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© Nuffield Foundation 2012 © Rudolf Stricker Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity House price moving averages
© Nuffield Foundation 2010 How have house prices in the UK changed since 2000? Do the house prices change more in some quarters of the year than in others? How could fluctuations due to seasonal factors be smoothed out?
© Nuffield Foundation 2010 House price moving averages Moving averages can be used to smooth out fluctuations due to seasonal factors. Moving averages For data points p 1, p 2, … the simple moving average at interval m with n data points is: It is often quicker to calculate successive values using
© Nuffield Foundation 2010 Weighted moving averages The problem of lag can be addressed by using weighting. where the denominator is the triangular number with sum. The linear weighted moving average is:
Reflect on your work What is a moving average? Why are they used? Describe two methods of calculating a moving average. Describe how to find a weighted moving average. Why does a weighted moving average help to overcome the problem of lag? © Nuffield Foundation 2012
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity What is it?
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Mathematics Activity DISCUSS regression and correlation CC Rudolf Stricker.
Simple Exponential Smoothing The forecast value is a weighted average of all the available previous values The weights decline geometrically Gives more.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Sports injuries © Rudolf Stricker.
© Nuffield Foundation 2011 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity What’s it worth? © Rudolf Stricker.
Review Use data table from Quiz #4 to forecast sales using exponential smoothing, α = 0.2 What is α called? We are weighting the error associated with.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Factor cards: quadratic expressions.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Networks © Rudolf Stricker.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Modelling a test drive © Rudolf Stricker.
© Nuffield Foundation 2011 Nuffield Mathematics Activity Mean values.
Time Series A collection of measurements recorded at specific time intervals.
© Nuffield Foundation 2011 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Annual percentage rate with more than one instalment Lower APR.
Chapter 1: The Stock Market 1.4 Simple Moving Averages.
© Nuffield Foundation 2011 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Gradients.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Fractions, decimals, percentages.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Mathematics Activity A risky business © Rudolf Stricker.
Using a Centered Moving Average to Extract the Seasonal Component of a Time Series If we are forecasting with say, quarterly time series data, a 4-period.
Time Series Forecasting Trends and Seasons and Time Series Models PBS Chapters 13.1 and 13.2 © 2009 W.H. Freeman and Company.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Successful HE applicants © Rudolf Stricker.
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 14 Further Integration Techniques and Applications of the Integral.
© Nuffield Foundation 2011 Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Simple and compound interest.
Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting. Qualitative Forecasts Survey Techniques Planned Plant and Equipment Spending Expected Sales and Inventory Changes Consumers’
CHAPTER 18 Models for Time Series and Forecasting to accompany Introduction to Business Statistics fourth edition, by Ronald M. Weiers Presentation by.
Forecasting. Chapter Objectives Be able to: Discuss the importance of forecasting and identify the most appropriate type of forecasting approach, given.
Introduction to Forecasting COB 291 Spring Forecasting 4 A forecast is an estimate of future demand 4 Forecasts contain error 4 Forecasts can be.
Smoothing by moving average. The Moving Average Method Useful in smoothing time series to see its trend Basic method used in measuring seasonal fluctuation.
Financial Algebra © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved Slide SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES Understand how data is smoothed. Calculate simple moving.
PowerPoint Slides by Robert F. BrookerCopyright (c) 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Managerial Economics in a Global Economy Chapter 5 Demand.
Part II – TIME SERIES ANALYSIS C2 Simple Time Series Methods & Moving Averages © Angel A. Juan & Carles Serrat - UPC 2007/2008.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 © Rudolf Stricker Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Gender differences.
Time Series and Forecasting Session 8. Using Statistics Trend Analysis Seasonality and Cyclical Behavior The Ratio-to-Moving-Average Method Exponential.
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-1 Chapter 15 Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers Statistics.
© Nuffield Foundation 2012 © Rudolf Stricker Nuffield Free-Standing Mathematics Activity Can they tell the difference? low calorie alternative ginger ale.
7-3 DEPRECIATION OBJECTIVES: 1) TO FIND ACCUMULATED DEPRECIATION OF A VEHICLE 2) TO CALCULATE AVERAGE ANNUAL DEPRECIATION OF A VEHICLE 3) TO DETERMINE.
Economics 173 Business Statistics Lecture 26 © Fall 2001, Professor J. Petry
Time series Decomposition Farideh Dehkordi-Vakil.
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 4e © 2004 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 15-1 Chapter 15 Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers Statistics.
Basic Business Statistics, 11e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 16-1 Chapter 16 Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers Basic Business Statistics 11 th.
Forecasting. ©2006 Pearson Prentice Hall — Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management — Bozarth & Handfield Chapter 9, Slide 2 Why Forecast?
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 16-1 Chapter 16 Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers Basic Business Statistics 10 th.
Calculus is the branch of mathematics that we use to describe change.
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 1.
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel, 5e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc.Chap 16-1 Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft® Excel 5th Edition Chapter.
Foundations of Physical Science Workshop: The Lever.
Forecasting OPS 370. Forecasting What is Forecasting? – Determining Future Events Based on Historical Facts and Data Some Thoughts on Forecasts – Forecasts.
© 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.Chap 12-1 Business Statistics: A First Course (3 rd Edition) Chapter 12 Time-Series Forecasting.
© 2002 Prentice-Hall, Inc.Chap 13-1 Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel 3 rd Edition Chapter 13 Time Series Analysis.
Chap 19-1 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting Statistics for Business.
Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) DEA is used to study the efficiency of each of many Decision Making Units (DMU) Examples of applications: Hospital units,
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