Presentation on theme: "Future fact The Big 5 The Social Forces Shaping South Africa."— Presentation transcript:
future fact The Big 5 The Social Forces Shaping South Africa
future fact Source: The futurefact survey South Africa is a rapidly changing society and having an in depth understanding of the significant psycho-social, political and economic trends is critical to any organisation that is planning for the future. futurefact has been surveying the attitudes, values and beliefs of South Africans and their media consumption since 1998 using questionnaires based on the relevant issues of the time and reference to opinion leaders and experts in various fields. It is at the nexus of psychographics and media and is a unique source for interrogating the critical drivers for successful positioning, marketing and communication initiatives.
future fact The futurefact survey The 2011 survey: Fieldwork period: March/April 2011 Sample: 2524 adults aged 15 plus; national probability sample excluding deep rural (communities of fewer than 500 people) representing 20.2 million people. The 2012 survey has just come out of field and will be available in May futurefact is funded by subscriptions to the survey.
future fact The Big 5 The Social Forces Shaping South Africa 4. Social Inclusion 2. Class Mobility 5. Digital World 1. Political Risk & Stability 3. Sustainability
future fact FORCE #1: Political Risk & Stability
future fact Political risk and stability are critical drivers of FDI and citizens confidence in South Africa
future fact Democratic beliefs Source: futurefact 2011 Applies strongly or on the whole
future fact Political attitudes and beliefs: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Support for ANC Source: futurefact
future fact Support for DA Source: futurefact
future fact Complete confidence in key political figures Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Most municipalities and local councils are corrupt and untrustworthy: Agree Source: futurefact
future fact To what extent do you believe that it is your personal responsibility to: Refuse to pay bribes under any circumstances Prof William Gumede: Graduate School of Public & Development Management, Wits If a political leader can get away with wrongdoing, how on earth should one expect the local metro policeman not to take a bribe? Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Paid a bribe 8% of the population acknowledge that they have paid a bribe in the past 12 months. This was to either get off a minor offence like a speeding ticket, a major offence like drunken driving, or paid someone to get a job, house or contract. 8% translates to 1,583 million bribes that took place within the past year. (This of course is in all likelihood an underestimate as many respondents would not necessarily have been honest). However for the sake of argument lets say this is the finite number of bribes and that each bribe averaged R100. That translates to R158 million changing hands for bribes.... Corruption is clearly a multi million rand business, fuelled by SA citizens.
future fact Quiet corruption Quiet corruption occurs when public servants deliberately neglect their duties to provide public services or goods. Quiet corruption may not involve an exchange of money, but involves providers of public services such as teachers, nurses or other officials bending the rules for their own private interests. This includes, for example, public servants not turning up for work when they should. Big-time corruption that takes place without consequences invariably encourages quiet corruption. Both types of corruption impact heavily on the quality of life of citizens.
future fact Cancer of corruption South Africa slipped down in Transparency Internationals 2010 Corruption Perception Index. According to the Index, an international survey of public corruption, South Africa ranked 54 out of 178 countries listed.
future fact Crime in South Africa
future fact Victim of crime in past 12 months Source: futurefact
future fact Victim of crime in past 12 months Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Of those who were a victim of crime – what percentage reported the crime to the police? Source: futurefact
future fact Crime Despite decreases in crime rate, fewer people who have been victims of crime reported the incident to the police. 7 out of 10 people believe that it is likely that people in South Africa commit crime as they are not likely to get caught. Three quarters of the population believe that neighbourhoods should have the right to fence off their communities. There has also been a decrease in confidence and trust levels for the SAPS. It may well be that community initiatives are being credited for the decrease in crime rather than the police themselves.
future fact Who is seriously thinking of leaving South Africa to live or work in another country? Source: futurefact 2011 Those least likely to return are whites, Indians, those in LSM 9-10 and the tertiary educated.
future fact I feel more confident now about future prospects for South Africa than I did before the first democratic elections in 1994 Source: futurefact Applies strongly or on the whole
future fact Opportunities and progress: Applies strongly/on the whole Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Your thoughts on where we are: Political risk and stability Euphoric Cautiously optimistic Pretty negative Very depressed futurefact view: Cautiously optimistic Despite all the problems we face, the government has and continues to provide a stable economic environment
future fact FORCE #2: Class Mobility
future fact Why measure class mobility ? Class Mobility is essentially a self classification, based on peoples perceptions of the class they themselves fall into and of the class their parents fell into when they were the same age. Class mobile people do not see themselves as static but as moving up the ladder and their lifestyles and purchasing decisions will mirror their aspirations. Class MOBILITY is an important tool for self projection. What I believe is what Ill be
future fact Changing face of economics and marketing within SA In the USA it takes on average four generations for a poor American family to reach the income of an AVERAGE family, yet profound change is occurring in the space of in one generation in South Africa. South Africa is arguably one of the most socially mobile societies in the world. The move from the circumstances of previous generations is substantial, with the result that optimism prevails in regard to what the future could bring – notwithstanding the realities of the economic recession. Nonetheless the mobility escalator has slowed and it appears that the bulging middle class of 2009 has split into two segments. There is much confirming evidence in the 2011 survey that the over-committed are now seeing themselves as part of the working class again, while others have managed to entrench themselves in the middle class or above. This has immense implications for marketing and communications strategies.
future fact The social class pyramid Upper middle / upper class 3.3m 16% Middle class 8m 40% Working/lower class 7.9m 39% 5% dont know Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Inter-generational Mobility: Own Class versus parents at the same age Source: futurefact 2011
future fact My standard of education is better than my parents managed to achieve Source: futurefact 2011
future fact High school or post matric education subjects Source: futurefact
future fact High school or post matric education subjects Despite reservations about the new curriculum, the youth of today are certainly better equipped than previous generations Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Standard of living in comparison to parents at the same age Better = 53% Worse = 29% 4% Dont know Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Future standard of living of children when they are your age? (Base: Parents) Better = 57% Worse = 22% 9% Dont know Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Personal Income South Africa 1980 Source: AMPS
future fact Personal Income South Africa 2000 Source: AMPS
future fact Personal Income South Africa 2010 A slight decrease in black share of top 10% is noted since the global economic slump Source: AMPS YEAR 2010
future fact Relative progression in black and white households: Microwave (2005) 000s Source: AMPS
future fact Relative progression in black and white households: Free standing deep freeze (2008) 000s Source: AMPS
future fact Relative progression in black and white households: MNET or DSTV Decoder (2009) 000s Source: AMPS
future fact Relative progression in black and white households: Internet connection at home* (2010) *Including dial up, ADSL, wireless broadband, mobile access 000s Source: AMPS
future fact Relative progression in black and white households: Computer in home (2011/12?) 000s Source: AMPS
future fact Source: Before Sunset Blog Is it the case that ………
future fact Materialistic aspirations can be a valid route to a harmonious lifestyle... Outer-Directed M otivated by material success, overt status, approval, a high standard of living and achievement needs Inner-Directed M otivated by quality of life, personal growth and development, aesthetics, design. Integrated B alance, harmony, self-actualisation Need Driven D riven by need rather than choice survival, food, drink, shelter, security SRI (VALS) Double Hierarchy of Needs SRI (VALS) Double Hierarchy of Needs (Stanford Research Institute) SRI (VALS)
future fact SA in the Brand Spiral: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Companies should note the power of the working class: Agree Source: futurefact m 3.5m 3.3m 1.9m 1.7m 2.8m
future fact Your thoughts on how Class Mobility will evolve in the next 10 years or so: Continue to increase pretty rapidly Slow down substantially It will plateau It will reverse futurefact view: Pretty rapidly Generational change and the opportunity environment are holding strong for the middle class
future fact FORCE #3: Sustainability
future fact Personal Sustainability
future fact Facilitators to sustainability: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Hindrances to personal sustainability: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact I do not believe that people like me can always find work or get a job Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Less than before…. Source: futurefact 2011 Agree
future fact I already am or intend to start working for myself in the next year or two: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Social Capital: Know how to….. Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Economic Sustainability
future fact The gap between the rich and the poor is just going to get bigger Source: futurefact
future fact Attitudes to Unions: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Productivity & efficiency: Agree Source: futurefact 2011 Essential to ensure economic growth and advancement
future fact IMD – World Competitiveness Yearbook
future fact Our place among the emerging market countries amidst all the global economic turmoil… South Africa ranks 10th for foreign direct investment in Africa. South Africa ranks below Nigeria and Egypt - two countries which are on the rise - but we are also, incredibly, behind Libya. Top of the list of disincentives to invest is our weak and uncertain policy environment.
future fact Your thoughts on Sustainability: Given that this includes personal, economic and environmental sustainability, how many points out of 10 do you give us as a country? futurefact view: 6 Willingness to save, create jobs and protect the environment is there, but government policies are not creating a sufficiently conducive environment
future fact FORCE #4: Social Inclusion & the Value of Diversity
future fact Spirit of inclusion and a meritocracy mindset Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Have friends from other race groups Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Self Description (First Descriptor) Source: futurefact 2011 People no longer see themselves in the boxes of the apartheid era
future fact Attitudes to Africa
future fact Declining negative or divisive attitudes regarding Africa… Immigrants are a threat to jobs for South Africans, they should not be allowed into the country Source: futurefact
future fact Declining negative or divisive attitudes regarding Africa… People from South Africa are superior to those from other parts of Africa Im not arrogant Im just better than you Source: futurefact
future fact Your thoughts on Social Inclusion: What is the likelihood we can achieve unity in diversity? Already a reality 80:20 50:50 Its a pipe dream – its never going to happen futurefact view: 80:20 With a big proviso that the constitution, media freedom, the judiciary and so on are respected and leadership sends out racially inclusive messages
future fact FORCE #5: Our Digital World
future fact Technological advances driven by pressures from a Digital Society have allowed people and countries to leap-frog technology. The Giant Leap
future fact Attitudes to technology: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Communication devices in the home Source: futurefact 2011 Products like I-Pods, I-Pads, Blackberries and Kindles still have very few users – even in the upper classes
future fact Source: futurefact 2011 What people do on their cellphones Base: have own cellphone
future fact Attitudes to unsolicited calls and sms: Agree Source: futurefact 2011
future fact Source: futurefact 2011 Who has access to the internet?
future fact Source: futurefact 2011 What people do on the internet Base: have internet access
future fact Cellphone penetration Africa
future fact Digital world key to economic & personal growth Leapfrogging technology is key to economic and personal growth in Africa. The youth are known to be the early adopters of technology, but the knowledge is then filtered to older generations. This could change the face of marketing, banking, education and political freedom for the youth in Africa.
future fact Your thoughts on Digital World: What do you think is the more likely scenario in the next 5 years or so? We will continue to leapfrog ahead Our growth will be stymied by regulations and costs futurefact view: We will continue to leapfrog ahead Advances in technology, generational change and business will put pressure on regulators as will the economic imperative for the country
future fact IN CONCLUSION...
future fact Challenges facing South Africa..... Education Health care Media Freedom Alcoholism BEE Child & woman abuse Climate change Crime Food cost Health care Gangs Illegal immigrants Emigration Electricity Economic transformation Drugs Strikes Service delivery Corruption Poverty Low exportsRand strength Global market volatility Fuel price Land redistributionForeign investment Judicial system Housing HIV/Aids Racism Rand volatility Police Skills shortage Fracking Water Unemployment Xenophobia Political leadership Labour laws etc...
future fact 4. Social Inclusion 2. Class Mobility 5. Digital World 1. Political Risk & Stability 3. Sustainability A nuanced and useful way of contextualising the challenges
future fact To build sustainable strategic advantage Attitudes precede behaviour so change on a societal level translates into a changing consumer market. Strategising for product and services development, positioning and communication is a crucial ongoing process for any organisation in the evolving South Africa.