1. BCs Carbon Tax Shift After Five Years: Analysis of Environmental and Economic Impacts Stephanie Cairns On behalf of Prof. Stewart Elgie and Jessica McClay

2. Who We Are and What We Do Ideas: Produce rigorous research and reports Connect: High-impact events and dialogues Results: Outreach aimed at informing policy 2 National environment-economy think tank and research network 100+ profs from Canada and world Leaders from NGO, business, policy Secretariat at Univ. of Ottawa

3. BCs Carbon Tax Shift After 5 Years: Methodology Focus on environmental effectiveness and economic impact StatsCan and Environment Canada data Focus mainly on fossil fuels (vs GHGs) To help isolate effects of tax – Compared BC with rest of Canada – Examined trends pre- and post tax – Compared with non-taxed fuels Caution: further economic analysis needed to reach more firm conclusions about these effects and causality

4. Overall Fuel Use Change: BC vs Canada (2008-12) BCs fuel use down 18.8% vs rest of Canada since C tax shift So economic downturn doesnt explain it (all provs had that) Per capita consumption of petrol. products subject to the BC tax (% change) 2008/092009/102010/112011/12 2008-12 TOTAL BC -5.4%-3.6%-2.4%-7.1% -17.4% Canada -3.4%-0.7%3.9%1.7% 1.5% Difference -2.1%-3.0%-6.3%-8.8% -18.8% Source: Elgie, McClay (2013)

5. Other Pre-existing Drivers? BC & Canada tracked consistently pre-2008 on fuel efficiency, but the gap grew rapidly after 2008 when the carbon tax introduced Source: Elgie, McClay (2013)

6. Occurring Across All Fuel Types *Aviation fuel is the exception (largely exempt!) Source: Elgie, McClay (2013)* Excludes little-used fuels (Naptha, Butane)

7. GHG changes (2008-11) Per capita GHG emissions for sources covered by the BC tax (% change) 2008200920102011 2008-11 Total British Columbia -1.5%-6.7%-1.1%-2.4%-10.0% Rest of Canada -3.6%-3.9%-0.9%3.9%-1.1% Difference 2.1%*-2.8%-0.2%-6.3%-8.9% Slightly smaller gap, maybe due to: – Shorter time (no 2012) – GHG data includes first 6 months of 2008 (pre C-tax) – Data differences? Source: Elgie, McClay (2013)

8. Effects on Economy BCs GDP has stayed similar to rest of Canadas since 2008 – But carbon taxs effect is very small part – Similar to EU experience (small positive GDP change) No doubt winners and losers, e.g: – Clean tech sector has doubled – Very small impacts on agriculture (est. <0.5%, prelim.) Jurisdiction 2008200920102011 2008-11 Total B.C. -1.16%-3.90%1.64%1.92% -0.15% Canada -0.45%-3.88%1.91%1.38% -0.23% GDP Change: BC vs Canada 2008-11

9. Taxpayer Impacts The tax shift has resulted in lower overall taxes for BCers (about $500M) BC now has lowest corp (tied) and personal income tax

10. Overall BC now has – Lowest fuel use in Canada – Lowest income tax – Healthy economy (with fast- growing clean tech) Greenery in Canada We have a winner B.C.s carbon tax woos sceptics Jul 21st 2011 Best-designed carbon tax in the world (Prof. Paul Ekins, University College London)