economic sectors and ecosystem goods and services, these tables are empty, since data are missing

3. In short
Instrument ?
Most important problem: lack of (quantitative) information on effects of measures and on cause-effect relations

4. Scientific knowledge is needed
“From the above, it becomes clear that there is a clear knowledge gap with respect to the effectiveness or impacts of measures (and more widely related to links between economic sectors- pressures-state-related changes in ecosystem goods and services). Most Member States have mentioned something in this respect.” STAGES: Workshop on research needs with regard to the socio-economic analysis under MSFD
Similar comments were made in various evaluations made over the past years (IA, PoM,…).

5. Why do we need this information?
… but this will be even more so, if ecologists cannot tell us what the positive impacts of measures could be…

6. Concretising scientific knowledge for economic analyses
But what scientific knowledge is exactly needed to carry out economic analyses?
The answer "information on the effects of the measures" is too vague and abstract
Therefore,
Need to make knowledge requirements as concrete as possible…
… to be able to ask targeted questions to ecologists and other scientific colleagues on knowledge needed to perform economic analyses
A simplified food web for the Northwest Atlantic (

7. How do we get there?
In order to make it interesting for as many Member States as possible: Start with inventory of environmental issues addressed by majority of MS in their PoMs (eutrophication, litter, MPAs)
For issues relevant for majority of MS, compile list of measures proposed by most MS
Collect information MS have on (costs and) effects of measures
Try to say something about reliability of information on measures (Is it very certain, or a wild guess; what is the source?)
Result: List of measures and available information about those measures

8. How do we get there? (2) This list can then be used in discussions:
Between Member States
With European Commission (EU research?)
With European working groups such, as WG GES
But also with the ecologists and other scientific colleagues within MS, to see how we can supplement missing information and improve reliability of existing information
In the short term, the empty fields in the database might be filled in with some rules of thumb ((if) better than nothing) For the long term, the information could be improved by additional monitoring and research

9. Products
The primary focus of this work package is to collect information on data gaps that can be used as a (long-term?) research agenda
The overview of rules of thumb on effects of measures (presenting orders of magnitude, expert judgment) might be useful for the economic analyses for the second Program of Measures, to be able to say at least something about the potential order of magnitude of effects, and help to make a qualitative evaluation of the cost effectiveness and efficiency of measures
Of course it remains up to the individual Member State to decide whether they think that the information in this overview is useful and reliable enough for their analyses. This exercise merely developing a possible helpful tool, not a requirement.

10. Potential planning Step What How When 1
Inventory of environmental problems 2
Inventory of measures
Agreement results 1 and 2
Discussion
WG ESA 1/16 3
Collection information on effects of measures 4
Reliability of measures 5
Compile list of available information
WG ESA 2/16 6
Share list with e.g. GES
Presentations? 7
Compile and improve rules of thumb
WG ESA 1/17

11. Volunteers needed
Who wants to join me?

12. Action C - Concretising scientific knowledge for economic analyses
MS Leader : NL
MS participants :
Main objectives :
Making as explicit as possible what economists need from natural scientists to be able to perform economic analyses
By product: Overview of rules of thumb
How action serves the MSFD 2nd cycle implementation ? Links to art.8, to art. 9, to art.10 or others :
Improvement of all MSFD economic analyses by identifying datagaps, formulating research questions, collecting potential rules of thumb, and (in the long run) hopefully filling data gaps with results of targeted research
Main steps/packages and associated milestones and intermediary deliverableas
. Lead/volunteers
. Deliverables/products
.By when
. April – discussion on WP
May – Mandate from MSCG confirm in june by marine directors
Oct – Esa WG – doc on WP
Step
Milestone
Who associate?
How ?
deliverables 1 2 3
13th ESA WG meeting Oct 2015