1. Social Ecology: World Sustainability
The Ecological Crisis
Social Ecology: World Sustainability

2. Paradigm Theory
Cultural Groups Develop “insider” views of the world---shared sets of assumptions, jargon, definitions, methods---that cause them to see the world similarly.
Resist change
Anomaly
Explanation
Crisis
Alternative Explanation
Defense
Revolution

3. Raising the Alarm in the 1960s
Murray Bookchin (aka Lewis Herbert) Our Synthetic Environment, 1962
“to suggest that pesticides, food additives, chemicalized agriculture, burgeoning urbanization and nuclear energy were harmful was regarded not merely as “reactionary” but as a national heresy” given the sentiment “characteristic of the country as a whole---the equating of progress with mindless growth and the technocratic ideal of `progress above all.’”

4. Raising the Alarm in the 1960s
Rachel Carson Our Silent Spring 1962
“the controversy that exploded around Rachel Carson’s book….highlights the extent to which American public opinion, orchestrated by corporate interests and government agencies, adhered to a “grow or die” economic mentality and a domineering attitude toward the natural world.” [Bookchin, X11]

5. Apollo

9. Limits to Growth 1972 The Club of Rome
The world first confronts the reality that resources limits constrain growth.
The Club of Rome---an international organization of scholars, industrialists and scientists from 25 nations funded Denis and Donella Meadows to run a computer model projecting conditions in 2100 from known data

10. The World Model Jay Forrester MIT
Model complex systems and project outcomes given specified assumptions
Overcome humans’ limited ability to handle complexity and large number of variables.
Ex. Of simple linear extrapolation:
Herman Kahn The Year 2000 (Hudson Institute) failed to anticipate energy, pollution or population problems. Assumed economic and technological growth would handle all problems.

11. Modeling Complex Systems Cont.
Complex systems have multiple feedback loops
Short run, linear decision making fails to anticipate unexpected results
ex. Iron rule of highways.
each variable affects all
Synergistic interactions = 5
ex. Drug interactions
Time Delay
ex. Ozone hole, climate change

12. Modeling Complex Systems Cont.
Von Bertalanffy---General Systems Theory
Through-put
output
input
SYSTEM:
CLOSED
OR OPEN

13. Buckminister Fuller: “Make the world work, for 100% of humanity, in the shortest possible time, through spontaneous cooperation, without ecological offense or the disadvantage of anyone.”
Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth 1963
Dymaxion and Geodesic Dome

14. Forrester Assumed that Social Systems:
Engage in counterintuitive behavior
The welfare of the system may be contradicted by subsystems with different goals
The actions of one subsystem affect all
Short term improvements conflict with long term perspectives because consequences invariably lead to degradation
Are insensitive to policy changes intended to change the system’s behavior.

15. System Dynamic Computer Modeling
Assume key variables, trends and weighting of factors plus interactive factors.
Use mathematical equations to simulate multiple interactions and non-linear relations among variables.
Clearly specify assumptions.
Can change assumptions as new information comes to light. Test different scenarios.
Not predicting the future but projecting current trends to see consequences and allow for correction.

16. 5 Key Variables Dynamically Interacted
Population
Pollution
Natural Resources
Industrial Output per capita
Food per capita

17. Limitations
Crude---ex. Pollution omitted many types of pollution and focused only on long lived types.
Resources lumped all together.
Assume resources last 250 years at 1970 use rates.

18. 6 Major Assumptions
Finite stock of exploitable, non-renewable resources
Finite amount of land to grow food
Finite capacity of environment to absorb pollution
Technological change is incremental assuming money and environmental technology to allow.
Finite yield of food from any unit of arable land

19. Thomas Malthus 1798 Malthus published On Population.
Imbalance between population and resources is inevitable because
Food increases arithmetically
Population increases geometrically
“God created a world in which the power of the eater to reproduce himself is of a superior order than that of the earth to produce food because fear of starvation stimulates men to be industrious.”

20. Assumptions Continued
6. Exponential growth of population, pollution and industrial output as long as resources and their interaction permit.
Ex. World population increasing at 1.7% -1.8%.
Population increased more than 6x in 200 years.

21. World Population (billions)
6.5 billion in 2005
4 billion in 1975
The MA focused on population growth in last 50 years. From MA Synthesis: “Between 1960 and 2000, the demand for ecosystem services
grew significantly as world population doubled to 6 billion people ...” This figure (not from the MA) illustrates that recent growth but in the context of the longer term trends. Sources are listed below.
1 billion in about 1804, 2 billion in 1927 (123 years to double), 4 billion in 1974 (54 yrs to double); 6.5 billion in July In the last 45 years (since 1960) more people have been added to the planet (3.4 billion) than lived on the planet in 1960.
Source (1950 to 2050): Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, 06 July 2005; 1:30:16 PM.
Source ( ): Ronald Lee, “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change”, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Volume 17, Number 4—Fall 2003—Pages 167–190.
Source (pre 1700): Population Reference Bureau: "World population expanded to about 300 million by A.D. 1 and continued to grow at a moderate rate. But after the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, living standards rose and widespread famines and epidemics diminished in some regions. Population growth accelerated. The population climbed to about 760 million in 1750 and reached 1 billion around 1800"
2 billion in 1920
1 billion in 1800
Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau

22. Exponential Growth
When a quantity changes exponentially, its value will double (or halve) in regular time intervals.
The time it takes to double depends on the annual percent of growth. You calculate doubling time by dividing this annual growth rate into 70.
Doubling time in years = 70/growth rate or 70/1.8=39 years.

23. World GDP (trillion 1990 dollars)
$52 trillion in 2003
$10 trillion in 1967
Global economic activity increased nearly seven-fold between 1950 and Gross World Product expected to increase 3-6 fold between 2000 and 2050 in MA scenarios. The figure shown here is not in the MA but the data for the period 1960 to 2005 are consistent with the MA findings. Source for data used to plot the figure:
Source: Estimating World GDP, One Million B.C. - Present; J. Bradford DeLong;
$1 trillion in 1900
Source: DeLong 1998

24. New York City’s Solar Energy Future The Center for Sustainable Energy at Bronx Community College, January 2006

25. NEOMALTHUSIAN INEQUITY
We live in a world where
1/5 of people and 1/3 of children are hungry
1/5 of people lack clean water
1/5 of people lack adequate housing
1/3 of people lack health care and fuel
½ of people lack sanitation
¼ of adults cannot read and write

26. Overshoot = Crash
S curve
crash

27. Phantom Capacity & Overshoot
Catton: carrying capacity illusions x reality cc CC
Unlimited CC
load
load
load
Prosthetic/
Tech Fix
realism
Unrealisms

28. World Population (billions)
6.5 billion in 2005
4 billion in 1975
The MA focused on population growth in last 50 years. From MA Synthesis: “Between 1960 and 2000, the demand for ecosystem services
grew significantly as world population doubled to 6 billion people ...” This figure (not from the MA) illustrates that recent growth but in the context of the longer term trends. Sources are listed below.
1 billion in about 1804, 2 billion in 1927 (123 years to double), 4 billion in 1974 (54 yrs to double); 6.5 billion in July In the last 45 years (since 1960) more people have been added to the planet (3.4 billion) than lived on the planet in 1960.
Source (1950 to 2050): Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, 06 July 2005; 1:30:16 PM.
Source ( ): Ronald Lee, “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change”, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Volume 17, Number 4—Fall 2003—Pages 167–190.
Source (pre 1700): Population Reference Bureau: "World population expanded to about 300 million by A.D. 1 and continued to grow at a moderate rate. But after the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, living standards rose and widespread famines and epidemics diminished in some regions. Population growth accelerated. The population climbed to about 760 million in 1750 and reached 1 billion around 1800"
2 billion in 1920
1 billion in 1800
Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau

29. Findings of Limits to Growth
If population and industrial growth continue to J curve, sometime after 2000, nonrenewable resources will be depleted and a population crash will follow de to scarcity of food and medicine.
If assume technological advance doubles all resource reserves and you allow 75% recycling, there will be a sharp increase in pollution increasing death rates and causing a population crash.

30. BEYOND THE LIMITS, Meadows, et al.
Tom Tietenberg; Harper Collins, 1992

31. Condition of Improving Standard of Living with Population Increase
If world averages 2 children per family
If world industrial output/capita stabilizes at 1975 levels
If reduce resource consumption and pollution to ¼ of 1970 levels
If shift consumption from material goods to services
If direct capital toward food production, soil enrichment and erosion control
If industrial capacity is built to last much longer.

32. Criticisms of Limits to Growth
Not Assume technology and ingenuity increases to solve all problems
Not assume people can adapt to all conditions
Not objective; computer replaces humans
Failure assured given exponential growth and finite resources
Fatalistic---lessen hope, self fulfilling prophesy
Lumps unique regions of the globe together
See

33. Mankind at the Turning Point Messarovic and Pestel 1974
To address criticism that world regions differ
2nd study divided world into ten regions.
Despite assuming technological optimism, more pessimistic.
Unless economy and growth redistributed from rich to poor nations,
Resources and food will collapse by 2050 in poor nations causing a population crash
Interdependency means regional collapse will pull all down. Ex. Asian Flu 1998

34. Changed Debate Move to neo-malthusian view
Not just population, but increased resource use is problem
Recognize World System---interconnected
Differences between poor and rich countries
West plus Japan and Russia --- ¼ population and 80% resource use
US 5% world population, 1/3 resource use and 1/3 pollution

35. Global July 1980
In May 1977, President Carter ordered a study of world population and natural resources through 2000.
Done by US CEQ and DOS
US govt. lacked a tradition of long term planning
Trend projection using long term global data and models employed by federal agencies.

36. Global 2000 Conservative Bias
Used existing long term data and models of US government
Data on population, GNP, resources and environment taken sequentially
Thus, not interact factors
Allocate resources repetitiously
Assume continued growth of earth’s goods and services without maintenance or higher costs

37. Assumptions of Global 2000 Continuation of public policy
Continuation of rapid technological development without resistance
(ex. Continually increasing crop yields)
Assume that shortages of resources cause rising prices which will drop demand
International trade not disturbed by war, politics or economics, etc.

38. Sample Findings Global 2000
As population increases, the gap between the rich and poor will widen
Food production increase 90% assuming constant climate and environment
Due to energy intensive farming not new land
Fertilizer, pesticide, machines, irrigation
Only a 15% per capita increase
Costs of food double
Increase food importation
Bulk of food go to rich
# of malnourished triple to 1.3 billion

39. Sample Findings Global 2000 #2
Food Cont.
1 hectare of arable land (2.5 acres) support people
people LDC 5.5 people
Soil loses yearly size of Maine; by 2000 lose 1/3 world’s arable land
Increased use of grain for alcohol fuels
Contradiction—increase production from Green Revolution ignores degradation from soil loss

40. Sample Findings Global 2000 #3
Soil Destruction is constraint to food growth:
Higher yields at cost of soil integrity:
organic humus—nutrients, water absorption
inorganic clay and salts---infertile
rock pieces, bedrock
Desertification: barren land ex. Sahel 3x
overgrazing, farming on marginal lands
Drought cycles

41. Sample Findings Global 2000 #4
Waterlogging, salinization, alkalinization
Asia, S. America, California
collapse of Mesopotamia and Upper Nile
Deforestration---increased flood and erosion
Erosion---corn and marginal land farming
Loss of organic matter and largest CO2 sink
Development---urbanization of river valleys, industrialization, sprawl

42. Sample Findings Global 2000 #5
Other factors affecting food:
Monocultures
Loss of diversity
Use of hybrids and designer crops
Fuel subsidies to agriculture
Pollution from pesticides, fertilizers, etc.
Net effect: shift farming from renewable to non-renewable and unsustainable basis!!!!

43. Sample Findings Global 2000 #6
Other Conclusions:
Fisheries overexploited
Loss of forests ½ California/year
Particularly in LDCs (40% by 2000), Trop RF
Severe Water shortages
doubling with population, irrigation
Mineral resources no reserves, more $, inequity
Global Climate Change by 2050
Loss of 20% of all species as habitats vanish
Toxics cause health problems
Oil reach maximum capacity despite higher prices

44. Sample Findings Global 2000 #7
The case of Fuel Wood
¼ use wood for fuel “Poor man’s oil”
By 2000, need exceed supply by 25%
In Sahel (Sahara border) fuel wood gathering full time % family income
No trees left k around cities
Deforestation, erosion, desertification, higher costs, less fuel, and substitution of dung and crop residues.

45. Refutations of Global 2000
Julian Simon Heritage Foundation, Herman Kahn Hudson foundation: “A Resourceful Earth”
“The year 2000 will be less crowded (with more people), less polluted, more stable ecologically, less vulnerable to resource supply disruption. People will be richer and have more food.”

46. Refutations of Global 2000 Assumptions made by Simon and Kahn:
No water shortages
Spread of cheap nuclear power
Air & water pollution overblown problem
US farmland not being urbanized signif.
More than enough farmland
No rapid species loss
More food to feed the hungry
Birth rate down while life expectancy is up

47. Refutation of Global 2000 Simon and Kahn’s Magic:
resource problems become opportunities inviting entrepreneurs to solve them with ingenuity
Wood crisis-coal, coal crisis-oil, whale oil-oil
They spur increases in knowledge which spurs growth
Solutions to problems leave us better off
Ex. Rail to haul coal
Need stimulus for discovery

48. Refutations of Global 2000
Simon & Kahn: People are not just the cause of problems but with training, the means to solve these problems: WE NEED MORE AND BIGGER PROBLEMS
Steven Bardwell “The World Needs 10 Billion People” Fusion Sept. 1981
“Qualitative innovations in technology must be planned on but cannot be planned for”
fusion energy will allow more people and consumption (show chart)

49. Refutation of Global 2000
Bardwell: Convert J curve of productivity to linear curve because:
Higher population leads to increased labor division, ingenuity, ideas, increased productivity
Complex technologies can support more people
More people are required for complex technologies

50. Our Common Future
World Commission on Environment and Development (aka. Brundtland Commission)
Can’t separate economic development from environmental issues
Inequality is main env. & devel. Problem
Problem of the rich over consumption
Problem of the poor natural disaster over time
exploit resources for export, debt, dumb aid, militarization, increase population, unemployment and cities, loss farmers, loss soil, drought and flood

51. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:
Our Common Future 2
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:
Meeting the needs of the present without compromising future generations.
Need for lifestyles within the planet’s ecological means; population size and growth in harmony with environment.

52. UN Conferences
1972 Stockholm conference on the environment, consensus on problems of development.
1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development---Rio
Agenda 21
2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development---Johannesburg

53. Web Sources: The (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Koffi Annan “We The Peoples: The Role of United Nations in the 21st Century.”
Chapter 4 : “Sustaining Our Future.”
Al Gore. An Inconvenient Truth.

54. Lovins: Soft Energy Paths
Renewable energy flows (energy income)
Diverse (many small contributors)
Flexible and low tech
Resilient/ decentralized
Match in scale and geographic distribution to end use needs
Match in environmental quality to end use needs